The 2024 US Presidential election
- Thread starter Phil C. McNasty
- Start date
This is hilarious and a must-watch. The cameraman at a Trump rally goes rogue and fact checks Lying Trump in real time. It's hilarious!!!
GO TO 5:20 to go straight to the fact-checking
Watch Trump REACT to being FACT CHECKED TO HIS FACE
GO TO 5:20 to go straight to the fact-checking
Watch Trump REACT to being FACT CHECKED TO HIS FACE
Although I don't agree with much of what Ben Shapiro has to say he has become less annoying as he's maturing.
Ben Shapiro | Club Random with Bill Maher
Ben Shapiro | Club Random with Bill Maher
Today was the last day for early voting and its gotten even worse for Kamaltoe.
Dems usually lead EV by a lot, and then Republicans catch up on voting day.
Right now its almost even at 37.9% to 36.1%
Dems usually lead EV by a lot, and then Republicans catch up on voting day.
Right now its almost even at 37.9% to 36.1%
'We have an open wound': Expert laughs off possible out for Trump in criminal cases
Professor who has correctly predicted 9 of last 10 elections stands by Harris pick
Even Oregon and Colorado might be coming into play.
I dont think Trump will win OR, but he might win CO
I dont think Trump will win OR, but he might win CO
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US presidential election updates: Poll shows Harris ahead in early voting as Trump jokes about reporters being shot
www.theguardian.com
4 November briefing: Harris holds marginal lead as Trump jokes about reporters being shot
Kamala Harris holds marginal leads over Donald Trump in swing state polls with less than 48 hours before polls close in the 5 November election
www.theguardian.com
Because it's essentially been easy to predict Iowa's Presidential and Senate votes.
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”eu.desmoinesregister.com
Ann Selzer has called every presidential and senate race correctly in Iowa since 2008.
Now MAGA is crying foul because her last pre-election poll shows Harris up by 3.
We will see if Seltzer's right, but it's unusual for one pollster to pick up things that others do not. If she's wrong, it could be one of two things in my opinion. Seltzer's poll picked up a lot of the "shy" Trump voters as they say. Or she deliberately put her thumb on the scale. We'll never know the latter as she would likely claim to be thrown off by the "shy" Trump voters.
That Selzer poll was bought and paid for by the Democrat party
I'm sincerely curious. Do you know where I can find Silver discussing polls that kind of jigger with their results?
There are subtle ways to skew a poll ever so slightly. You simply change the composition of the voter pool. You want to move the needle a bit for Harris you start your polling selection with a few percentage more women. The pollster then states that they think the female turnout will be higher. Inversely, you do the opposite to skew towards Trump.
The consistently tight poll results one after another from a large body of pollsters has been called out as very unlikely by some. One wonders if many of the pollsters are deliberately trying to stay with the herd.
We will have the answer to the question of the accuracy of the polls tomorrow.
So essentially Nate Silver thinks there can be "herding" on the part of pollsters.
Silver's become a bit of a crank, but his overall point that we appear to be seeing herding seems sound.
There just isn't enough variance in the polls we are seeing released.
Or you fuck with the weighting in ways that aren't justified. (You don't adjust the selection pool itself.)
Amounts to the same thing.
Or you just don't release polls you don't want to release.
As I posted in one thread or another, Trump is quite convinced the polls he pays for just tell him what he wants to hear (according to his interview with Rogan) and that polls showing that he isn't winning are illegal and the people who make them should be arrested. (According to his stump speeches.)
This was Silver's argument (and not his alone).
If your polls aren't outliers, people won't be mad if you miss things by the same amount as everyone else.
ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Yup.
The last 2 elections overestimated Democrat vote, and it looks like it might be happening again
I tend to side with election analysts that believe you can't make out much from early voting patterns. For the most part, I think the people who voted early were very motivated voters that otherwise would have simply voted for their preferred candidate on election day.
Enthusiastic voters certainly are a good thing, but as has been said before they only count as one vote like everyone else's vote. The votes placed five minutes before the polls close counts as much as the votes from October.
Anecdotally, my friends and family that voted a few weeks ago have very clear party preferences. Some are liberal. Some are conservative. But generally, they knew who they would vote for before the two nominees were decided.
Do you mean like in 2022 when they got the big red wave? OH wait, it never happened, hmmmm. You are hilarious.
