And Trudeau's press conference drives your dollar down more today! I love Canadians, I love Toronto but you guys would be better off with Justin Bieber than Trudeau. By the way, the GF is NOT latex. Beautiful E.I. Sihk from Brampton. Hey, we fucked up with Obama; Canada fucked up with Trudeau. Both just "talkers" with no experience.
We need Trudeau to tell Trump to
- Thread starter lumenon9
- Start date
Actually Trump is afraid of conflict, face to face, but he loves to sow it This is why he tweeted his attack from 35K feet over the pacific instead of face to face. They really need to corner the guy and tell him to fuck himself.
Well ok then. So I guess Kathleen disliking Trudeau for increasing debt and deficits (hint: Trump's spending increases and deficits will last a decade) and liking Trump for finishing May with the lowest unemployment rate in 18 years (hint: 5.8% is the lowest in 42 years) somehow makes sense to you? I guess it would, if you're clueless. BTW, employment stats are collected using similar methodologies by Stats Can as well as the BLS. So your post was kind of pointless since any argument you think you're trying to make, applies on both sides of the border).
Didn't do it to his face did he? I saw Trump say a lot of things on the podium but never to Hillarys face.
You definitely missed his point. Kathleen had explained why she felt Trump was a better position and leader than Trudeau. essguy correctly pointed out that the situation for Trump and Trudeau are pretty much the same - low unemployment, very high spending and deficits - and that it wasn't valid for Kathleen to use this information is a differentiator.
It's funny, I've been making a similar point to many of Terb's right-wing population for the last month (Phil, OTB, etc.) and they don't get it.
The US unemployment number is well defined, consistently calculated and backed by scientific method - but doesn't tell a complete story. It doesn't communicate the nature of the jobs: contract vs full-time, under-employed, changes to salary and benefits, part-time vs full-time, people who have left the job market (retirees), etc. Nor can the employment number, as a single economic indicator be used for any type of meaningful conclusion. Further, very low unemployment numbers can actually be a very bad thing! Especially when combined with high gov't spending on non-capital projects, high debt, low interest rates, inflation pressures, wage pressures - it's the perfect storm.
I have two points here:
1) Due to the size of the US market, the US is in the driver's seat in these negotiations. Very little Trudeau or any other Cdn leader can do about that. In a non-Trump world, leaders would attempt to negotiate an agreement that benefits both sides long term while minimizing harm to either .... in truth the US would have to kind to Canada in return for other benefits (relationship, political support, other future considerations, etc). So, IMHO, Trudeau initially did the right thing - be low key, stroke Trump's ego, stress our amazing relationship, tactfully appeal to the leaders of the US States most impacted and gently correct Trump's miss-information about the trade imbalance in the US public's eyes.
2) Unfortunately this is currently a Trump world. Trump is attempting to use the same nickle-and-dime negotiating tactics from his real-estate businesses on the world stage, hampered by his short attention span and easily bruised ego. Trump is a bully with a massive ego and so far all of his policies and actions reflect that mind-set. Trump will interact with and negotiate with the US allies as though he was dealing with a small subcontractor on one of his properties - he thinks he has all the advantages, he doesn't respect them, he doesn't "care" about any future possible dealing or relationships, it's only about his personal gain. He will attempt to dominate negotiations, he will use threats and misinformation to his benefit and he doesn't worry about the long-term equality of the deal. Once completed, he will renege on the deal without hesitation and blame everyone else. This is the exact reason Trump's business have done poorly in the last few years and his brand is in full decline. No major developer wants to partner with him, no US bank wants to lend him money, small subcontractors won't deal with him (driving his costs up), city gov't block his every move and inspectors are all over his projects and LE and the press watch him like hawks.
^^--- Putin chose well. Trump is a disruptive influence both within the US and on the world stage.
The issue here is that the jobs (make America Great Again) will never come back as before. The car factories and steel mills employ about 10% of the workers they used to employ in the good old days. Bloomberg wrote recently in an article that the Tesla factory has gone even further and is 95% robotic.
High tech manufacturing has been shifted to Asia, and inevitably Design, Development and R&D has followed. USA has no advantage over Asia in High Tech, where goods can be shipped cheaply (for software 0 cost) worldwide.
We are now even seeing retail and service jobs being automated. MacDonald has kiosks for ordering, and will soon have robots for flipping burgers. Walmart is going for automated checkout counters.
There will never anymore be enough jobs. Half the population will be out of the labour market. There are already 100,000,000 non working Americans.
One, as you note, the US has massively more bargaining power in these negotiations - bargaining power they've declined to exercise in the past - so Canada isn't used to it. Instead, we are used to being treated like the branch plant economy we used to be.
In such a negotiation, a negotiator working with less power has to figure out what the other side wants more than anything else, because while bargaining strength may guarantee that the stronger party will get more of what it wants, it doesn't guarantee it will get what it wants the most. Fortunately, it's easy to determine what that is in this case. Trump wants manufacturing jobs to either return from Mexico (not Canada, because not many were lost to us) or at least to stop the bleeding. Also, fortunately, Canada would benefit from that same transition (both Canada and the US lost many middle class manufacturing jobs to Mexico). The key to this negotiation is to HELP TRUMP get what he needs politically. That's how you EARN a relationship as a political ally. Do that, and the tariff nonsense will all disappear.
It is foolish and unproductive to dig your heels in in a fight with someone 10 weight classes higher.
It's also true that often in negotiations there is a substantial difference between the skills and insight of the parties. However, both countries need there to be a deal, because both would suffer without it. In such cases, one side may have to do the thinking for both parties. In this circumstance, Trudeau and his team appear to have no clue how to move towards the deal. The US team will have to literally tell them how to get there (off the record), and then the Trudeau team can claim to have had great insight and strategy when the deal comes together. As if it needs to be said, Trump is all about loyalty.
Logical next move is for Trump to focus on a Mexico trade deal in isolation and see if they can see the writing on the wall.
I realize you can't get into specifics, but I'd be curious as to what business you are in? I'm senior sales/marketing management in IT services and do extensive business in NYC as well as the rest of the US. NYC business men are certainly no-nonsense, aggressive negotiators, but if you understand your market and competition and the core requirements of your customer, a mutually profitable relationship is always possible. If I find myself dealing with a smaller business that is attempting to use every nasty tactic in the book, I simply explain our benefits, provide a price, show a sincere desire to work with them and leave - you never know what might happen, but you have to be willing to walk. If it doesn't work-out, I'm happy to let my competition deal with the Trumps .... knowing they will make little margin on the deal.
I find the real problems are on the delivery side. American senior business men are very quick to make big buy decisions, but are NOT detail oriented. They leave that to their managers. If something goes wrong, they will demand you to fix it immediately (even if it was their screw-up) or they will quickly cancel the contract and move to another vendor. As a result, I make sure my contracts are iron-clad: costs are covered up-front, the deliverables are described in detail, the liquidated damages are detailed and a dispute process is described. I always use great lawyers <-- I don't want to make American businessmen sound bad as they are not - Cdn managers are too slow to decide and very risk averse, but are loyal, fair and tolerate of problems. America business men are faster to make big dollar decisions, the deals are MUCH larger, are much more responsive to rapidly changing market conditions, will spend as long as there is a business case, but are not detailed focus, do not want to deal with headaches, little loyality and will bail just as fast.
Gotta agree with the other Terbites on this one. Trump rarely is confrontational face-to-face, including with Hillary in the debates. Trump typically uses Twitter or the press/campaign podium for his attacks - a medium where he can't easily be called out on his BS. The few times he's done a one-on-one interview, if he senses he's being backed into a corner, he simply interrupts and babbles non-stop. He's not good on his feet and his ad-lib rhetoric is dated and simplistic.
That said, Trump is damn good at it, look at what he accomplished in the election! Thanks G*d Trump is not an evil man, I do believe he wants to do good by people (as long as he personally benefits to the max).
I didn't speak to any of that, but I 110% agree. The US can't possibly compete in a global market where margins are heavily influenced by labour costs for all the reasons discussed many times here on Terb. That's why the US (and Canada) must focus on IP and automation (like Germany) and not just in the manufacturing sector. That famed Carrier plant where Trump visited during his campaign is a perfect example. Carrier still laid-off ~half the employees immediately and has since invested heavily in automation and just a short time ago laid off most of the remaining employees. Sucks, but today's reality.
Wow, we agree! Next beer is on me Bud!
One detail though. You stated "Trump wants manufacturing jobs to either return from Mexico (not Canada, because not many were lost to us), or at least stop the bleeding". This is certainly true, but as you also even more correctly stated "has to figure out what the other side wants more than anything else" ---- IMHO what TRUMP REALLY WANTS is to be perceived to be the savour of the US economy, be historically regarded as a brilliant negotiator and leader, be labeled as the best POTUS since Reagan and be worshipped by everyone (I admit I'm being a little dramatic). Re jobs - Trump will simply lie and tell everyone he saved a million jobs and if someone tries to correct him, he will simply attack with the full power of his office.
So I agree Canada is the little guy at the table and our negotiation tactics must reflect our position. Trudeau should not dig his heels in, he should not argue publicly with the President and he SHOULD NOT in any way be critical of Trump personally. Trudeau should bite Cdn pride and publically agree that NAFTA did indeed favour Canada (true or not) because of our smaller economy and more delicate (fragile?) business models and we appreciate the US for treating us well and that indeed we are open to restructuring in the new agreement. Give Trump his high-profile win, compliment the sh*t out of him in a non-partizing manner and then let the back-door negotiations begin. No tariffs should also mean no subsidies and both sides need to protect critical industries for national interests. Canadians can always choose not to buy American milk.
So has he attempted to "put Hillary in Jail"?? Yet another lie that all the Trumptard Cult Followers bought during the campaign with their chants of "Jail Her".
Let's look at reality. Most of Trump's staff are heading in that direction and no doubt TRUMP WILL BE IMPEACHED!! It is coming, and Go Mueller Go, as there is a lot more to come with Trump's sleazy underhand dealings whether political or personal.
Let us face the true facts. Trudeau said exactly the same thing that he said before Trump visited. i.e. the Security threats to the USA were an insult to Canada. He did not change his stance as nothing as such was achieved at the G7 summit. Trump lied when he called it a 10. CNN rightly pointed out that it was 10 out of 100 as Trump ran away from the summit even earlier than he was supposed to do so. Canada is the USA's largest trade partner and no doubt the USA surplus with Canada could be affected if there is a trade war. Trump will change his stance as this was surely a move to show Kim Jong On that he is a "Tough Guy" and will not take any crap. But the North Koreans have no doubt sussed him out, will probably blame him and then get it as an excuse to reopen their trade relations with China and other countries who are sick of Trump's melodrama!!
Winners will be China who are going to steal the normal American strategy, not the Trumpty Dumpty insanity!!
I'm not sure what your point is.
I believe your points are accurate, but it doesn't change my opinion that Trudeau has taken the wrong approach with negotiations.Worse thing Trudeau could have done was insult Trump or make him look bad. Trump is a vengeful person with a very long memory and he wields a massive, massive stick. It's personal now. It's totally irrelevant whether Canada is morally right and/or Trump is a liar.
Tariffs hurt Canadians especially the poor by raising prices as the added cost is passed on to the consumer creating inflation. Dollarama is already talking about increasing prices due to Canadian imposed tariffs.
https://globalnews.ca/news/4262466/dollarama-prices-canada-us-tariffs/
But for Justin it's a win-win situation. The Federal government gets the tariff revenue and also the increased HST revenue on higher prices.
And it's ironic that the left is now all for NAFTA seeing how Chretien and the Liberals won an election promising to cancel it. Sheila Copps even staked her seat on it and had to resign when they flip-flopped on the matter. (she bizarrely ran again to replace herself).
https://globalnews.ca/news/4262466/dollarama-prices-canada-us-tariffs/
But for Justin it's a win-win situation. The Federal government gets the tariff revenue and also the increased HST revenue on higher prices.
And it's ironic that the left is now all for NAFTA seeing how Chretien and the Liberals won an election promising to cancel it. Sheila Copps even staked her seat on it and had to resign when they flip-flopped on the matter. (she bizarrely ran again to replace herself).
The CNN rightly pointed out the true facts of this whole scenario. So here is the full story and read about the Trump unpredictability that all the news media are familiar with and it was no surprise. After the Singapore Summit we have to see whether Trump will even remember what he twitted anyway. No one in Canada is blaming Trudeau for saying what he did, as if he said it went well, no doubt that would have been fodder for the Canadian Alt Right wing press:I'm not sure what your point is.
Worse thing Trudeau could have done was insult Trump or make him look bad. Trump is a vengeful person with a very long memory and he wields a massive, massive stick. It's personal now. It's totally irrelevant whether Canada is morally right and/or Trump is a liar.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/11/politics/donald-trump-g7-chaos/index.html
Now it is Trudeau, and the next time it will be Macron or Merkel or May. The 3Ms that Trump has a love / hate relationship besides Trudeau.
That's funny. I guess you never watched any of his political campaign debates "face to face" and he is a hardened New Yorker, dealing for years in one of the toughest real estate markets in the world and you think he is afraid of face to face conflict? Duhhhhhhh! What are you smokin??? I worked for five years in the Wall Street area and let me tell you its a cold day in Hell when a New York businessman is afraid of face to face conflict, let alone someone that dealt on Trump's level.
Again .... I believe all your information to be true. BTW, today, the EU stood-up in support of Canada: https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/worl...fter-trumps-sharp-words/ar-AAyuY44?li=AAggNb9
Also again ..... it doesn't change my opinion that Trudeau has taken the wrong approach with negotiations. Trump and his team clearly have a different and erratic approach to negotiations and they hold most of the advantages. Trudeau and team needed to adjust accordingly - either lead the negotiations (tough to do) or adapt to what Trump really wants. IMO, initially JT did okay, but Trump is irrational and unpredictable (not in a good way) and found the need to take cheap shots (semi-untrue) at Canada. As a proud Canadian, my first thought was to tell Trump to stop lying and F-U. But that ain't gonna work with the Trumpster, he a megalomaniac and a liar and he never forgets a grudge.
