How long will this last?
- Thread starter Bigdaug
- Start date
What's this about a second wave in China?
Maybe they opened up their wet markets and borders, not to mention other important restrictions, a bit too soon?
Unchecked when this thing got going in the US it was doubling every 4 days. But say it doubles every 10 days...which it has been doing more recently. The 1% become 2%, then 4%, then8%, then16%, then 32%, then 64%....and at that point herd immunity may start to kick in. So basically in 2 months you go from 1% to 64% of the population. And to date in the US it's running around 5% fatal. Even if that number is high (because of untested/unknown numbers of cases) deaths would run into the millions. Even if the true number is closer to 1% fatalities would be around 2.5 million. Even Trump would have a hard time calling that a job well done.
I saw the same guy on CNN. But he had a very strong immune system. Also some of the older people who have been sick are in somewhat stronger, as their bodies have built up several immunities. It is fact now that young people are getting it as well. Very scary. Just wish our world would get back to normal.
Also some older lady was on the Canadian news was close to 100 years of age and she was real sick and she is better now. Wow goes to show you, its weird. I think its what kind of system we have young or old. Eat healthy now. Gets lots of rest, and stay away from others. That is all I can say.
Unfortunately the likes of Canada Man have little to no knowledge of this virus, nor do they understand any facts relating to it, yet they keep posting made up nonsense.
These are the same posters that were touting and some are still touting the Coronavirus is nothing more than the flu. Not understanding the flu last season 2018-2019 in the United States was contacted by more than 35 500 000 people and claimed the lives of over 34 200 people. That's a death rate of 0.096% rounded up it's 0.1%
Meanwhile the first case of the Coronavirus in the United States was confrimed on January 21, 2020 and in less than 3 months there are over 644 000 confirmed cases and 28 500 dead from the Coronavirus. That's a death rate of 4.4% with the almost the same numbers in deaths from the flu which happens in a whole happening in a span of over 3 months.
Flu 0.1% VS 4.4% Coronavirus death rate.
Although in Canada we are fairing slightly better with the death rate being 3.5% with over 28 000 confrimed cases and over 1000 deaths.
What these people also fail to understand is that as the confirmed cases grow and the healthcare becomes over burdened the number of deaths and the death rate will sharply increase.
This is ignorant bullshit.
The death rate is the number of deaths divided by the total number of infections, not the number of known infections.
In Ontario, less than 1% of the population has been tested so far so how the hell can anybody claim to know the total number of infected?
The death rate will not be known until there is extensive anti-body testing.
It will last until China stops trying to cleanse themselves of global genocide, stops the propaganda and applies for re-admission to the human race for one . Also the American the carnival show election has to run it's course as well. Pandemics produced in China are here to stay and will outlast us all.
That’s exactly how death rates are calculated the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases, it’s calculated the same way for the flu as it is the coronavirus.
It’s estimated by some the total death rate for the corona virus to be 1% when its done, and some say between 1.5-2.5%, but ad I stated earlier the death rate has a direct correlation with what countries do as a measure to battle the virus as some countries are well into double digits death rate and some under the 5% range.
It’s also important to note the death rate will start to somewhat neutralize at the tale end of quarantining exactly like it happened in China.
But as some have tried to claim that the death rate is the same as the flu that is false as the flu has a death rate of 0.1%.
LOL as if this is 2 years. Anyway 119 per million is Sweden death vs 80ish in USA there doing worse than the USA by cap. And the USA is bad. Again, the numbers would jump 5 times and be continuous if there was no lock-down so Sweden could have had a per million of about 20 among the lowest in the world. There are dozens of books and articles some on JSTOR (ie free) so . . .
and the "natural" without aid, death rate appears to be c. 17% - which we come close to as hospitals become over full. Of the 1% 4 more people are saved from ventilators of that group for everyone that dies, so as ventilators run out, you get the 5% death rate. As everything runs out you get the 17%death rate -thus the max world death rate, if everything that could go wrong did (and we are way past this) is about 800 million world wide - we are less than 1% of the burn out rate of the virus. At this rate it will take about 100 months (logarithmic expansion +social distancing) for the virus to run its natural course., At 18 months we will have a vaccine plus or minus., In Ontario we will have over 3k dead by mid May, probably 2 or 4 times more. UNLESS its flattening now, which it maybe that 1k -3k instead
That is a flawed methodology and testing 1% of the population is a statistically insignificant sampling.
For simplicity, let`s use round numbers.
Let`s say at the time we hit 500 deaths, 100,000 have been tested and 10,000 people have been found to be infected. The death rate would be 5%.
Let`s say at the same time of 500 deaths, 500,000 have been tested and 50,000 have been found to be infected. The death rate would be 1%.
Let`s say at the same time of 500 deaths, 1,000,000 have been tested and 100,000 have been found to be infected. The death rate would be 0.5%.
All of these examples are for the exact same time and number of deaths. The only variable is the capacity to test.
When testing is lacking and lagging, the statistics are not accurate.
The extreme example of this is at the beginning of the testing.
People are dying before they can even do the testing so there is a time when the number of known infections is double the number of deaths. Does this mean the death rate was 50%?
As testing catches up, this number goes down.
Right now testing is still severely lacking and lagging as Ontario is just now approaching 1% of the population.
The death rate is not going to neutralize, it is the statistics that are going to catch up to reality.
The death rate will go down when treatments improve.
Last edited:
The methodology used in calculating the death rate for Covid19 is no different than how it's used for the flu, SARS, MERS and so on.
To assume we have to test everyone to get the correct death for the Coronavirus is being ignorant and irrational. During the SARS outbreak there were less people tested for the virus than there are testing for the Coronavirus, we didn't test the whole population or on mass to get a different death rate than what was associated with SARS and we won't be doing that with the Coronovirus.
Death rate will always be the numbers of death divided by the confirmed cases.
I mentioned earlier no one can fully know what the death rate will be until this thing is over, there are estimates out there that it's 1% around the world and other estimates that it's going to be 1.5-2.5% overall around the world.
The death rate will have a direct corellation with what measures each country takes to fight the virus.
We have a country like Italy that was extremely late to enforce quarantines, cancellation of flights and non essential travel and people weren't adhering to the laws, and they have a death rate of 13% to the confirmed cases, then there is a country like Germany that is enforcing self isolation rules and cancelled non essential travel, is testing on mass scale, people are adhering to the laws and they have a death rate of just over 2.8% to the confirmed cases.
Are testing limited and lagging to what they should be? yes absolutely in many countries, but that doesn't mean that the statistics are not accurate to the current numbers. Death rate will always be the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases.
The death rate will eventually neutralize due to more testing being done, and also less infection rates if mass self isolation rules are adherered to.
To assume that the death rate of the Coronavirus is the same as the flu, or to label the Coronavirus as a mild flu is nothing short of ignorance when all evidence has proved and is still proving otherwise.
Nobody is saying that you need to test everybody.
You do need to test a significant number of people, randomly from a broad demographic, in order to get a reasonably accurate current extrapolation.
I am not one of those claiming that it is just the flu.
Why is the number of new infections in Ontario basically the same every day for so long now?
It is because they are doing a tiny amount of testing and focusing on those who are most likely to be sick, of which there will be no shortage any time soon.
It is quite possible that the curve has been flattened but it won`t show with this process.
we have been home for close to a month.....you would be feeling sick by now if you potentially have it . we should be able to call in and report if we are experiencing symtoms....we could know how many people in Canada potentially have it right away
The problem is that some studies have shown that numerous people don`t show any symptoms but they can still spread the virus.
Some anti-body tests in other countries have shown that the infection rate is way higher than reported and the death rate is way lower.
You can not test a significant number of people for the Coronavirus if they are not showing any sympotms, just like we didn't test for SARS, MERS or people going to the hospital for the flu if it's a mild case or no symptoms.
I believe if we want to get a sense of what the death rate is based on widespread testing we would have to look at a country that is not only administering more tests than others but also a country that has a fair sample size aka a fair amount of population 50M+.
The only countries that fit that description of 50M+ are Germany and Italy and both are now doing prevalent testing. Germany is testing 20.6k/1M people and Italy 19.4k/1M. Spain is administering a lot of tests, their population is close to that number too 46M and they are at 19.8k/1M.
Unfortunately the death rate in Italy is 13% of confirmed cases and in Germany 2.8% of confirmed cases. In Spain it's 10.8% of confirmed cases and all these 3 countries are testing at a significantly larger percentage than other developed and populated nations.
To put it into perspective Canada is only administering 12.3k/1M tests for the Coronovirus which is significantly lower.
But then the problem is one country is Germany, a country that is probably the most tactically sound nation in the world when it comes to pretty much anything, so their numbers can be a lot lower compared to other nations.
Then the other two are Italy and Spain where both were extremely late to take measures like social distancing and cancelling of non essential travel to curb the spread of the virus which many people were not adhering to.
So like I said the exact death rate will not be known until it's over but the death rate is calculated by the numbers of death divided by the current confirmed cases. Regardless of what the confirmed cases pool represents in a percentage.
Many keep trying to minimize the death rate of the Coronvirus and compare it to the flu with the evidence continuously proving otherwise, unfortunately for the most part these people are the same that are trying to open up the economy for their own selfish gains.
At very low calculations the Coronavirus is 10X more deadlier than the flu.
0.1% VS 1% of the confirmed cases.
