Thousands of scientists urge end to 'devastating' lockdowns

[shack]

Fair enough but I'm only in contact with the person I am dining with and the server. The server wears a mask and I put my mask on when he or she comes to the booth. (I prefer to sit in a booth as I can scooch in and be further from the server). Table and booth seating is adequately spaced out in my experience. I can only speak from my personal experience. I don't go to busy bars or clubs. And I am only there for a short time. People spend longer periods at the mall.

And I am not constantly exposing myself over and over like I would be if I kept having unprotected sex with an HIV- infected person. But I could see that analogy working if a group of regulars keep going to the same bar every night where one of them (or maybe the bartender) is infected.

Another factor is that bars have to serve food and very, very many restaurants serve alcohol and may also have a bar for patrons. The lines are blurred. As well, as to your description of what you do at a restaurant, what if there is a party of 6 or 8 or 10? Not so easy to stay separated in that scenario.

I think it would be hard for the gov't to make guidelines that would be equally fair to fit all the different scenarios and situations. As such it seems much easier to treat them all equally, keeping in mind that they are erring on the side of safety AND these measures are temporary, maybe a few weeks to a month at a time.

 

[benstt]

Concluding that grocery, retail & service are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

Concluding that gyms and sports are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

Concluding that congregate settings are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

Agreed! The report made no such conclusions, but it looks like CTV did.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Concluding that bars and restaurants are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

And what percentage of total cases are untraceable??

 

[basketcase]

Not sure why you're getting so defensive, all I did was post government data that shows bars and restaurants only represent a small part of the outbreak.

Are you saying the data is wrong??

Your use of the data is clearly wrong. I'm not sure if its intentional or if you really don't understand much.

To give you the benefit of the doubt, the data you gave documents cases where they have confirmed the source of transmission. By my quick count, it's a little over 600 cases. Toronto on it's own has had some 29,000 cases and the province almost 80,000.

That means the data accounts for around 1% of covid cases.

 

[basketcase]

Concluding that grocery, retail & service are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

Concluding that gyms and sports are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

Concluding that congregate settings are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

Absolutely. To me that doesn't mean we shouldn't be trying to act. It would be a huge step to close down grocery stores, schools, or LTC homes so limiting the 4th biggest category makes sense (if the people who study this stuff feel it is reasonable representative).

 

[shack]

Your use of the data is clearly wrong. I'm not sure if its intentional or if you really don't understand much.

To give you the benefit of the doubt, the data you gave documents cases where they have confirmed the source of transmission. By my quick count, it's a little over 600 cases. Toronto on it's own has had some 29,000 cases and the province almost 80,000.

That means the data accounts for around 1% of covid cases.

For the sake of proper perspective, it is a larger sample size than referencing his buddy in Sweden.

 

[basketcase]

I don't like to argue but I completely disagree that proximity is necessarily closer in bars. Not if the bar is following the guidelines. ...

Even sitting across from each other in a restaurant means you are directing your mask-less breath right at someone who's face is about 4 ft away and they're doing the same. Unless you're only dining with people in your household...

And yes, there is no excuse for clubs.

 

[basketcase]

Also, as Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown said yesterday morning, closing bars and restaurants (where distancing and hygiene regulations were being strictly followed) has only moved people to eat and drink with friends in private residences and offices. So all you are doing is moving people from a place with strict rules and regulations to places that have none. Thus, possibly making the situation worse. Ford, and I believe John Tory as well, have said the same thing. The health inspectors and police can't enter private residences.

That's what I love against Mayor Brown; his statement is consistent with his views on safe injection sites when he was party leader.

The idea of allowing potentially harmful behaviour in public because it will go on anyway is hotly debated. Safe injection isn't a good comparison though as the point of them is to provide medical treatment and monitoring when needed.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Your use of the data is clearly wrong. I'm not sure if its intentional or if you really don't understand much.

To give you the benefit of the doubt, the data you gave documents cases where they have confirmed the source of transmission. By my quick count, it's a little over 600 cases. Toronto on it's own has had some 29,000 cases and the province almost 80,000.

That means the data accounts for around 1% of covid cases.

Thats the only study we have for now.
And apparently its a large enough sample size for the Ottawa mayor to consider opening up the Bar/Restaurant industry to some extent. Doug Ford has said the same, he might ease restrictions province-wide.

Read this: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-covid-19-reopening-october-restuarants-1.5783669
And this: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-covid-19-data-old-news-good-news-1.5782884

Just be honest basketcase, you said many times in previous threads that you thought Bar/Restaurants were to blame for most for Covid transmissions, and it appears you were completely wrong.

I dont expect you to admit this though

 

[shack]

Just be honest basketcase, you said many times in previous threads that you thought Bar/Restaurants were to blame for most for Covid transmissions,

Do you have one quote out of the "many"?

 

[MissCroft]

That's what I love against Mayor Brown............

The idea of allowing potentially harmful behaviour in public because it will go on anyway is hotly debated.

I know very little about him as I'm not from Brampton.

However, his argument the other morning was not simply that the behaviour will go on anyway; it was that it will now happen in private, unmonitored environments (private residences and offices) rather than monitored environments ( bars and restaurants with hygiene and distancing protocols). This could potentially make things worse. I recall Ford saying that at one point too. The argument is mainly that they could possibly (no one knows for sure) be causing the opposite outcome of what they are trying to achieve.

It also makes contact tracing more difficult.

 

[shack]

I know very little about him as I'm not from Brampton.

However, his argument the other morning was not simply that the behaviour will go on anyway; it was that it will now happen in private, unmonitored environments (private residences and offices) rather than monitored environments ( bars and restaurants with hygiene and distancing protocols). This could potentially make things worse. I recall Ford saying that at one point too. The argument is mainly that they could possibly (no one knows for sure) be causing the opposite outcome of what they are trying to achieve.

It also makes contact tracing more difficult.

I would suspect that the number of people congregated indoors at home will be less than the number of people congregated in a restaurant. I also suspect that the monitoring at a restaurant is hardly a disciplined endeavour. Lots of stuff goes on that is not supposed to and it is with many people that you are not familiar with. Monitoring at home with your family would be quite easy.

As well, if you are only congregating at home with people you know, contact tracing would be extremely easy. Unless you are allowing total strangers in your home, you know exactly who you have been in contact with and you have their real name and their real contact info which, as many people have stated, is not the case when people are out. They give false info.

Agian, not that we know the exact time frame, but these are temporary measures. Things will slowly get back to normal, if not a straight line trajectory for the better. There will be some peaks and valleys.

 

[MissCroft]

I would suspect that the number of people congregated indoors at home will be less than the number of people congregated in a restaurant. I also suspect that the monitoring at a restaurant is hardly a disciplined endeavour.

It depends on the restaurant. I'm very selective in that I will only go to a place where I can see that they are following the guidelines. If a restaurant isn't following the guidelines, they should either be reported or people should stop going to those places to send a message. If they lose business, hopefully they will change their practices.

As for congregating indoors, I hope you're right but with Christmas (party) season coming soon, it's hard to say.

 

[basketcase]

...

Just be honest basketcase, you said many times in previous threads that you thought Bar/Restaurants were to blame for most for Covid transmissions, and it appears you were completely wrong.

I dont expect you to admit this though

Are you making things up? Care to show me a post where I said that?

Of course not. Making up your own reality is a sure sign of someone losing an argument.


What the study actually shows is we don't do contact tracing well enough and our testing protocols aren't thorough enough to conclusively determine the source of 99% of infection.

 

[basketcase]

I know very little about him as I'm not from Brampton.

However, his argument the other morning was not simply that the behaviour will go on anyway; it was that it will now happen in private, unmonitored environments (private residences and offices) rather than monitored environments ( bars and restaurants with hygiene and distancing protocols). This could potentially make things worse. I recall Ford saying that at one point too. The argument is mainly that they could possibly (no one knows for sure) be causing the opposite outcome of what they are trying to achieve.

It also makes contact tracing more difficult.

I would think it makes contact tracing easier as generally people don't allow total strangers into their house (not counting those idiots running pop-up clubs out of their place).

My view on this is the same as my view on safe injection sites. We need to address the underlying causes of the issues which in this case is people not believing or not caring that an infectious disease is going around. Although many/most restaurants are pretty decent on covid, I have little doubt that popular bars are far more lax. I spent a while supplementing my income by working in bars and clubs and although they were liable for violations to their liquor licence, the drive to be a hot spot and make a quick buck often outweighs the risk. The same thing has been happening with covid restrictions which has seen numerous establishments covertly opening.

And the issue is the party people who don't care. They won't follow covid restrictions at bars and they won't follow them at private parties.

A family going out to a restaurant is essentially zero risk. Friends going to a restaurant is higher risk. People going to bars where they can and do move around is higher still. The question is where to draw the line and as governments licence establishments, they have a vested interest in keeping them safe.

I have a suspicion that schools are playing a major role as a congregate indoor setting. Studies show that from about the age of 10, youth spread the virus as easily as adults but are less likely to show symptoms. Unlikely we will ever know for sure unless some kind of mass testing study occurs. And of course much of the public doesn't want schools closed again.

 

[basketcase]

...

As for congregating indoors, I hope you're right but with Christmas (party) season coming soon, it's hard to say.

Some interpretations of the data correlates a spike to Thanksgiving gatherings so unless we hit a significant drop soon, I can't see anyone advising extended family gatherings.

 

[MissCroft]

Some interpretations of the data correlates a spike to Thanksgiving gatherings so unless we hit a significant drop soon, I can't see anyone advising extended family gatherings.

Of course no one is advising extended family gatherings but a person would have to be pretty naive to think that they won't occur. I hope that people listen.