The stock market crash is...
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I voted for weak recovery but that's partly because I'm an inherent optimist, and the market has not been dropping as much lately.
I still find statements like, "a staggering 40% of American mortgages originated in the first quarter of 2007 were interest-only or negative-amortisation loans" troubling (quote from The Economist this week). It seems like as unemployment picks up even prime mortgages may turn out to be duds for banks that are already on life support having been badly burned by subprime.
On the other hand there's only so far it can fall, people do tend to over-react in a panic, and the massive interest rate cuts have to kick in sooner or later.
Despite my slight optimism I think the stimulus packages are required--option #1 on the poll is a possibility and if it happens we are really truly fucked in a way that overspending a little on a stimulus would never fuck us.
I still find statements like, "a staggering 40% of American mortgages originated in the first quarter of 2007 were interest-only or negative-amortisation loans" troubling (quote from The Economist this week). It seems like as unemployment picks up even prime mortgages may turn out to be duds for banks that are already on life support having been badly burned by subprime.
On the other hand there's only so far it can fall, people do tend to over-react in a panic, and the massive interest rate cuts have to kick in sooner or later.
Despite my slight optimism I think the stimulus packages are required--option #1 on the poll is a possibility and if it happens we are really truly fucked in a way that overspending a little on a stimulus would never fuck us.
I think part of the recovery issue for stocks will be the following facts:
the majority of North Americans have had their retirement accounts gutted.
the majority of financial advisors have been frothing at the mouth telling people to keep investing even in a downturn because over time the investments will increase in value.
the majority of the people that invest have been doing so through mutual funds and those people are starting to notice that the only people making money off of those accounts are the fund managers that have been charging them fees while performing poorly.
the majority of the banks that people buy those funds through have received tax payer bailout money without showing any benefit to their end customers and flaunting their newly gained weath on excessive bonus payments and remuneration schemes.
In summary, I think the masses may be reaching their boiling point and realizing that the only people that make money off the stock market are the ones that control the stock market.
the majority of North Americans have had their retirement accounts gutted.
the majority of financial advisors have been frothing at the mouth telling people to keep investing even in a downturn because over time the investments will increase in value.
the majority of the people that invest have been doing so through mutual funds and those people are starting to notice that the only people making money off of those accounts are the fund managers that have been charging them fees while performing poorly.
the majority of the banks that people buy those funds through have received tax payer bailout money without showing any benefit to their end customers and flaunting their newly gained weath on excessive bonus payments and remuneration schemes.
In summary, I think the masses may be reaching their boiling point and realizing that the only people that make money off the stock market are the ones that control the stock market.
And how, pray tell, do the know about these things? And if they're so good at predicting stuff, why aren't they living on their own Bahamian island?Compromised said:
It looks like history is repeating itself.
I think Obama’s economic stimulus package will make sure that a recovery doesn’t happen anytime soon.
It’s just like Roosevelt’s new plan where he tried to spend is way out of the recession. It didn’t work and only made things worse.
Obama’s stimulus package will cost about 2.2 trillion dollars and give the US about a 3 billion deficit. That will cause high interest rates, and massive devaluation of the dollar.
I think Obama’s economic stimulus package will make sure that a recovery doesn’t happen anytime soon.
It’s just like Roosevelt’s new plan where he tried to spend is way out of the recession. It didn’t work and only made things worse.
Obama’s stimulus package will cost about 2.2 trillion dollars and give the US about a 3 billion deficit. That will cause high interest rates, and massive devaluation of the dollar.
Bloomberg cut all the free press in Japan. It's going to get worse. The Madoff silence is what's holding it all together. When Madoff's investments like Google are brought out, that will be the final drop. The landscape will try and shutdown the Googles and Amazons out there, only way to get brick & mortar goin' again. Depression will be shifted towards China, Wal Mart collapses. Campbell soup will save China. Where else to have a soup line. The stimulus is shit. Banks hording cash, will get broken up. Jobs pay shit. USA has to pay health insurance with co-pays and deductibles so the fat asses females can sit at one desk and cough up attitude. That will stop and the fat asses inside hospitals and clinics will be holding boxes the size of their fat asses as they are finally kicked out.
Stuff like that.
Dow down to 7000. I want 6500, but I think it won't get that low. The Nikkei may get to 6500. But Obama will bottom this. He's pretty bullshit 'bout it.
New fishbowls with hot Chinese women coming. When you see that, and cargo increasing on airlines, with the ability to fly to Bangkok to get laid, bottom is over, bull market.
Gyaos Baltar.
Stuff like that.
Dow down to 7000. I want 6500, but I think it won't get that low. The Nikkei may get to 6500. But Obama will bottom this. He's pretty bullshit 'bout it.
New fishbowls with hot Chinese women coming. When you see that, and cargo increasing on airlines, with the ability to fly to Bangkok to get laid, bottom is over, bull market.
Gyaos Baltar.
Personally I think we are going to see weak markets until summer. We may head even lower here but not like the drop from the highs of June.
Markets are still jittery until the stimulus packages all start getting spent as opposed to just talk.
And the bloodletting in the job market needs to stop.
Until those two things happen, equities will continue their sideways movements with occasional dips of 5-10% but then with equal recoveries.
Markets are still jittery until the stimulus packages all start getting spent as opposed to just talk.
And the bloodletting in the job market needs to stop.
Until those two things happen, equities will continue their sideways movements with occasional dips of 5-10% but then with equal recoveries.
I think the markets will have some nice bounces but they are going to go much lower.
It is a traders' market and most people who buy and hold and average down are going to get crushed.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/689-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2009.html
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
It is a traders' market and most people who buy and hold and average down are going to get crushed.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/689-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2009.html
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
Prize for honesty goes to S.C. Joe.S.C. Joe said:I have no fucken idea
At the best of times, the market is chaotic. Trying to time the bottom/top is a fool's errand; simply put, there's no way to know.
squash500 said:I could say just the exact opposite and have just as equal a chance of being right as you are.
When there are only two options...that statement will always hold true.
The difference is track record. I have one. You don't. Case closed.
barca said:
How do you know I don't have a track record? For all you know I could have done better in the market than you did last year?
Just because you are a financial advisor means nothing
. A lot of advisors lost a boatload of money for their clients last year. Just my opinion.I am not a financial advisor, you assumed that because I defend advisors. If you had paid attention to the posts in the threads you have been commenting in you would have already known that I am a trader on an actual trading floor.
On the other hand, I have been paying attention to your posts in these types of threads, and I am quite confident that you fall inline with all the rest of the day traders out there, meaning I have nothing to worry about your "track record".
On the other hand, I have been paying attention to your posts in these types of threads, and I am quite confident that you fall inline with all the rest of the day traders out there, meaning I have nothing to worry about your "track record".
