The 2024 US Presidential election

[WyattEarp]

Do you mean like in 2022 when they got the big red wave? OH wait, it never happened, hmmmm. You are hilarious.

That's a good point. However, midterm Senate and House polling is not as extensive/intensive as Presidential polling.

Surely, you also realize when Trump's is actually on the ballot it is a very unique political phenomenon.

So we will know tomorrow evening if pollsters were in the ballpark.

By the way, the Republicans slightly underperformed the mean expectation in House election polling. The Red Wave prediction in 2022 was kind of the summer prognostication from so-called experts.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Do you mean like in 2022 when they got the big red wave? OH wait, it never happened, hmmmm. You are hilarious

No, I mean when every fricking poll under the Sun had Hillary winning in 2016

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

I think its all gonna come down to who the independents vote for.
If they go for Trump then he wins in a landslide.
If they go for Harris, then she will

 

[Valcazar]

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Not sure what that has to do with what I said, but yes, Biden won Wisconsin in 2020.

 

[Valcazar]

Yup.

The last 2 elections overestimated Democrat vote, and it looks like it might be happening again

We really don't know.
The "herding" he is talking about doesn't tell us anything about which way they are herding.

The pollsters have every incentive to not get it so wrong in the Democratic direction again and some people think they've tweaked their models too far in the other direction.

But I don't think anyone knows for sure and I've certainly seen no evidence of which direction the systematic error is happening.
I do agree with Silver's analysis that you simply would be seeing a wider range of results if people weren't fucking with things though, because that's what MOE and stats look like.

 

[WyattEarp]

Not sure what that has to do with what I said, but yes, Biden won Wisconsin in 2020.

Trump is within the reasonable bounds of rhetoric to point out how poorly Presidential polls performed when he was on the ballot. Case and point Wisconsin polls 2020.

Yes, holding polls to legal consequences for poor accuracy would be a very, very bad thing. It was very disturbing for him to say that.

 

[dirtydaveiii]

Even fox fake news Saud Haris is leading by 3% nationwide and in virtually all the battleground states. All the moron Trump supporters on terb will be gone for weeks until fox comes up with more conspiracy theories

 

[dirtydaveiii]

Trump is within the reasonable bounds of rhetoric to point out how poorly Presidential polls performed when he was on the ballot. Case and point Wisconsin polls 2020.

Yes, holding polls to legal consequences for poor accuracy would be a very, very bad thing. It was very disturbing for him to say that.

If there were legal consequences for lying or being wrong trunp would be sentenced to at least a trillion years in jail

 

[Valcazar]

I tend to side with election analysts that believe you can't make out much from early voting patterns. For the most part, I think the people who voted early were very motivated voters that otherwise would have simply voted for their preferred candidate on election day.

Enthusiastic voters certainly are a good thing, but as has been said before they only count as one vote like everyone else's vote. The votes placed five minutes before the polls close counts as much as the votes from October.

Anecdotally, my friends and family that voted a few weeks ago have very clear party preferences. Some are liberal. Some are conservative. But generally, they knew who they would vote for before the two nominees were decided.

I think the problem is that early voting became VERY polarized for the 2020 election.
You can't really compare numbers or patterns to that because it was COVID and there was an active campaign to make it politically polarized.

You might be able to compare to previous elections, but I'm not sure that post-2020 the baseline assumptions about who votes early have changed.

Like you, I just don't think you can read that much into it right now.

 

[WyattEarp]

If there were legal consequences for lying or being wrong trunp would be sentenced to at least a trillion years in jail

Well, if Trump was sentenced to a trillion years in jail it would likely be in a Democratic jurisdiction. So essentially he would be out in six months.

 

[WyattEarp]

Even fox fake news Saud Haris is leading by 3% nationwide and in virtually all the battleground states. All the moron Trump supporters on terb will be gone for weeks until fox comes up with more conspiracy theories

I think Harris might have to do better than a 3% margin nationwide to win. The individual state polls might slice it and dice it differently, but I think the prevailing thought is she might need more of a national margin.

Given the last two Presidential elections, I don't think the polls are telling us much.

As far as "even fox fake news" their poll doesn't show any special place for Trump. They had Biden up 8% just prior to the 2020 election.

Fox News Poll: Biden's lead over Trump narrows slightly to 8 points

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump in the 2020 presidential race has narrowed a touch to 8 points from a 10-point advantage in early October, according to a Fox News national survey of likely voters.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Valcazar]

Trump is within the reasonable bounds of rhetoric to point out how poorly Presidential polls performed when he was on the ballot. Case and point Wisconsin polls 2020.

Yes, holding polls to legal consequences for poor accuracy would be a very, very bad thing. It was very disturbing for him to say that.

He isn't saying they performed poorly.
He is saying they should be illegal

x.com

x.com

 

[WyattEarp]

He isn't saying they performed poorly.
He is saying they should be illegal

x.com

x.com

Yes, he can't lock pollsters up. That would be very bad.

 

[dirtydaveiii]

Yes, he can't lock pollsters up. That would be very bad.

But locking up others who have no evidence of ever having committed crimes like Hillary, Joe Biden and Jimmy Fallon is ok ?

 

[Butler1000]

I will be so glad after tomorrow night so the polls can start asking questions about the 2028 race starting on Thursday......

 

[squeezer]

No, I mean when every fricking poll under the Sun had Hillary winning in 2016

Yes, she was expected to win and Trump was a surprise. Putin did a great job!!!

I think its all gonna come down to who the independents vote for.
If they go for Trump then he wins in a landslide.
If they go for Harris, then she will

I do agree with this but I will give more weight to which candidate/party gets their base fired up more and motivated to hit the polls. I believe at this point in the game all the independents have made up their minds as to which one or if they will vote at all.


*note* I will be showering after this because I hate the thought of agreeing on anything with you so I must wash away the eeeek.

 

[WyattEarp]

I will be so glad after tomorrow night so the polls can start asking questions about the 2028 race starting on Thursday......

One thing is for sure. The next four years will be good for CNN and MSNBC if Trump wins. If Harris wins, it will be good for Fox News.

 

[WyattEarp]

*note* I will be showering after this because I hate the thought of agreeing on anything with you so I must wash away the eeeek.

C'mon, we know the shower is where you like to squeeze.

 

[squeezer]

Mitchy why has Trump changed his red maga hat to black? Is he feeling his demise coming soon and is in mourning or is it to match his new unhinged speeches a week before the vote?

Breaking News November 4, 2024 the evil mind of Donald J FatassTrump

 

[dirtydaveiii]

I will be so glad after tomorrow night so the polls can start asking questions about the 2028 race starting on Thursday......

are you going to join J6 2.0 when Donnie loses the 3rd popular vote and the 2nd straight electoral college ?