Ufc 111 St.Pierre vs Hardy

[Questor]

Hardy at +450 means that if you wager $100 on Hardy and he wins, your return is $450.

GSP at -800 means that to win $100 with GSP you have wager $800. so if GSP loses your out $800.

Don't really get sportsinteraction.com to be honest with you. there's no way that you can wager $1 on GSP and win $1.14.

He's to heavy a favourite.

I need some explaining on that one

Thanks for the 'splanation. For the sportsinteraction one, I take that to mean you pay a dollar on the bet...he wins you collect $1.14. You are only winning 14 cents since you already put the dollar down for the bet. Those odds seem in line with the other ones you explained.

At those odds, it sounds like the odds makers have been monitoring GSP's poutine intake and have decided its within reason. I think you'd have to be crazy to make the bet either way. The payoff is so slim on GSP, why risk the $800. And Hardy is such a long shot, you might as well kiss good bye to your $100. I think I would rather just watch and enjoy the fight without betting.

 

[dj1470]

but the other post show hardy as fav who is the fav in this fight going be a good one I think.

If I read your post correctly (?) I have to say no.
Hardy is not the favourite.
Not even close.

 

[21pro]

agreed with others that it's GSP and not even close, however, this should make it interesting:

there is a good chance on GSP reinjuring his groin. it has been bothering him in training.

we'll see. GSP won his last match with that same injury. what an athlete.

 

[dj1470]

agreed with others that it's GSP and not even close, however, this should make it interesting:

there is a good chance on GSP reinjuring his groin. it has been bothering him in training.

we'll see. GSP won his last match with that same injury. what an athlete.

Yes it's a concern but if GSP can grind down Thiago Alves with a hurt groin then Hardy will be no problem if he hurts it again. Another bad sign for Hardy. The UFC billed Alves in the last GSP fight as the "bigger, stronger, faster challenger" and GSP dominated even with a hurt groin. This fight will be horrendous for Hardy. GSP will bully and humiliate him for 2 rounds and then finish him off. This fight nis a no-brainer. Just like Anderson Silva, GSP has no competition in his league right now. Dana does his best to prop up opponents but people who know the score see right through the UFC propaganda.

 

[The Oracle]

there is a good chance on GSP reinjuring his groin. it has been bothering him in training..

Do you have a source for this statement?

 

[dj1470]

Do you have a source for this statement?

It absolutely doesn't matter.
If he was too hurt he wouldn't fight. GSP is not stupid.
Even hurt GSP is too much for Hardy.

 

[Hurricane Hank]

Hmmm.....I think HArdy is better than you think. He has a way of making that one hit that stuns his opponenet.

Is there a legtal way to bet on these fights in Canada? I'd like to place a hundred bucks on Hardy, if the odds are good,

I see Hardy at a price of +575. For your $100 wager, your profit would be $575.
Best price I see on GSP is -700. You have to risk $700 to profit $100.

 

[quickshot]

what website is it on

 

[dcbogey]

Either GSP didn't want to break Hardy's arm or Hardy is one tough, strong SOB!

Twice!

 

[dj1470]

Total GSP domination making Hardy look like a chump. GSP is in a different universe. Props to Hardy though for having a high threshold of pain.
Carwin destroys Mir. Quick strikes and easy stoppage. Lesnar was there and couldn't resist getting in the ring and acting like a complete idiot.
Bocek got robbed by the judges. Bocek won his fight. Miller won maybe one round if that. Completely robbed by inept judging.
I don't remember the other fights really unless to say Fitch and Pellegrino both won.

 

[The Oracle]

So what did we learn:

-Hardy is one tough SOB. Aside from Renzo Gracie and a few others everyone else on the planet would have tapped both on the arm bar as well as the kimura.

- Bocek won that fight 29-28 IMHO. Controlled the pace and dictated the action. I just shook my head.

_ Fitch is still Fitch. He just grinds out victories but GSP is just better at the same game.

- Carwin is for real. The ref Dan M just let Mir get pounded on when he was obviously out. Not cool.

- Nate Diaz looked the mirror image of his brother and is going to give the 170lb division fits with his unusual style.

 

[C Dick]

Lesnar was more restrained than I expected, I thought he was pretty restrained compared to some of his prior antics. And he could have gloated at his buddy Mir, but he didn't. Carwin impressed me, he finished Mir off pretty easily.

But what's up with GSP, how could he not finish Hardy, when Hardy could do nothing? It was like the GSP Fitch fight, but worse. It seemed to us like GSP cranked the arm (twice), to give Hardy a chance to tap. Hardy didn't, so GSP had to decide to break the arm, or let go, so he let go, but he could have chosen to break it. I really could not determine what GSP was trying to do, he would take him down whenever he wanted, and quickly get to mount or side or back control, but then he would just hang out. Or he would land a really hard knee to the ribs, and then not keep doing it. It was like he did not want to finish. It confused us.

 

[Manji]

- I thought the Bocek/Miller fight could have gone either way....Bocek should have won but I didn't think it he was robbed by the judges....
The First round belonged to Miller and Second went to Bocek....The Third could have gone either way...The third round could have been Bocek's round but he kind of fucked it up by letting the fight end with Miller on his back...
You never want to end the last ten seconds of the fight with your opponent finishing in an advantageous position because its leaves a strong impression on the judges...
Bocek really needs to work on his stand up it could have made a difference in that fight...

-I doubt Nate Diaz could hang with the Top Contenders at 170....Beating Rory Markham is one thing but I very much doubt he could hang with Koscheck, Alves or Fitch (he lost to Joe Stevenson and Gray Maynard at 155)...Diaz just doesn't have the size or strength to fight at 170 and is better suited at 155.

-Carwin was impressive but he did look small against Lesnar...It will be an interesting fight but he won't be able to control through the clinch and dirty box Lesnar like he did to Mir that's for sure....Lesnar's gas tank and ring rust may be an issue when he come back after the long lay off and sickness ....

-Fitch will still not be be able to beat GSP....Koschek should be the next contender as he has the best chance of all the contenders of beating GSP...

- As for GSP..The fight against Hardy actually made him look unimpressive and uninspiring...He couldn't finish Hardy (another decision win)....

He fought not to lose rather than fight to win....He just relied on his takedowns and just prefered to use his wrestling to control the fight...Didn't try to really engage him standing up.....I know its part of the game and some fighters will play the "safe" game to win but I rather see a Sakuraba type fight (fighters who remember that they are entertainers as well as fighters) then a GSP type fight....

Right now I would rather see any of the other UFC champions or contenders (Penn, Anderson, Machida or Shogun - even Lesnar or Carwin) fight rather than GSP....

-Hardy was tough but not that tough....GSP fucked up on the armbar and you could see that Hardy was turning his arm before the submission really sunk in (GSP crossed his feet which prevented hiim squeezing his knees together to control Hardy's arm) ....The Kimura was tighter but GSP still didn't control the arm properly to lock in the submission and tear the elbow or shoulder out...

Miller's Kimura on Bocek was pretty tight and you could see that Bocek was close to tapping...

 

[Top Jimmy]

Mir/Carwin looked as close to fixed as I've seen since that other promotion had guys jobbing to Kimbo Slice.

GSP really seemed to lack that killer instinct. He had Hardy twice, never leveraged the armbar, just held the wrist. Next, he ties up the Kimura, and then when Hardy doesn't tap at first, GSP looks directly at both corners and the ref, as if to say "Do I have to break it??", and then lets Hardy get out of it. Even when he had Hardy down, one arm pinned, he never really went after him with any enthusiasm. I appreciate a guy who sticks to his gameplan as much as the next guy, but watching him totally dominate position, and then turn in side control to punch Hardy in the stomach makes no sense. You can tell me that you are softening him up in round 1 or 2, but not with 1:40 left in the 5th...

I get it, he played it safe and dominated Hardy, and Hardy barely touched him all night. GSP is going to develope that reputation like Silva, of not being able to deliver a finish.

That, or George had $20 on it going the distance...

 

[Toronto Passions]

Total GSP domination making Hardy look like a chump. GSP is in a different universe. Props to Hardy though for having a high threshold of pain.

I agree 100%.

I thought Hardy tapped out with that arm lock GSP had on him. Total props to Hardy. He spent nearly the whole match on his back. Lol.

 

[Manji]

I get it, he played it safe and dominated Hardy, and Hardy barely touched him all night. GSP is going to develope that reputation like Silva, of not being able to deliver a finish.
.

Which Silva are you talking about?

Anderson!?!?
Anderson has had only fight where it went the distance! And he took a lot of flack for that for playing it safe (unlike GSP who plays it safe every fight) even though Thales Leites fell on his ass at every opportunity....

Or Wanderlai!?!?
After so many Huge Wars in Pride Wanderlai is not the fighter that he used to be but he still tries to bring it and make his fights entertaining....

So who are you talking about?

Unless you meant Joe Silva? The UFC matchmaker (the guy who arranges the fights in the UFC!!) The little guy with the goatee who enters the ring after the fights with Dana...

 

[21pro]

it was a good, entertaining night, but sex is still better.

 

[Captain Fantastic]

I will add to the the revered Manji's thoughts on this.

Georges St. Pierre is turning into a modified "lay and pray" specialist. It's an effective technique and GSP is absolutely dominant at being able to take his opponent where he wants and keep him there, but it's boring as hell to watch.

Other than matches where he overpowered greatly undersized opponents or guys he has previously beaten (Matt Hughes III, Matt Serra II and BJ Penn II*) GSP has looked like a guy just trying to control position to win, rather than be the dynamic, all-around threat that he he was earlier in his career. Think Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, Thiago Alves and now Dan Hardy. All good fighters, but not great ones.

I'm shocked that he hasn't improved his ground and pound or his submissions (that armbar against Hardy was sloppy) to take advantage of the dominant position he always has. This is not like Anderson Silva, who appears bored and disinterested - almost sparring or shadowboxing with them - when fighting guys who have no business in the cage with him, like Thales Leites and Patrick Cote, and possibly Demian Maia next month.)

Part of me wonders if the loss to Serra made GSP, dare I say it, gunshy?

If so, it's somewhat understandable, but what GSP and his team might not realize is that it will lead to the fans turning on him - hoping that he loses and once he does, he'll become a semi-pariah. I think the same will happen to Floyd Mayweather Jr. if and when he fights Manny Pacquiao and loses.



The Shane Carwin - Frank Mir match wasn't entirely shocking - Carwin has thunder in his fists and Mir's clench fighting was surprisingly atrocious. One would think a veteran like Mir would try a little harder to dictate the terms of the fight. Kudos to Carwin - he's legit.

As for Brock acting like an "idiot" or a "goof," who do you think told him to go in the cage? Dana White - to hype the next fight. (Lesnar left before the GSP fight and was only in NJ to go in the cage to "challenge" the winner.) Seriously, you guys who don't like Lesnar have to get over it and realize that MMA is a business. And Brock is good - GREAT - for business.

I found the rest of the card sub-par for a PPV. Especially given the poor showings in the main event. And the refereeing was abysmal. The Palhares extended heel hook on Drwal (which, injurious or not, deserved "Submission of the Night" over Pellegrino's choke) and Carwin repeatedly pounding on the back of Mir's head and then being allowed to smash an unconscious Mir 4-5 times were both unfathomable.

Mir/Carwin looked as close to fixed as I've seen since that other promotion had guys jobbing to Kimbo Slice.

Between this and the "Silva" comment, I'd say you don't get out much, do you?

 

[Smash]

Georges St. Pierre is turning into a modified "lay and pray" specialist. It's an effective technique and GSP is absolutely dominant at being able to take his opponent where he wants and keep him there, but it's boring as hell to watch.

Thankkk you. I've been sayin this for over 2 years now. 2 years ago when I mentioned it everybody flamed me for "hatin" on GSP.

See..
"05-22-2008 04:35 AM #30 John_E_Depth
Posts:636 It seems like GSP is playin it safe and knows he can controll every opponent on the ground therefore theres no need to risk kicking/punching and getting caught with a counter punch. We all know what can happen if he tries to exchange punch's with a puncher ala Serra vs GSP #1. The second time he fought Serra he barely threw any punch's in hopes not too get caught by Matt's heavy hands again. I wonder if GSP has changed for the worse and is now happy with grinding out a win"

IMO I think GSP is so use to useing his superior wrestling skillz to take down and lay on opponents until they tire out. He now forgot how to submitt guys. He had Hardy in crazy holds but couldnt finish him not cuz Hardy's superman or anything but GSP's bjj skillz miight be overated (yea, I said it). I think his striking and bjj skillz are not as goos as you would think since he got knocked the f-out by Serra, couldnt finish off Finch and now couldnt finish off Hardy after getting him in numerous holdz.

I've rolled with a brown belt in bjj and beleive me when they apply a armbar, triangle hold on you its Painfull, you tap instantly. In real life those holds are painfull "IF" executed properly and I dont care who you are you tap f-ing fasst.

Look at it this wayy. If Frank Mir got anyone in those holds that GSP had Hardy in they would be toast and minus one arm.
GSP is boring to watch and if it wernt for his wrestling he'd lose offten. I hate to say it but even Josh Kos is more fun to watch and he was originally a boring wrestler.hmm? Go figure.
GSP is sooo afraid of losing that he takes 0 risk and that to me makes a boring fight. Spider's a bjj black belt but he knocks everyone out. I still rate higher in the pound for pound rankings then GSP. Penn fights anyone, he even fought Machida and went the distance even though Penn was fat and gased.lol

GSP'z bjj is overratted thats why he couldnt finish-off Hardy. GSP has been relying on his wrestling skillz soo much that his bjj is lacking hence why he looked lost when applying holdz. He kept looking over at his corner for advice when alls he had to do was submit Hardy via armbar 101.

I really dont get why GSP thinks he needs to be soo well rounded and waste time taking every disipline art.
GSP should just pratice bjj for a year and chill on all the other arts cuz he's a natural wrester which he'll alwayz be. He dosent need to pratice wrestling so much and cuz hes so good at taking you down and controling you if he was to up his bjj game he'd have guys tap within the first round cuz he can take 90% of ALL UFC fighters down if he wants too so it makes sence to learn how to submit opponents?????

MUCH respect to Hardy.... I think he is the only guy who ever got up when GSP was on top of them...twice I beleive.
That in in its own right shows Hardy's strength/defense/will and mental tuffness. Props to Dan Hardy imo.

 

[Captain Fantastic]

Thankkk you. I've been sayin this for over 2 years now. 2 years ago when I mentioned it everybody flamed me for "hatin" on GSP.

See..
"05-22-2008 04:35 AM #30 John_E_Depth
Posts:636 It seems like GSP is playin it safe and knows he can controll every opponent on the ground therefore theres no need to risk kicking/punching and getting caught with a counter punch. We all know what can happen if he tries to exchange punch's with a puncher ala Serra vs GSP #1. The second time he fought Serra he barely threw any punch's in hopes not too get caught by Matt's heavy hands again. I wonder if GSP has changed for the worse and is now happy with grinding out a win"

IMO I think GSP is so use to useing his superior wrestling skillz to take down and lay on opponents until they tire out. He now forgot how to submitt guys. He had Hardy in crazy holds but couldnt finish him not cuz Hardy's superman or anything but GSP's bjj skillz miight be overated (yea, I said it). I think his striking and bjj skillz are not as goos as you would think since he got knocked the f-out by Serra, couldnt finish off Finch and now couldnt finish off Hardy after getting him in numerous holdz.

I've rolled with a brown belt in bjj and beleive me when they apply a armbar, triangle hold on you its Painfull, you tap instantly. In real life those holds are painfull "IF" executed properly and I dont care who you are you tap f-ing fasst.

Look at it this wayy. If Frank Mir got anyone in those holds that GSP had Hardy in they would be toast and minus one arm.
GSP is boring to watch and if it wernt for his wrestling he'd lose offten. I hate to say it but even Josh Kos is more fun to watch and he was originally a boring wrestler.hmm? Go figure.
GSP is sooo afraid of losing that he takes 0 risk and that to me makes a boring fight. Spider's a bjj black belt but he knocks everyone out. I still rate higher in the pound for pound rankings then GSP. Penn fights anyone, he even fought Machida and went the distance even though Penn was fat and gased.lol

GSP'z bjj is overratted thats why he couldnt finish-off Hardy. GSP has been relying on his wrestling skillz soo much that his bjj is lacking hence why he looked lost when applying holdz. He kept looking over at his corner for advice when alls he had to do was submit Hardy via armbar 101.

I really dont get why GSP thinks he needs to be soo well rounded and waste time taking every disipline art.
GSP should just pratice bjj for a year and chill on all the other arts cuz he's a natural wrester which he'll alwayz be. He dosent need to pratice wrestling so much and cuz hes so good at taking you down and controling you if he was to up his bjj game he'd have guys tap within the first round cuz he can take 90% of ALL UFC fighters down if he wants too so it makes sence to learn how to submit opponents?????

MUCH respect to Hardy.... I think he is the only guy who ever got up when GSP was on top of them...twice I beleive.
That in in its own right shows Hardy's strength/defense/will and mental tuffness. Props to Dan Hardy imo.

Thiago Alves got up a few times vs. GSP. Fitch did as well. Just pointing out facts.

While I think that you were onto something there for a bit - his BJJ is not top notch, he doesn't finish fights, he doesn't take many risks (other than the obvious one of stepping into a cage - I also think you lost the plot.

• When you wrote your initial post, it was just after Serra II. Yet GSP still brutally finished Serra. Beat him up badly on the ground. Of course, Matt Serra really is just a chunky 155-lber... But he had just dominated and submitted Matt Hughes on both the feet and ground and finished a game and tough Serra with vicious ground and pound. Hardly prescient or even a good comparative to his recent fights.
  I'm more concerned with the last 15 rounds vs. Fitch (although GSP did beat up JF standing, too), Alves and Hardy. GSP did enough to win, but also to cure insomnia.
• You don't "learn" championship-level, MMA-functional BJJ in a year. Not even an athletic freak like GSP. No gi, no punches to the face while trying to apply techniques as well as training partners who tap early to avoid any form of injury = not useful in MMA title fights. High-level BJJ is something that takes a lifetime of commitment. Which is why I think he has a better chance of working on ground and pound - from the guard (a la old-school Tito Ortiz), half-guard, side mount and mount. That will also have the secondary effect of opening up easier submission opportunities, rather than trying to force or "muscle" submissions.
• GSP still needs to work on takedowns, explosiveness, "hiding" his takedowns (changing angle of attack, etc.) The minute to stop learning or fall into patterns, you fall behind. To say otherwise shows a lack of understanding of championship-level MMA.
• You make it seem like he should somehow stand up with guys who are better strikers to show his "heart." That's nonsense. We're talking MMA, not a Tough Man competition. If your opponent has a weakness, exploit it. But then please do something afterwards... lay and pray = bore and snore.
• Josh Koscheck is a boring fighter with a personality - annoying as it is. He's no more fun to watch in the cage than Jon Fitch. Or GSP, as it were.
• I'm not sure what to make of the kimura. I think GSP could have really wrenched it and snapped Hardy's arm. And there is a small part of me would like to see GSP really fcuk someone up, just to see that he has the "killer instinct." But for the good of the sport's growth and because we're talking about the health of other human beings, I don't want to see another fighter hurt, particularly intentionally.

Speaking of which, Rousimar Palhares was suspended for 90 days for keeping the heel hook on for too long vs. Thomas Drwal. Not sure what to think of this. While he did appear to keep it on for an extra second after the referee jumped in, I know that when I'm being serious and rolling with someone, I'm in my own world and not paying attention to instructors and even my opponent talking or tapping lightly. It's a sort of "zone."


To the TERB MMA fan masses: thoughts on the Palhares suspension? And if so, then what about a suspension for Shane Carwin for repeatedly punching a prone and unconscious Frank Mir in the back of the head? Or better yet, suspensions for the two officials involved in these matches? Discuss amongst yourselves....