Will Aaron Judge win the AL Triple Crown?
- Thread starter onomatopoeia
- Start date
I learned as a 9 year old reading Bill James Baseball Abstract in the 1980s, that emphasizing batting average was not a good way to evaluate a player.
Not to say that Gallo has been anything but hot garbage this year. Nor am I big fan of his. . But focusing on his .200 career average so much is flawed when he has a career OBP of .326 which is not that far from league average.
For context purposes Joe Carter has a career OBP of .306.. with an average of .259. .
Taking Gallo’s power with his not so terrible OBP means that he has been a fairly decent major leaguer … up to this year anyway, despite his obvious flaws. Using Joe Carter as an example again — Gallo had 15 career WAR in.2800 plate appearances… Carter had 20 WAR career in 9200 plate appearances.
Of course struggling so much on the big stage the last 14 months is not going to help him on his next contract. I agree he will not get tendered because that costs around 18 million or so at this point. I estimate his next contract is going to be a 1 year deal between 4 to 7 million.
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Judge will likely end up with the best Offensive WAR season since Barry Bonds in 2004… and if we exclude Bonds, the best offensive WAR since Mickey Mantle in 1961.
This is one of the most dominant seasons in a long time. Need to remember that offence and homers are down a fair bit across baseball this year, and that MLB likely took a bit of juice out off the ball.
Judge is the clear MVP in my view over Ohtani this year. Ohtani is actually having a much better pitching value year in 2022, but his offensive impact is down as well.
This is one of the most dominant seasons in a long time. Need to remember that offence and homers are down a fair bit across baseball this year, and that MLB likely took a bit of juice out off the ball.
Judge is the clear MVP in my view over Ohtani this year. Ohtani is actually having a much better pitching value year in 2022, but his offensive impact is down as well.
Except that pitchers have finally realized it's best not to give him much of anything to hit like they did to Bonds(finally
)Heck at this point there's not even a guarantee that he'll hit 62. Now just 5 game left in the season. It's kinda funny how people thought he actually ever had a chance at Bond's 73
The real home run record is 61, the rest were juiced. But I read somewhere players way back when were using too.Except that pitchers have finally realized it's best not to give him much of anything to hit like they did to Bonds(finally
Heck at this point there's not even a guarantee that he'll hit 62. Now just 5 game left in the season. It's kinda funny how people thought he actually ever had a chance at Bond's 73
For my money this is the real single season home run leader right here.
Babe had 691 PA's whereas Judge had 689. So there's that while we are splitting hairs.
Ruth Would have hit 104 home runs by todays standards according to the book ''The Year Babe Ruth Hit 104 Home Runs: Recrowning Baseball's Greatest Slugger'' by Bill Jenkinson.
A quote from Reddit ''umpires called any ball that went over the fence in fair territory but then landed in foul territory a foul ball; you couldn’t hook a ball around the foul pole for a home run as you can today. There was a rope attached to the foul pole stretching back to a second foul pole at the rear wall of the bleachers; the ball had to land in fair territory no matter how far you hit it. Ruth’s 60th home run in 1927 was said to have cleared the fence clearly fair but landed close enough to the line some argued it should have been called foul. By today’s standards there would have been no debate. Baseball writer Bill Jenkinson’s research concluded Ruth lost dozens of home runs to this rule.''
Also from Reddit. ''Objectively, the Babe hit dozens and dozens more homers due to that rule and cavernous outfields. He has a few more conclusions, but they're slightly subjective. For example, he thinks The Bambino's totals would not have significantly changed if baseball had been integrated, since he batted even better against Negro League teams. Remember, the Sultan of Swat was a barnstormer (even during the regular season), and he would play against anyone, anywhere. Jenkinson looked at 38 games he played against Negro major leagues teams' best pitchers, including, yes, Satchel Paige, and the King of Crash slugged over a thousand.'' So there goes the not integrated theory when applied to Ruth.
281 ft (86 m) 395 ft (120 m) 460 ft (140 m) 490 ft (150 m) 429 ft (131 m) 350 ft (110 m) 295 ft (90 m) 82 ft (25 m)
Left Field Straight Away Left Left Center Deep Center Right Center Straight Away Right Right Field
So in 1927 this is what the Babe was facing.........Bottom line you better pull the ball.
Gallo's .443 strikeout average negates some of the impact of his on base percentage. K's don't move base runners.
I got a signed letter from Bill James in 1986. I had done a statistical analysis of left-handed pitchers who moved between the two leagues, emphasizing that they had considerably better stats in their first season in a new League, but they reverted to their previous performance level in their second and subsequent seasons. James said he didn't understand the point I was trying to make, and also pointed out that I had misspelled Roger Clemens' name in my letter.
I think he turned down about $31M per year. I'm guessing $37.5M, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 40.
It used to be a big deal when players started getting over $100K/year.
Yes he turned down a 7 year term for a total of 213 million.
Word is he wants a longer term.
If you're the Yankees fan you don't want to go full Albert Pujols here.
The scuttlebutt is that they won't extend the term but will up the yearly.
Maybe 7 years at 280 or something closer to that. He'll make a great first bagger after the age of 35 I figure. Give him a longer career.
There's also a possibility that they let him walk and gear up for Ohtani after next year.
But whatever they do they can't let the Mets grab him. The ghost of George Steinbrenner would haunt them for an eternity.....
I read somewhere though that ground rule doubles were considered home runs back in the 1920's. Anyone know if that's true?
As well, bullpens weren't deep and starters were expected to pitch complete games routinely.
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So he didn’t end up with the Triple Crown. He lost the BA Title…. but he should 100% without a doubt win the MVP. Where would the Yankees be without him this year?
Philip
He really is. He brings that child/player magic, fan connection. I absolutely love that stuff.
Philip
- Jun 15, 2004
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I like how he has been talking lately about the honour of being mentioned with the Yankee greats. I hope he stays in New York. I think the Roger Maris Junior thing had a pretty strong impact on Judge. The San Francisco thing looked like it might happen……but I’d rather see Judge stay in New York. This whole home-run chase has been so fantastic to watch.
Philip
I think the Yanks have no choice. They're the richest team. The Bronx may be set afire if they let him go.
- Jun 15, 2004
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I watched the Blue Jays play in New York in August. There were two things I noticed. 1) How well Bluejay fans travel, because they were all over the Times Square area where we stayed, and filled in Yankee Stadium. It was actually insane. 2) Aaron Judge is a god in New York. I would take a shot at saying at least 5% of the entire city has Aaron Judge jerseys. Everywhere at all times. From the World Trade Centre to north of Harlem. Lol.
If they let Judge walk, Cashman might be assassinated.
Philip
