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The 2024 US Presidential election

dirtydaveiii

Well-known member
Mar 21, 2018
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Trump is within the reasonable bounds of rhetoric to point out how poorly Presidential polls performed when he was on the ballot. Case and point Wisconsin polls 2020.

Yes, holding polls to legal consequences for poor accuracy would be a very, very bad thing. It was very disturbing for him to say that.
If there were legal consequences for lying or being wrong trunp would be sentenced to at least a trillion years in jail
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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I tend to side with election analysts that believe you can't make out much from early voting patterns. For the most part, I think the people who voted early were very motivated voters that otherwise would have simply voted for their preferred candidate on election day.

Enthusiastic voters certainly are a good thing, but as has been said before they only count as one vote like everyone else's vote. The votes placed five minutes before the polls close counts as much as the votes from October.

Anecdotally, my friends and family that voted a few weeks ago have very clear party preferences. Some are liberal. Some are conservative. But generally, they knew who they would vote for before the two nominees were decided.
I think the problem is that early voting became VERY polarized for the 2020 election.
You can't really compare numbers or patterns to that because it was COVID and there was an active campaign to make it politically polarized.

You might be able to compare to previous elections, but I'm not sure that post-2020 the baseline assumptions about who votes early have changed.

Like you, I just don't think you can read that much into it right now.
 

WyattEarp

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May 17, 2017
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If there were legal consequences for lying or being wrong trunp would be sentenced to at least a trillion years in jail
Well, if Trump was sentenced to a trillion years in jail it would likely be in a Democratic jurisdiction. So essentially he would be out in six months. ;)
 

WyattEarp

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May 17, 2017
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Even fox fake news Saud Haris is leading by 3% nationwide and in virtually all the battleground states. All the moron Trump supporters on terb will be gone for weeks until fox comes up with more conspiracy theories
I think Harris might have to do better than a 3% margin nationwide to win. The individual state polls might slice it and dice it differently, but I think the prevailing thought is she might need more of a national margin.

Given the last two Presidential elections, I don't think the polls are telling us much.

As far as "even fox fake news" their poll doesn't show any special place for Trump. They had Biden up 8% just prior to the 2020 election.

 
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Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
32,700
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Trump is within the reasonable bounds of rhetoric to point out how poorly Presidential polls performed when he was on the ballot. Case and point Wisconsin polls 2020.

Yes, holding polls to legal consequences for poor accuracy would be a very, very bad thing. It was very disturbing for him to say that.
He isn't saying they performed poorly.
He is saying they should be illegal
 

Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
30,426
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I will be so glad after tomorrow night so the polls can start asking questions about the 2028 race starting on Thursday......
 
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squeezer

Well-known member
Jan 8, 2010
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No, I mean when every fricking poll under the Sun had Hillary winning in 2016

Yes, she was expected to win and Trump was a surprise. Putin did a great job!!!

I think its all gonna come down to who the independents vote for.
If they go for Trump then he wins in a landslide.
If they go for Harris, then she will
I do agree with this but I will give more weight to which candidate/party gets their base fired up more and motivated to hit the polls. I believe at this point in the game all the independents have made up their minds as to which one or if they will vote at all.


*note* I will be showering after this because I hate the thought of agreeing on anything with you so I must wash away the eeeek.
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
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I will be so glad after tomorrow night so the polls can start asking questions about the 2028 race starting on Thursday......
One thing is for sure. The next four years will be good for CNN and MSNBC if Trump wins. If Harris wins, it will be good for Fox News.
 
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mitchell76

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Aug 10, 2010
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NEW: Obama praises Walz’ blue-collar bonafides — slams Trump: "Do you think Donald Trump has ever changed a tire in his life?" The man worth 70M+ with 4 mansions is actually sermonizing about what it means to be a working-class American. Unreal. Obama then goes on a strange rant about Trump having a chauffeur named “Jeeves." "Do you think Donald Trump has ever changed the tire in his life? If he gets a flat tire, he calls his chauffeur, Jeeves. Jeeves, change that tire! I don't know if his chauffeur is actually named Jeeves, but I like to think it's Jeeves." Obama has lost his fastball. This is bottom-tier propaganda.
 
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WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
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*note* I will be showering after this because I hate the thought of agreeing on anything with you so I must wash away the eeeek.
C'mon, we know the shower is where you like to squeeze.
 

mitchell76

Well-known member
Aug 10, 2010
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Kamala Harris is building a wall around her House ahead of the Election tomorrow
🚨
.
@LoomerUnleashed

@TheCharlesDowns
just captured this video of a wall being built around Kamala’s house. Kamala gets a wall, but our southern border doesn’t. This is all being done in preparation for a Trump victory because Democrat voters behave like animals when they don’t get their way. Clearly, Democrats despise the American people!
 
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squeezer

Well-known member
Jan 8, 2010
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Mitchy why has Trump changed his red maga hat to black? Is he feeling his demise coming soon and is in mourning or is it to match his new unhinged speeches a week before the vote?

Breaking News November 4, 2024 the evil mind of Donald J FatassTrump

 

dirtydaveiii

Well-known member
Mar 21, 2018
7,273
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I will be so glad after tomorrow night so the polls can start asking questions about the 2028 race starting on Thursday......
are you going to join J6 2.0 when Donnie loses the 3rd popular vote and the 2nd straight electoral college ?
 

Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
30,426
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are you going to join J6 2.0 when Donnie loses the 3rd popular vote and the 2nd straight electoral college ?
Really? Um, no. I will head home after my shift, make some breakfast, catch some zzzzz's. Check out some pundits for fun later.

In fact here is how I plan to watch it that night.

I will open my browser to 4 tabs. CNN for actual speedy and clear results. Probably muted. And Breaking Points for general running commentary, probably on my phone.

As results come in if it's good news for Harris I will switch a bit to Fox to the meltdown. If it's good news for Trump I will switch to MSNBC for the meltdown.

A clear winner early I will play Diablo 4 when the coverage gets monotonous.

I will not get emotional about either way really. Why should I?
 
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Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
32,700
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113
I will be so glad after tomorrow night so the polls can start asking questions about the 2028 race starting on Thursday......
I'm surprised they haven't started asking those a month ago.
 
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