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Trump crushes Biden in latest ABC News poll

squeezer

Well-known member
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How much "anyone but Trump" vote is there is unknown.
After 4 years of him being President, it was very high, but with time people forget and are annoyed at the things of the moment.
Sure, seeing him on TV all the time could bring it back, but maybe not.

The other aspect to keep in mind is about your first sentence. As the forum here on TERB has shown repeatedly, lots of people cling to the idea that their vote is about "who they support" and not "who they prefer".
That drives a lot of people to stay home or otherwise vote against their interests because they don't understand how the system works.
The possibility is there for him to some how win but considering his track record since his 2016 win, it doesn't look very promising for the Trump camp.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Biden is the better man of the two but I would much prefer seeing a Newsome vs Haley run for the Whitehouse. I would still cheer for Gavin but wouldn't be overly worried for the US if Haley won.
That's a very plausible 2028 match up.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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How much "anyone but Trump" vote is there is unknown.
After 4 years of him being President, it was very high, but with time people forget and are annoyed at the things of the moment.
Sure, seeing him on TV all the time could bring it back, but maybe not.

The other aspect to keep in mind is about your first sentence. As the forum here on TERB has shown repeatedly, lots of people cling to the idea that their vote is about "who they support" and not "who they prefer".
That drives a lot of people to stay home or otherwise vote against their interests because they don't understand how the system works.
They may understand how the system works but just have different priorities than you, valcazar.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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They may understand how the system works but just have different priorities than you, valcazar.
Not the ones who think "my vote is about who I support".
That's just misunderstanding what voting is actually doing and clinging to a myth of what they "want it to do".

The people who understand that but vote Third party for other tactical or messaging reasons but understand the consequences just have different priorities.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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Not the ones who think "my vote is about who I support".
That's just misunderstanding what voting is actually doing and clinging to a myth of what they "want it to do".

The people who understand that but vote Third party for other tactical or messaging reasons but understand the consequences just have different priorities.
Yes, it sounds much better if you say they have 'different priorities' rather than they don't understand the system.

Sounds like the SC won't let the states take rump off the ballot.
Biden should announce that if coups are ok he'll starting planning one for next J6.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Most people actually paying attention figured the Supreme Court would overturn it - the question has always been on what grounds and with what new guidance.

Will they go with a narrow technical ruling that dodges the issue - knocking down this Colorado case but leaving the 14th amendment section 3 unresolved? (Something like the Colorado process wasn't proper due to some technical issue, or it can only apply to the general election and not primaries)
Or will they go with something that basically makes Section 3 non-viable in reality - saying it has to be a federal criminal conviction of insurrection, or the whole "this oath is different so it doesn't count" or "The President isn't an officer as specified in this passage".
Or will they try to put together some kind of clarification of the process going forward? - "Congress needs to pass a law specifying how the states or federal government can determine this" or "it must be state courts following a specific process" or "federal offices need to be decided in federal circuit courts" or whatever?

I'd like it to be the third, and hopefully in a process that makes sense.

(Ideally, I would like this to be a blow to federalism for elections and slowly start a move to real national voting for national office, but that's not likely.)

I kind of figure it will be the second, although I think there is a good chance it ends up with everyone agreeing to overturn Colorado but three or four different explanations why so nothing concrete is solved.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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Most people actually paying attention figured the Supreme Court would overturn it - the question has always been on what grounds and with what new guidance.

Will they go with a narrow technical ruling that dodges the issue - knocking down this Colorado case but leaving the 14th amendment section 3 unresolved? (Something like the Colorado process wasn't proper due to some technical issue, or it can only apply to the general election and not primaries)
Or will they go with something that basically makes Section 3 non-viable in reality - saying it has to be a federal criminal conviction of insurrection, or the whole "this oath is different so it doesn't count" or "The President isn't an officer as specified in this passage".
Or will they try to put together some kind of clarification of the process going forward? - "Congress needs to pass a law specifying how the states or federal government can determine this" or "it must be state courts following a specific process" or "federal offices need to be decided in federal circuit courts" or whatever?

I'd like it to be the third, and hopefully in a process that makes sense.

(Ideally, I would like this to be a blow to federalism for elections and slowly start a move to real national voting for national office, but that's not likely.)

I kind of figure it will be the second, although I think there is a good chance it ends up with everyone agreeing to overturn Colorado but three or four different explanations why so nothing concrete is solved.
If the use the third can't the dems come back and say he was impeached twice and if that's not the process what is?
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Yes, it sounds much better if you say they have 'different priorities' rather than they don't understand the system.
But that's a small minority.
The vast majority of people voting third party or refusing to vote don't understand the system.
The clue is usually when they say "I just can't support X person" - that is a clue they've got it wrong.

Sounds like the SC won't let the states take rump off the ballot.
Biden should announce that if coups are ok he'll starting planning one for next J6.
No, he shouldn't.
Also, that's not what the SC is deciding here. (I suspect they won't engage in any way with whether or not Trump did it.)
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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If the use the third can't the dems come back and say he was impeached twice and if that's not the process what is?
No.
The first impeachment wasn't about that at all, and the second one didn't result in a conviction, so how would that be helpful?
Also, it is quite possible to commit insurrection without being someone who was in an office subject to impeachment, so it would be a pretty wild narrowing of the meaning of Section 3.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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But that's a small minority.
The vast majority of people voting third party or refusing to vote don't understand the system.
The clue is usually when they say "I just can't support X person" - that is a clue they've got it wrong.
That's supposition on your part, you don't actually know what those people are thinking but assume you do with your personal opinions on morality and pragmatism.

No, he shouldn't.
Also, that's not what the SC is deciding here. (I suspect they won't engage in any way with whether or not Trump did it.)
I know, the SC is deciding whether states can eject a candidate for starting a coup, or any reason at all.
It would be worthwhile for the SC to understand the repercussions of this decision, I know the MAGA crowd here will talk about the rights of voters and the possibility that this can weaponize states to make candidates ineligible. But if it goes through it means candidates can never be removed for criminal acts, doesn't it?
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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That's supposition on your part, you don't actually know what those people are thinking but assume you do with your personal opinions on morality and pragmatism.
No.
If you think your vote is about "who you support" and your moral worth, you don't understand the mechanics of the system.
It's also not really your fault, because the way we talk about the system acts as if that is what it is doing.
It's what we want it to do for the most part, it just isn't designed to do it. (And to be fair, when it was designed that wasn't clear.)
This is one of the major reasons people have proposed and developed other systems - to try and get closer to a system where you can vote for "who you support" in a way that is practically useful.

I know, the SC is deciding whether states can eject a candidate for starting a coup, or any reason at all.
Not really.
They are deciding if the way Colorado did it was proper.
In the process of that they might end up deciding whether state can eject a candidate for starting a coup, or any reason at all.

It would be worthwhile for the SC to understand the repercussions of this decision,
They do.
They just disagree on what repercussions would be good or bad things.

I know the MAGA crowd here will talk about the rights of voters and the possibility that this can weaponize states to make candidates ineligible. But if it goes through it means candidates can never be removed for criminal acts, doesn't it?
Not at all.
It depends entirely on why they choose to overturn it and what rules or guidance they put in place.
 
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