Thousands of scientists urge end to 'devastating' lockdowns

[mandrill]

You know that story very well

I don't, Phillip. And neither do you.

Now I think it's time you joined a couple of your buddies on my "ignore" list. It's been a good time, but all things have to come to an end.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

I don't, Phillip. And neither do you.

Now I think it's time you joined a couple of your buddies on my "ignore" list. It's been a good time, but all things have to come to an end.

*toodles*

 

[basketcase]

But how do they (or anyone for that matter) know that they contracted Covid at the restaurant? ...

They don't, at least not 100%. That said, when a number of people who were all at the same place at the same time get infected, it is a reasonable assumption that the infection spread there. It's possible that five people got infected at five different places and just happened to be at the same restaurant on the same day but....

The could do genetic tracing that follows the virus through mutations but that would be very costly, especially when contact tracing provides a likely source.

 

[MissCroft]

True. But 5 people could also catch it at Wal-Mart but no one would know or make the connection because there is no contact tracing. Also, so many people are asymptomatic or just say/think they have a cold.

With so many asymptomatic or mild cases and relatively little testing still, we don't even know where the heck Covid is anymore. It could be bloody everywhere.

I do want to state for the record, that I do not think that Covid is a hoax. I know I could get it and I could get very sick. You never know. But I'm not going to hide under my covers from the bogeyman forever.

 

[squeezer]

True. But 5 people could also catch it at Wal-Mart but no one would know or make the connection because there is no contact tracing. Also, so many people are asymptomatic or just say they have a cold.

With so many asymptomatic or mild cases and relatively little testing still, we don't even know where the heck Covid is now. It could be bloody everywhere.

At Walmart all must wear masks, employees and customers with no reason for removing the masks as people do in restaurants since it's impossible to eat and drink in a restaurant.

 

[MissCroft]

At Walmart all must wear masks, employees and customers with no reason for removing the masks as people do in restaurants since it's impossible to eat and drink in a restaurant.

But they all don't though. And wearing a mask pulled down under your nose doesn't count. I see that all the time at the grocery store as well. IMO, that's the same as not wearing a mask at all.

At least at a restaurant you are quite far from other people. The seating is very spaced out and you must put your mask on as soon as you rise from the table. I honestly feel safer at a restaurant than at No Frills or Metro.

 

[lenny2]

At Walmart all must wear masks, employees and customers with no reason for removing the masks as people do in restaurants since it's impossible to eat and drink in a restaurant.

In a downtown Vancouver IGA grocery store the other day i saw a sign that said all who enter the store must wear a mask since Sept.21. I didn't notice any, customers or staff, without one on. Downtown restaurants appeared empty around supper time.

 

[basketcase]

True. But 5 people could also catch it at Wal-Mart but no one would know or make the connection because there is no contact tracing....

I agree. That doesn't change what's happening in bars and restaurants.

Also worth mentioning that contact time and proximity are much higher in bars than walmart.

 

[lenny2]

"Experts: COVID-19 herd immunity strategy could lead to 'overwhelming death and devastation' Abby Haglage

Wed, October 14, 2020, 11:34 AM PDTSenior Trump administration officials have reportedly endorsed a reopening strategy that hinges on exposing young, healthy people to COVID-19 in order to protect those at highest risk, the New York Times writes. The plan is aimed at achieving “herd immunity,” defined by the Mayo Clinic as when a “large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely.”

Herd immunity is typically only reached through vaccination, and experts say attempting to attain it without a vaccine — in the midst of a pandemic where as many as 95 percent of Americans aren’t immune — could be disastrous. “Two to 6 million deaths is a perfectly reasonable back-of-the-envelope calculation,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University, tells Yahoo Life.

When asked about the potential loss of life that could occur from a herd immunity strategy, a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services directed Yahoo Life to a series of tweets from its secretary, Alex Azar. In them, Azar mentions a meeting with Trump’s newest coronavirus adviser, Dr. Scott Atlas, as well as some of the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, a petition created by a subset of scientists who believe herd immunity is the best solution.

But this group of scientists — who did not reply to Yahoo Life’s request for comment — are decidedly in the minority. Schaffner, a 50-year-plus veteran of epidemiology, says taking their approach to herd immunity would be playing with fire. “If we leave it to the virus itself, we have to recognize that in many parts of the United States at present, less than 5 percent of people have been infected,” he says. “That means the virus would have to infect a vastly larger number of people to actually achieve herd immunity — at the price of huge amounts of social disruption, sickness, hospitalizations and, obviously, deaths.”

This level of illness, he says, could lead to a catastrophic loss of life. “The price would be enormous,” says Schaffner. “You would be rivaling the 1918 colossal influenza pandemic.” An estimated 50 million people worldwide died from that pandemic, including close to 700,000 people in the U.S. alone. Experts believe that roughly 25 percent of the U.S. population was infected with the virus at the time, leading to a 12-year drop in the average life expectancy rate.

Dr. Dara Kass, Yahoo Life’s medical contributor, believes there are many reasons why herd immunity could be a deadly disaster — not least of them that young, healthy people are not immune from severe illness. “There is a risk of every person getting infected passing away,” Kass says. “It may be smaller for young people than older people, but this is not a riskless infection.”

She notes that other countries, such as New Zealand, have been able to reopen by taking more serious precautions to prevent COVID-19, like enacting rigorous contact tracing programs. Meanwhile, the approach of Sweden, which set out to achieve herd immunity, has been labeled a “disaster” and a “failure,” resulting in one of the highest per capita death rates in the world.

Kass suggests that this example is even more reason to avoid it. “There is no objective evidence that this would work. None,” she says. “What these people are advocating for is a hypothetical that could result in overwhelming death and devastation, with no backing from any public health.” To employ this strategy, she says, would not only put young people at risk but force older and more vulnerable people to have to endure even more isolation — all seemingly in an effort to reopen the country more quickly. “They’re basing this on a hypothetical that makes their lives easier,” says Kass. “It’s lazy.”

Schaffner agrees that those who buy into it are missing the point. “There are always people — and I think more this time, because of the political overtones — who are dubious about the epidemic, who don’t really understand how it’s spread, and who, if they are not personally affected, don’t care very much,” he says. “We have a core of conspiracy theorists in the United States that seem to be with us. So it’s not really surprising. What is surprising is that there are people supporting it who seem to have some scientific background. I find it stunning.”

Although some may continue to argue that herd immunity has been achieved with other infections, such as measles, Schaffner says proponents of that theory are misguided. “They forget the price. Before we had a measles vaccine, 500 children died each year in the United States of measles and its complications,” he says. “That’s the price of herd immunity. Nature is fierce. It’s not benign.”

Experts: COVID-19 herd immunity strategy could lead to 'overwhelming death and devastation'

White House officials have reportedly endorsed a reopening strategy aimed at reaching herd immunity by infecting young people. Experts tell Yahoo Life the result could "rival the 1918 flu pandemic."

www.yahoo.com

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

I agree. That doesn't change what's happening in bars and restaurants.

Also worth mentioning that contact time and proximity are much higher in bars than walmart

Bars, restaurants account for 2 per cent of COVID-19 outbreaks in Ottawa, 14 per cent in Toronto

Bars, restaurants account for 2 per cent of COVID-19 outbreaks in Ottawa, 14 per cent in Toronto

Bars, restaurants and nightclubs have accounted for two per cent of all COVID-19 outbreaks in Ottawa since the start of August

ottawa.ctvnews.ca

 

[benstt]

Bars, restaurants account for 2 per cent of COVID-19 outbreaks in Ottawa, 14 per cent in Toronto

Note that these are numbers where they can trace the source. There are significant numbers of cases where they cannot trace the origins. Toronto has been seeing between roughly 30% and 60% as untraceable, and they may be concerned how much share of these unknowns come from bars and restaurants.

https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/COVID-19-Updated-Modelling-Oct.-29-2020.pdf

 

[basketcase]

Note that these are numbers where they can trace the source. There are significant numbers of cases where they cannot trace the origins. Toronto has been seeing between roughly 30% and 60% as untraceable, and they may be concerned how much share of these unknowns come from bars and restaurants.

https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/COVID-19-Updated-Modelling-Oct.-29-2020.pdf

Are you saying that Phil's is misleading us with a post that accounts for only a few hundred of Ontario's 70+ thousand of Ontario's cases?


Maybe he wants us to open up restaurants but close down schools, grocery stores, and industry as they're the ones with the higher percentage of known sources.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Are you saying that Phil's is misleading us with a post that accounts for only a few hundred of Ontario's 70+ thousand of Ontario's cases?

Maybe he wants us to open up restaurants but close down schools, grocery stores, and industry as they're the ones with the higher percentage of known sources

Not sure why you're getting so defensive, all I did was post government data that shows bars and restaurants only represent a small part of the outbreak.

Are you saying the data is wrong??

 

[benstt]

Not sure why you're getting so defensive, all I did was post government data that shows bars and restaurants only represent a small part of the outbreak.

Are you saying the data is wrong??

Concluding that bars and restaurants are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

 

[MissCroft]

Concluding that bars and restaurants are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

Concluding that grocery, retail & service are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

Concluding that gyms and sports are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

Concluding that congregate settings are only a small part of the outbreak ignores the large untraced cases.

 

[MissCroft]

Also, restaurants that I went to insist that you write down your name and phone number (sometimes home address).

You don't give your name and phone number at the grocery store, on the ttc, the mall, etc.

And what about seeing a lady at her incall.....?

 

[MissCroft]

Also worth mentioning that contact time and proximity are much higher in bars than walmart.

I don't like to argue but I completely disagree that proximity is necessarily closer in bars. Not if the bar is following the guidelines. This was a problem....certain bars and clubs were not and John Tory is promising that it will be more strictly enforced this time. The problems is that ALL bars and restaurants were punished because of a few bad apples who weren't following the rules.

I have seen distancing at restaurants. I have NOT seen adequate distancing at WalMart or Costco.

As for contact time, I don't see how that has a lot to do with it. Especially when they are saying it may stay in the air for longer than they originally thought.

I don't think Covid sits back and relaxes with a cigarette and waits a while to infect someone.

And what about people who work in busy places like Walmart?

 

[shack]

As for contact time, I don't see how that has a lot to do with it. Especially when they are saying it may stay in the air for longer than they originally thought.

I don't think Covid sits back and relaxes with a cigarette and waits a while to infect someone.

The virus is not 100% immediately effective each time. The longer that one is in proximity increases the chance of the virus being successfully transmitted.

As a comparison, if one hasunprotected sex with a person with an STD, they may not necessarily get infected the very first time. However, the more often that happens, the chances of transmission increases. The more exposure, the more likely there will be a transmission. And more exposure would include proximity, frequency and duration.

 

[MissCroft]

The virus is not 100% immediately effective each time. The longer that one is in proximity increases the chance of the virus being successfully transmitted.

As a comparison, if one hasunprotected sex with a person with an STD, they may not necessarily get infected the very first time. However, the more often that happens, the chances of transmission increases. The more exposure, the more likely there will be a transmission. And more exposure would include proximity, frequency and duration.

Fair enough but I'm only in contact with the person I am dining with and the server. The server wears a mask and I put my mask on when he or she comes to the booth. (I prefer to sit in a booth as I can scooch in and be further from the server). Table and booth seating is adequately spaced out in my experience. I can only speak from my personal experience. I don't go to busy bars or clubs. And I am only there for a short time. People spend longer periods at the mall.

And I am not constantly exposing myself over and over like I would be if I kept having unprotected sex with an HIV- infected person. But I could see that analogy working if a group of regulars keep going to the same bar every night where one of them (or maybe the bartender) is infected.

 

[MissCroft]

Also, as Brampton Mayor Patrick Brown said yesterday morning, closing bars and restaurants (where distancing and hygiene regulations were being strictly followed) has only moved people to eat and drink with friends in private residences and offices. So all you are doing is moving people from a place with strict rules and regulations to places that have none. Thus, possibly making the situation worse. Ford, and I believe John Tory as well, have said the same thing. The health inspectors and police can't enter private residences.