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The world has barely 10 years to get climate change under control U.N. scientists say

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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Wrong. The IPCC's 2015 report said the temperature predictions in the 2007 report were wrong (you can try reading the link for yourself).
Prove it with quotes from the report.
We both know you can't.
Its just more bullshit you read on a denier site, copied here yet didn't actually read the report to confirm what it says.

Go on, prove it or admit you've been caught out yet again.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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I thought weather =/= climate. So how can you take one fall season and one warm summer as proof of climate change??
Also hurricanes have decreased over the last decade or two.

Just FYI my original question was have our winters gotten warmer over the last 30 to 50 years (as a whole)??
You can use them as examples of extreme weather events, not as trends.

And by the way, this conversation is about global climate change, why do you keep trying to change it to only local weather?
 

Phil C. McNasty

Go Jays Go
Dec 27, 2010
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You can use them as examples of extreme weather events, not as trends
And yet thats exactly what he was inferring, using that example as a global warming trend

And by the way, this conversation is about global climate change, why do you keep trying to change it to only local weather?
Fine, lets talk about global warming/cooling cycles that earth goes through.
Do you now finally admit they exist??
 

Phil C. McNasty

Go Jays Go
Dec 27, 2010
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Very enterprising of you, inventing your own 'not equal to' sign, but I'll bet your keyboard already has one. Try an 'alt-=' key combo, or 'option-=' on a Mac
How about you stop trying to change the subject and answer my questions for once
 

toguy5252

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2009
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The IPCC says the prediction was wrong: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/jan/20/ipcc-himalayan-glaciers-mistake

Furthermore, the IPCC also admitted it was totally baseless. There was never any evidence supporting the fairy-tale prediction.

So, what exactly occurred during the IPCC peer review process that the zealots insist is so rigorous?
You have to read the entire article. The timing was wrong. The conclsion was not. The train ius coming.

The IPCC says the broader conclusion of the report is unaffected: that glaciers have melted significantly, that this will accelerate and affect the supply of water from major mountain ranges "where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives"./QUOTE]
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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Prove it with quotes from the report.
We both know you can't.
Its just more bullshit you read on a denier site, copied here yet didn't actually read the report to confirm what it says.

Go on, prove it or admit you've been caught out yet again.
For crying out loud.

There are, however, differences between simulated and observed trends over periods as short as 10 to 15 years (e.g., 1998 to 2012). {9.4, Box 9.2}

The observed reduction in surface warming trend over the period 1998 to 2012 as compared to the period 1951 to 2012, is due in roughly equal measure to a reduced trend in radiative forcing and a cooling contribution from natural internal variability, which includes a possible redistribution of heat within the ocean (medium confidence).
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

There is also this quote from Page 37 of the technical summary of the report:

The rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade) is smaller than the trend since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12[0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade).
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf

It's not good enough to provide Frankfooter with the primary source. The so-called expert on the "science" needs me to read it to him.

Proving once again that Frankfooter clearly never completed high school.
 

toguy5252

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2009
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That's an understatement. The entire prediction was completely baseless, as the IPCC acknowledged.
They did not acknowledge that. in fact they said that the boarder conclusion is unaffected. read the report.

The train is coming.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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They did not acknowledge that.
First sentence of the story: "The UN's climate science body has admitted that a claim made in its 2007 report - that Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 - was unfounded."

The prediction came from claims made in a string of magazine articles, not any scientific evidence.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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For crying out loud.

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

There is also this quote from Page 37 of the technical summary of the report:

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf

It's not good enough to provide Frankfooter with the primary source. The so-called expert on the "science" needs me to read it to him.

Proving once again that Frankfooter clearly never completed high school.
FAIL

You claimed they said this:
The IPCC's 2015 report said the temperature predictions in the 2007 report were wrong (you can try reading the link for yourself).
Nowhere in that report do they say they were wrong, only that volcanic action added a small drop in global temp.
The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily due to volcanic eruptions
And as you also know, the supposed 'pause' from 1998 never happened and those original IPCC projections were actually quite good.
https://slate.com/technology/2016/03/the-global-warming-pause-never-happened.html

Typical moviefan bullshit claim, folks.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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First sentence of the story: "The UN's climate science body has admitted that a claim made in its 2007 report - that Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 - was unfounded."

The prediction came from claims made in a string of magazine articles, not any scientific evidence.
Wow.

One error made in a 1998 interview that came out in the 2007 report.
And that's the only error you and your team of science deniers can find?

Amazingly excellent work.
Only one minor error from an 11 year old report!
 

toguy5252

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2009
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First sentence of the story: "The UN's climate science body has admitted that a claim made in its 2007 report - that Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035 - was unfounded."

The prediction came from claims made in a string of magazine articles, not any scientific evidence.
LOL. Read the report. You have made my point. The sentence you have produced says clearly "... by 2035". It goes on the say that the "broader conclusion is unaffected", the broader conclusion being that the glacier is melting.

The train is coming. It may just be late relative to the prediction in the report.
 

bver_hunter

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2005
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I thought weather =/= climate. So how can you take one fall season and one warm summer as proof of climate change??
Also hurricanes have decreased over the last decade or two.

Just FYI my original question was have our winters gotten warmer over the last 30 to 50 years (as a whole)??
Who has taken just one fall and one summer season season to explain the Global warming / climate change?? Read both the links that I posted and then we can discuss further.

This precise study has also displayed the effect of climate change on the Hurricanes. All the proof is in the pudding and yet all you do is mention stuff that you read from some random alt right wing website:

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

To answer your question, yes the waters to me seem warmer than some of the winters in the past 20-30 years.

So are you saying that the disappearance of the ice / snow in the Arctic is false?
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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Nowhere in that report do they say they were wrong....
One last time: "There are, however, differences between simulated and observed trends...."

That means they were wrong.

Don't be fooled by the obscure language -- the wording is deliberately obscure, at the directions of "governments" that didn't want the biggest news in the report to be easily quoted.

Writer Fred Pearce (a believer in man-made global warming) described in an article linked below how politicians deliberately altered the language to make it obtuse.

Another contentious topic was how the report should deal with the recent warming hiatus. The draft acknowledged the scientists’ concerns and noted that climate models “do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10-15 years.” This was reportedly met with opposition from some delegates who wanted to remove all references to a slowdown. Some argued that the hiatus had not lasted long enough to be considered a temperature trend. Perhaps they also felt it would be seized on by climate-change deniers.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/has_the_un_climate_panel_now_outlived_its_usefulness
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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Only one minor error from an 11 year old report!
Wrong again. The temperature predictions in the report were wrong, as was -- according to you -- the prediction that it is now "too late" to do anything.

Unless, of course, you do believe it's "too late" and that we should do nothing at this point. :thumb:
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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The train is coming. It may just be late relative to the prediction in the report.
Or not.

I don't know what will happen hundreds or thousands of years from now. Neither do you. Neither does the IPCC.

It's pointless to debate a future none of us will ever see.

Let's stick with measurable time frames. We know the prediction about the Himalayan glaciers disappearing by 2035 was wrong. Debating what may or may not happen in Captain Kirk's century is pointless.
 

toguy5252

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2009
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Or not.

I don't know what will happen hundreds or thousands of years from now. Neither do you. Neither does the IPCC.

It's pointless to debate a future none of us will ever see.

Let's stick with measurable time frames. We know the prediction about the Himalayan glaciers disappearing by 2035 was wrong. Debating what may or may not happen in Captain Kirk's century is pointless.
You are wrong. Scientists can predict what will happen whether or not they can predict when it will happen. And it is not thousands of years. I do not know that it is hundreds of years. You may not care but I care about the planet that my grandchildren and great grandchildren etc will inherit.

You seem to think that unless the world comes to an end it is pointless to attempt rto change things. All it will take is crop yields to go down a little or water levels to rise a little or hurricanes to be more often and more severe and you will see how the world will change and the billions it will cost. I have no idea how old you are but i am on my 60's and I expect that unless we start doing somersetting now or soon I will see those effects in my lifetime.
 

Phil C. McNasty

Go Jays Go
Dec 27, 2010
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Who has taken just one fall and one summer season season to explain the Global warming / climate change??
You have. If it wasnt relevant to global warming then why did you mention it??
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
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You are wrong. Scientists can predict what will happen whether or not they can predict when it will happen. And it is not thousands of years. I do not know that it is hundreds of years.
Science is about making precise predictions that can be compared with real-world observations.

You fully admit there is no time frame in this speculation about what may happen to glaciers in the future. Thus, whether you believe the predictions or not, that speculation is not science.

(By the way, your level of compassion has nothing to do with science. Whether you care a great deal about the future of the planet -- or not at all -- has no bearing on the accuracy of your predictions.)
 

toguy5252

Well-known member
Jun 22, 2009
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Science is about making precise predictions that can be compared with real-world observations.

You fully admit there is no time frame in this speculation about what may happen to glaciers in the future. Thus, whether you believe the predictions or not, that speculation is not science.

(By the way, your level of compassion has nothing to do with science. Whether you care a great deal about the future of the planet -- or not at all -- has no bearing on the accuracy of your predictions.)
I agree to a point. Scientists have predicted the consequences of global warming. The fact that they are unable to predict with precision when the end will come does not change the validity of the predictions. The consequences are already being experienced. The timing of catastrophic consequences are apparently harder to predict. Even if they are off by 50 years (and I personally have no idea) in the scheme of things and the history of the planet that is an insignificant variation.

And yes my level of compassion is purely personal and has no bearing on the predictions of others but it is influenced by the predictions of others.
 
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