Sweden COVID-19 Death Rate Lower Than Spain, Italy and U.K., Despite Never Having Lockdown

Phil C. McNasty

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As well when you're comparing Sweden to Spain, there is a large population difference as Spain is almost 5X more populated than Sweden, meanwhile they are very close in land size, making it a large difference in country population density than Sweden.
Sweden also has a lot more of their population living in single households than Spain does. Which both of these two facts have a significant affect on the spread of the Coronavirus
So my facebook buddy says you're full of shit. He said around 90% of Swedes live in urban areas.
The northern parts of Sweden and mountain areas are almost completely unpopulated.
So there's goes that theory you pulled out of your ass.

I looked it up and its true: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden

The population density is just over 25 people per km² (65 per square mile), with 1 437 persons per km² in localities (continuous settlement with at least 200 inhabitants).[14],[15] 87% of the population live in urban areas, which cover 1.5% of the entire land area.[16] 63% of Swedes are in large urban areas.[16] The population density is substantially higher in the south than in the north.

The capital city Stockholm has a municipal population of about 950,000 (with 1.5 million in the urban area and 2.3 million in the metropolitan area). The second- and third-largest cities are Gothenburg and Malmö. Greater Gothenburg counts just over a million inhabitants and the same goes for the western part of Scania, along the Öresund. The Öresund Region, the Danish-Swedish cross-border region around the Öresund that Malmö is part of, has a population of 4 million. Outside of major cities, areas with notably higher population density include the agricultural part of Östergötland, the western coast, the area around Lake Mälaren and the agricultural area around Uppsala.

Norrland, which covers approximately 60% of the Swedish territory, has a very low population density (below 5 people per square kilometer). The mountains and most of the remote coastal areas are almost unpopulated

The Southern parts of Sweden (where about 90% of Swedes live) are almost identical to Spain in density

 

Phil C. McNasty

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What you keep failing to understand is that Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway not only share so many sociologial similarities, societal norms in countries than any of them do with other European nation. As well all these countries originally saw the spread of the Coronavirus in a same time frame
Societal norms in this case have nothing to do with the spread of the virus.
More bullshit you pulled out of your ass

As usual more facts that you do not understand, Spain did not lock down as soon as they were exposed to the Coronavirus pandemic
I never said they did. I clearly said in my previous post they locked down March 14th.
Your bullshit continues

Bottom line is Sweden managed to flatten their curve without adopting strict lockdown and masks measures.
In the last week they only had 9 deaths and a few hundred new infections.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
How is this possible if nobody is wearing masks and bars, restaurants....etc are wide open??
It doesnt make sense, their new infection rates should be skyrocketing and they're not.

The best theory I read online is from an Israeli scientist. He says this:

Approximately 50% of the Swedish population already have some resistance to Covid-19, the natural suppression rate kicks in when 66% - 50% = 16% of the population have been infected. Since the presentation of Covid is so varied, they are guessing that for every one actually sick person we see, about 10 more are infected and either don't even notice, or have such minor symptoms they don't bother to go to get tested. So that means once we see around 1.6% of the population confirmed positive, it's actually 16% and we're seeing natural suppression of new cases.

85000 total (confirmed) cases out of 10.1M population is not 1.6%, it's about half that, but he postulates they've reached that total in Stockholm and maybe some of the other larger cities.

This is not the same as herd immunity, but it's the inflection point past which a logarithmic increase in cases can no longer occur (in other words, the R0 is suppressed because there's not enough susceptible new people to infect around)
This to me sounds like the most logical explanation
 

lenny2

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Your remark is not supported by any evidence.

Health experts, the CDC, etc, say masks do make a difference.

"The Black Lives Matter protests, where mask-wearing by protesters was widespread, didn’t seem to cause a significant spike in infections. In several Asian countries where mask use has long been widespread, like South Korea and Japan, masks seemed to play a role in reducing transmission as well.

“It’s definitely hard to miss that relationship — that the countries with widespread mask-wearing seem to have it better under control,”..."


"Face Masks Really Do Matter. The Scientific Evidence Is Growing.
New research suggests that face coverings help reduce the transmission of droplets, though some masks are more protective than others"

"
Face masks are emerging as one of the most powerful weapons to fight the new coronavirus, with growing evidence that facial coverings help prevent transmission—even if an infected wearer is in close contact with others.

"Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said he believes the pandemic could be brought under control over the next four to eight weeks if “we could get everybody to wear a mask right now.” His comments, made in mid-July with the Journal of the American Medical Association, followed an editorial he and others wrote there emphasizing “ample evidence” of asymptomatic spread and highlighting new studies showing how masks help reduce transmission.

"... . An analysis published in July in the BMJ, a medical journal, found that face coverings are now recommended or mandated in 160 countries to reduce coronavirus transmission.

 

lenny2

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Bottom line is Sweden managed to flatten their curve without adopting strict lockdown and masks measures.
Like their neighbouring mostly maskless countries Swedish people largely stayed at home voluntarily & practiced social distancing. However Sweden has suffered way more deaths & infections, including the long term negative health effects associated with C-19 survivors.

In the last week they only had 9 deaths and a few hundred new infections.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Just as their neighboring countries did who have way fewer (about 5 times fewer) deaths than Sweden with a 50% larger combined population than Sweden.

How is this possible if nobody is wearing masks and bars, restaurants....etc are wide open??
Easy. Swedes mostly chose to stay at home & not visit bars & restaurants. And those that did visit them largely practiced social distancing. Also very few of them were in the high risk category.

It doesnt make sense, their new infection rates should be skyrocketing and they're not.
It makes perfect sense. Especially when you add in other possible factors such as i already listed to you in post #55 of this thread:

Sweden has a very high incidence of people living alone relative to Spain which makes Sweden safer.

Spain didn't make masks compulsory on public transport till May, long after the worst problems with C-19 in Spain. Since then the daily deaths have been generally declining. Over the past 2.5 months there have been very few deaths each day. Spain has practically flattened the curve.

Spain also probably had more visitors from early pandemic hotspots like Italy, China, Iran.

Spain may also have had more "super spreaders" of C-19.

Spain's cities are much more populated than Sweden's which can easily lead to more people quickly becoming infected.

Sweden did largely shutdown their economy voluntarily, many choosing to shut themselves in at home, work from home, not go out shopping or eating, practicing social distancing & hand washing, etc. OTOH Spain did not "completely lock down", as you allege. Nowhere on earth did they do that.

What i've stated in this post lists just a few of the many variables that can affect a countries number of infections & deaths & cause them to differ from those of another country.


The best theory I read online is from an Israeli scientist. He says this:

"Approximately 50% of the Swedish population already have some resistance to Covid-19, the natural suppression rate kicks in when 66% - 50% = 16% of the population have been infected. Since the presentation of Covid is so varied, they are guessing that for every one actually sick person we see, about 10 more are infected and either don't even notice, or have such minor symptoms they don't bother to go to get tested. So that means once we see around 1.6% of the population confirmed positive, it's actually 16% and we're seeing natural suppression of new cases.

85000 total (confirmed) cases out of 10.1M population is not 1.6%, it's about half that, but he postulates they've reached that total in Stockholm and maybe some of the other larger cities.

This is not the same as herd immunity, but it's the inflection point past which a logarithmic increase in cases can no longer occur (in other words, the R0 is suppressed because there's not enough susceptible new people to infect around)"

This to me sounds like the most logical explanation
Health experts don't support that theory. Having "some resistance" does not equate to being unable to become infected.

" "The reproductive rate of the infection declined drastically as a result of these non-compulsory measures," he said."

"... Yet life in Sweden has still changed for many of its 10 million citizens, prompting immunologists to suggest its strategy can't be seen as relaxed, just less stringent.

"The Swedish Government did put some restrictions in place. Large gatherings were banned and Swedes were asked to avoid non-essential travel, work from home, and to isolate if they were unwell.

"And unlike many European countries which first shut up shop and then re-opened for summer, most of Sweden's measures to curb infections remain the same.

"...It was estimated that by rejecting tougher measures, 40 per cent of Stockholm's population would have achieved herd immunity by May.

"Now, some studies suggest that never materialised.

"A paper published by the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine found about 15-20 per cent of the population in the capital had developed antibodies.

"... "They've had a death rate that's 10 times per million population of the local countries, which really are their best comparison."

"... He said antibodies weren't found in high rates in asymptomatic patients, meaning they're not likely to be immune.

"...As for the short-term, Dr Tegnell recently said that rapid testing and contact tracing will be key to the second stage of Sweden's attempt to weather the pandemic.

"Professor Dillner said many infectious diseases experts are cautiously waiting to see whether Sweden will be properly prepared for a second wave of infections in the European autumn and winter.

" "This is the big worry, no-one knows what happens in the future."

 

doggystyle99

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So my facebook buddy says you're full of shit. He said around 90% of Swedes live in urban areas.
The northern parts of Sweden and mountain areas are almost completely unpopulated.
So there's goes that theory you pulled out of your ass.

I looked it up and its true: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sweden

The Southern parts of Sweden (where about 90% of Swedes live) are almost identical to Spain in density

Glad you got a facebook buddy that has some idea about facts, but here are more facts and not so called theories.

Sweden's urban opulation is 88%, and Spain's urban population is 80% which is not much of a difference specially when comparing a country of only 10+ Million to a country of 46+ Million.

Where the difference are vast is the single person households and population density as a country and in many cities.

Sweden has Over 1.9 Million single person household which represents over 40% of the 4.7 Million households
Spain has over 4.6 Million single person households which represents only 25% of the 18.5 Million households


What does that mean, it means more people in Sweden live in single person households than they do in Spain by a large percentage as I pointed out earlier.

Spain and Sweden are nowhere identical in population density not as a country and certainly not as densely populated cities.
In Sweden there are 3 cities with a population of at least 200,000, in Spain there are 36 cities with a population of more than 200,000
Population density of Sweden as a country is 25/km2 where Spain as a country is 94/km2


Now you might say that population density as a country is meaningless and it's more important as a city.
Sweden's highest populated city and most densely populated is Stockholm with over 975,000 and a population density of 5190/km2, which is lower in density than the following Spanish cities.
Madrid 5380/km2, Valencia 5900/km2, A Coruna 6510/km2, Bilbao 8700/km2, Cadiz 9700/km2 and Barcelona 15,990/km2
BTW Seville is almost close to Stockholm in population density as well at 5020/km2

What does that mean, exactly what I pointed out earlier, it means there is a large difference in population density of the two countries and many cities are higher in Spain than Sweden.

Now Phil you've used up your phone a friend, ask the audience, and 50/50 lifelines. You ain't got no more lifelines left.
 
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doggystyle99

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Societal norms in this case have nothing to do with the spread of the virus.
More bullshit you pulled out of your ass
They actually do, that's why in the first weeks of shutdowns in Italy there were 52,000 summons issued to people for disobeying the guidelines set by the government.
There is no doubt that sociological and societal norms of the countries population aka human behaviour plays a large role on being able to control the virus.

I never said they did. I clearly said in my previous post they locked down March 14th.
Your bullshit continues

Bottom line is Sweden managed to flatten their curve without adopting strict lockdown and masks measures.
In the last week they only had 9 deaths and a few hundred new infections.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
How is this possible if nobody is wearing masks and bars, restaurants....etc are wide open??
It doesnt make sense, their new infection rates should be skyrocketing and they're not.
What you keep repeating is that you can't understand how countries that have locked down or that have instituted stricter measures than Sweden have as bad a per million cases as Sweden does.
What you keep ignoring is that these countries that you are comparing Sweden to either waited until their healthcare system were overburdened or waited until the spread of the number of cases were so high that to reduce and trace the cases would take weeks if not months (UK, Italy, France, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium)

In the last week August 13 - August 20th Sweden has had 1762 cases, far higher than what all their Nordic bordering neighbours had combined of 1412 with a combined larger population.
Denmark, 870, Norway 379 and Finlad 163 had on their own.

The best theory I read online is from an Israeli scientist. He says this:



This to me sounds like the most logical explanation
You are simply flinging any possible non factual opinion you can come up with or any talking point you've heard of to see if it sticks. That theory couldn't be more false and is not based on scientific data.
The reasons why Sweden's numbers and per million are far higher than those of it's bordering neighbours are those of what I have explained to you numerous times.
There are already studies that has shown the Swedish population hasn't been exposed to the virus more than anyone else and studies by the government has already shown only 7% of the population had shown antibodies for the Coronavirus, far lower than what the government had expected originally of 33% by the end of May and the re adjusted number of 26%.

 
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basketcase

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Societal norms in this case have nothing to do with the spread of the virus.
More bullshit you pulled out of your ass
...
In case you missed it, science tries to eliminate extraneous variables. With societies, we can't isolate them all but we can compare results in similar circumstances.

Just like Canada has many things in common with the US, Sweden has many things in common with its neighbours. That is why the comparison between Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark make a lot of sense.

Sweden has a much higher death rate than its neighbours and suffered very similar economic repercussions. Pretty clearly shows that Sweden's response was problematic.
 

Mr.Know-It-All

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Sweden is fortunate they won't have a second wave, unlike Canada and elsewhere that locked down. The Swedes were wise.
 

shack

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Glad you got a facebook buddy that has some idea about facts, but here are more facts and not so called theories.
He also has a grandfather who has lived in a few places in Canada who says that weather patterns and temperature extremes have not changed in his lifetime as evidence that global climate change is a hoax.

However, if we need to prove that masks work, he needs 100% agreement from ALL scientists.
 
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lenny2

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Sweden is fortunate they won't have a second wave, unlike Canada and elsewhere that locked down. The Swedes were wise.
With only a small percentage showing antibodies to C-19 in Sweden while a large percentage have been hiding in their homes for months, it may be a bit early to say Sweden will definitely avoid a second or third wave.
 

Phil C. McNasty

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Like their neighbouring mostly maskless countries Swedish people largely stayed at home voluntarily & practiced social distancing. However Sweden has suffered way more deaths & infections, including the long term negative health effects associated with C-19 survivors.



Just as their neighboring countries did who have way fewer (about 5 times fewer) deaths than Sweden with a 50% larger combined population than Sweden.



Easy. Swedes mostly chose to stay at home & not visit bars & restaurants. And those that did visit them largely practiced social distancing. Also very few of them were in the high risk category.



It makes perfect sense. Especially when you add in other possible factors such as i already listed to you in post #55 of this thread:

Sweden has a very high incidence of people living alone relative to Spain which makes Sweden safer.

Spain didn't make masks compulsory on public transport till May, long after the worst problems with C-19 in Spain. Since then the daily deaths have been generally declining. Over the past 2.5 months there have been very few deaths each day. Spain has practically flattened the curve.

Spain also probably had more visitors from early pandemic hotspots like Italy, China, Iran.

Spain may also have had more "super spreaders" of C-19.

Spain's cities are much more populated than Sweden's which can easily lead to more people quickly becoming infected.

Sweden did largely shutdown their economy voluntarily, many choosing to shut themselves in at home, work from home, not go out shopping or eating, practicing social distancing & hand washing, etc. OTOH Spain did not "completely lock down", as you allege. Nowhere on earth did they do that.

What i've stated in this post lists just a few of the many variables that can affect a countries number of infections & deaths & cause them to differ from those of another country.




Health experts don't support that theory. Having "some resistance" does not equate to being unable to become infected.

" "The reproductive rate of the infection declined drastically as a result of these non-compulsory measures," he said."

"... Yet life in Sweden has still changed for many of its 10 million citizens, prompting immunologists to suggest its strategy can't be seen as relaxed, just less stringent.

"The Swedish Government did put some restrictions in place. Large gatherings were banned and Swedes were asked to avoid non-essential travel, work from home, and to isolate if they were unwell.

"And unlike many European countries which first shut up shop and then re-opened for summer, most of Sweden's measures to curb infections remain the same.

"...It was estimated that by rejecting tougher measures, 40 per cent of Stockholm's population would have achieved herd immunity by May.

"Now, some studies suggest that never materialised.

"A paper published by the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine found about 15-20 per cent of the population in the capital had developed antibodies.

"... "They've had a death rate that's 10 times per million population of the local countries, which really are their best comparison."

"... He said antibodies weren't found in high rates in asymptomatic patients, meaning they're not likely to be immune.

"...As for the short-term, Dr Tegnell recently said that rapid testing and contact tracing will be key to the second stage of Sweden's attempt to weather the pandemic.

"Professor Dillner said many infectious diseases experts are cautiously waiting to see whether Sweden will be properly prepared for a second wave of infections in the European autumn and winter.

" "This is the big worry, no-one knows what happens in the future."

In case you missed it, science tries to eliminate extraneous variables. With societies, we can't isolate them all but we can compare results in similar circumstances.

Just like Canada has many things in common with the US, Sweden has many things in common with its neighbours. That is why the comparison between Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark make a lot of sense.

Sweden has a much higher death rate than its neighbours and suffered very similar economic repercussions. Pretty clearly shows that Sweden's response was problematic.
Glad you got a facebook buddy that has some idea about facts, but here are more facts and not so called theories.

Sweden's urban opulation is 88%, and Spain's urban population is 80% which is not much of a difference specially when comparing a country of only 10+ Million to a country of 46+ Million.

Where the difference are vast is the single person households and population density as a country and in many cities.

Sweden has Over 1.9 Million single person household which represents over 40% of the 4.7 Million households
Spain has over 4.6 Million single person households which represents only 25% of the 18.5 Million households


What does that mean, it means more people in Sweden live in single person households than they do in Spain by a large percentage as I pointed out earlier.

Spain and Sweden are nowhere identical in population density not as a country and certainly not as densely populated cities.
In Sweden there are 3 cities with a population of at least 200,000, in Spain there are 36 cities with a population of more than 200,000
Population density of Sweden as a country is 25/km2 where Spain as a country is 94/km2


Now you might say that population density as a country is meaningless and it's more important as a city.
Sweden's highest populated city and most densely populated is Stockholm with over 975,000 and a population density of 5190/km2, which is lower in density than the following Spanish cities.
Madrid 5380/km2, Valencia 5900/km2, A Coruna 6510/km2, Bilbao 8700/km2, Cadiz 9700/km2 and Barcelona 15,990/km2
BTW Seville is almost close to Stockholm in population density as well at 5020/km2

What does that mean, exactly what I pointed out earlier, it means there is a large difference in population density of the two countries and many cities are higher in Spain than Sweden
None of your responses have adequately explained why Sweden has managed to get their death rate down to almost zero without any drastic lockdown measures. See graph. There has to be some other explanation as to how they did that. The Israeli theory appears to be the most logical one

 

Phil C. McNasty

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Here is Sweden's top disease expert saying the same thing. Masks dont do much and can even give people a false sense of security:


Sweden’s disease expert says just wearing face masks could be ‘very dangerous’

Sweden’s top infectious disease expert has resisted recommending face masks for the general population — arguing it’s “very dangerous” if people believe the coverings alone will stop the spread of the coronavirus.

Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, has repeatedly expressed skepticism that face masks will control virus outbreaks, the Financial Times reported.

“It is very dangerous to believe face masks would change the game when it comes to COVID-19,” said Tengell, who is considered the country’s equivalent of Dr. Anthony Fauci from the White House COVID-19 task force.

He noted that countries with widespread mask compliance, such as Belgium and Spain, were still seeing rising virus rates.

“Face masks can be a complement to other things when other things are safely in place,” he said. “But to start with having face masks and then think you can crowd your buses or your shopping malls — that’s definitely a mistake.”

He completely brushed off the prospect of wearing masks last month, saying, “With numbers diminishing very quickly in Sweden, we see no point in wearing a face mask in Sweden, not even on public transport.”

Tegnell has argued that evidence about the effectiveness of face mask use was “astonishingly weak.”

“I’m surprised that we don’t have more or better studies showing what effect masks actually have,” he told the UK Times
 

squeezer

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Phil C. McNasty

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lenny2

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None of your responses have adequately explained why Sweden has managed to get their death rate down to almost zero without any drastic lockdown measures.
That's easily explained. The vast majority of deaths in Sweden were among the old in retirement homes. Sweden failed to protect them in the early pandemic. Now that Sweden is protecting them, deaths are down. And most people getting infected now are the relatively young & healthy who are at little risk of death. Simple. It's not rocket science.

The same thing has occurred in many other countries.

And, again, the Swedes largely shut down their economy voluntarily - by staying home, working from home, etc - yet had way more infections and deaths than their neighbours as they left their elderly relatively unprotected.

 
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jcpro

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Another attempt to avoid discussing how much higher Sweden's death rate was compared to their neighbours?
It's a stupid comparison. It's like comparing NY or even parts of it to its immediate neighbors. It means exactly dick. In NY city the virus swept through the retirement residences, inflating the mortality rates, just like it did in Sweden. Maybe Denmark or Norway have fewer long term care facilities (they do). Maybe they were just lucky.
 
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Phil C. McNasty

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That's easily explained. The vast majority of deaths in Sweden were among the old in retirement homes. Sweden failed to protect them in the early pandemic
How the heck do you protect someone inside a retirement home?? They are already quarantined, they have healthcare workers looking after them (who I presume are wearing masks), what more could you possibly do for them??
 

Phil C. McNasty

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And, again, the Swedes largely shut down their economy voluntarily - by staying home, working from home, etc - yet had way more infections and deaths than their neighbours as they left their elderly relatively unprotected.

They left their bars and restaurants open.
Plus almost nobody wore masks
 

lenny2

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How the heck do you protect someone inside a retirement home?? They are already quarantined, they have healthcare workers looking after them (who I presume are wearing masks), what more could you possibly do for them??
Locking down the economy so the C-19 virus is not so free to spread is one obvious way. Sweden BTW has admitted to a failure to protect their elderly in the early pandemic:

 
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