Terb is so negative...

[fuji]

...on the stock market. On my little unscientific terb poll the overwhelming majority think the market is going to fall further, or at best go sideways.

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=223983

So here is the NEW question... is that a contrarian indicator? If everybody thinks it`s going to get worse, does that mean it`s now time to buy?

I have always heard that the time to buy is when everyone`s scared, and the time to sell is when everyone else is getting greedy.

 

[squash500]

I think that now is the time to buy . With gics only paying around 1.5% I might as well buy some etfs. I'm looking at xiu, xeg, xfn, xdv and xgd especially.

I'm getting ready for tomorrow--lol.

 

[hunter001]

It depends on how long you want to be in the market and what your risk tolerance is.

Markets rarely rise unchecked or fall without some minor recoveries. It really depends on your outlook.

 

[Rockslinger]

The TSX and S&P have already fallen 40% and some U.S. bank stocks have fallen 99% so how much more downside risk is there? Have any asset class gone up in the past 12 months?

 

[shack]

I have always heard that the time to buy is when everyone's scared, and the time to sell is when everyone else is getting greedy.

I've got some unused reserves on my RRSP limit that I can use this year, a new line of credit at prime and I intend to contribute a big chunk. Money is cheap and there are some good buys out there.

 

[Barca]

I have always heard that the time to buy is when everyone's scared, and the time to sell is when everyone else is getting greedy.

After everything we disagreed on it's nice to see we can agree.

This is in fact a general rule on the trading desks. When the grandmas are buying the latest "hot" item...that's the time to get out. And when people who held out for the entire sell-off are finally capitulating and are completely despondent...that's when you start buying.

Nick Murray believes bear markets are the opportunists biggest advantage. I would have to agree. But it takes balls of brass to jump in. But those that do, generally outperform those that don't.

 

[FOOTSNIFFER]

A better bet at this point would be a broad basket of corporate bonds, an ETF of convertible bonds, and some american REITs are giving yields of over 14% (and those are the better ones, that is to say those that have good payment coverage, low payout ratios, and no need to refinance in the near future). If you buy the bonds of individual companies, you had better be sure of the financial standing of that company...remember Bernie Madoff: understand fully what you're buying or don't buy it at all. That's why buying a basket of them through an ETF, a closed or open-ended mutual fund is better for most people.

Some stocks are good too, of course. But bonds are more secure in this environment...and their payouts are (more) guaranteed than either common dividends or waiting for the next bull market to come around, which could take years to arrive.

Remember that this bear market started in 1999....we're 10 years into it now...the bear phase of 1931-1954 lasted as long as 23 years, the bear phase of 1966-1982 lasted 16 years but in inflation-adjusted terms, you never really were made whole in 1966 dollars until all the way in 1992. The odds are that this bear has some ways to go....so go for the guaranteed payout of a well diversified corporate bond/convertible bond portfolio (don't touch long treasury bonds!!! - they're garbage). That's my 2 cents.

 

[Barca]

A better bet at this point would be a broad basket of corporate bonds, and ETF of convertible bonds, and some american REITs are giving yields of over 14% (and those are the better ones, that is to say those that have good payment coverage, low payout ratios, and no need to refinance in the near future). Some stocks are good too, of course. But bonds are more secure in this environment...and their payouts are (more) guaranteed than either common dividends or waiting for the next bull market, which could take years to arrive. Remember that this bear market started in 1999....we're 10 years into it now...the bear phase of 1931-1954 lasted as long as 23 years, the bear phase of 1966-1982 lasted 16 years but in inflation-adjusted terms, you never really were made whole in 1966 dollars until all the way in 1992. The odds are that this bear has some ways to go....so go for the guaranteed payout of a well diversified corporate bond/convertible bond portfolio (don't touch long treasury bonds!!! - they're garbage). That's my 2 cents.

High Yield Corporate I think has some upside as spreads will eventually move in. Long government bonds are going to get absolutely WHACKED once the stimulus kicks in. Anyone who believes legislation being passed around the world trying to kick-start the economies may in fact trigger long-term inflation should make sure to get out of long bonds at some point.

 

[JohnLarue]

I would argue that if you find a well run company with good growth prospects paying a juicy dividend, and it is not expensive on a time relative basis, then buy a small amount, then three six months later if all is well buy it again (in small amounts) and so on.

Then sit back and let the the company work for you. Over time you will make money if you spread it around over different companies, sectors, currencies and over time

While you can take money out of the market if you perceive a great deal of risk (Last summer / fall), there are very few people (i.e. next to zero) who can time the market and absolutely zero people who can do it with any consistency (over a 10 to 20 years period)

 

[FOOTSNIFFER]

High Yield Corporate I think has some upside as spreads will eventually move in. Long government bonds are going to get absolutely WHACKED once the stimulus kicks in. Anyone who believes legislation being passed around the world trying to kick-start the economies may in fact trigger long-term inflation should make sure to get out of long bonds at some point.

Yes, I've got a short position in a bear ETF (forgot the code...TFT I think)...If they fix the banking system, a big if I know, then there's a good chance that the velocity of moneywill start to pick up again. All that nice liquidity the Fed's been dropping into the system will get inconvenient again really quick. I just think it's a good hedge to short long treasuries and go long converts/corporates.