Nice Read
Let’s break down and analyze the trade.
Phaneuf’s name has surfaced on a number of occasions since Brendan Shanahan became president of the Leafs, Apr. 11. Given the decision to retain coach Randy Carlyle and the extreme unlikelihood that Phil Kessel will be traded, Phaneuf provides the Blue and White its lone opportunity to alter a failed nucleus. Leafs would accomplish this by trading Phaneuf to Florida, where he would suit up alongside veteran Brian Campbell; young stalwart Erik Gudbranson and fellow defensemen/prospects Dmitry Kulikov, Colby Robak and Alex Petrovic. In a best-case scenario, the Panthers would have a good mix of experience, size and mobility on the blue line. Phaneuf has limited movement restriction in the contract he signed with Maple Leafs in late-December, though he might have enough authority to require approval for a trade to Florida. My NHL contacts don’t believe that would be much of an issue. They feel Phaneuf would likely welcome a change of scenery and a leadership role in a far-less-maniacal hockey market.
Sadly for the Maple Leafs, Kadri and Carlyle mix like gasoline and fire. It’s a player/coach relationship with very limited upside. Given that only Buffalo scored fewer goals than Florida this season, Kadri would help boost a flagging offense. And, the Panthers would still get a good prospect with the No. 8 selection in the draft. Though there is risk in trading a young, gifted player, the Maple Leafs do have enough firepower to relinquish Kadri, who might blossom under new direction. And while Campbell carries a $7.15-million cap hit for the next two seasons, Florida is swimming in space ($30,234,625 according to Capgeek.com). Tallon could easily absorb Phaneuf’s $7 million hit, thus helping his team to reach the projected cap floor of $52 million.
The Leafs have a more complicated cap situation with a number of players to contend with. Dave Bolland, Jay McClement, Nikolai Kulemin, Mason Raymond Troy Bodie, Cody Franson, Jake Gardiner, Paul Ranger and James Reimer were all deployed by the club this past season and are all either restricted or unrestricted free agents. No. 1 goalie Jonathan Bernier has one year left on his paltry $2.9-million contract and if he continues to progress as a legitimate starter, he’ll command a hefty raise. The rumored deal with Florida would slash nearly $2.9 million from the Leafs’ cap figure – that being the difference between Phaneuf and Jovanovski. Turning 38 at the end of this month, Jovanovski has one year left on his $4.125-million contract and is not certain about coming back for an 18th NHL season. He appeared in 37 games for the Panthers after undergoing nearly a complete hip replacement and would like to play again – should his body cooperate. If that were to happen, the first overall draft pick in 1994 would lend size, savvy and experience to the young, developing Leafs on the blue-line. He would assume a portion of Phaneuf’s considerable ice time while Rielly ascends into the role. If Jovanovski retires, Leafs are off the hook for his salary and would still have the first selection in this year’s draft.
To summarize, this is a deal that could help both teams. In Phaneuf, Florida would add another horse on defense and a player with a refreshed outlook. Kadri would entertain fans in Sunrise and generate much-needed offense for the Panthers. By trading Phaneuf, Leafs would form a new identity and partially dissolve the blundering Carlyle-Phaneuf-Kessel triumvirate. Toronto would add yet another terrific prospect on the blue-line. As always, a trade rumor has to be considered for what it is – pure speculation. But, this one makes a bit of sense.