Steve Ballmer's Nightmare Is Coming True

[WinterHawk]

As usual, your wrong...

First:

IDG: 91% of business pros use iPad to get things done as workers ditch notebooks

Source: IDG
......

http://www.idgconnect.com/download/8007/ipad-business-survey-2012?source=connect


Second:

Ipad adoption by doctors is soaring and reportedly 62% of U.S. doctors use one for professional purposes.

http://www.themedicalbag.com/techtip/ipad-use-for-physicians

And so on:

As of April 2012, 94 percent of the Fortune 500 and 70 percent of the Global 500 were either deploying or testing it. Driving that trend: A steady increase in useful business apps and the so-called “consumerization of IT,” which sees the rank and file acclimatizing enterprise to consumer devices.

http://allthingsd.com/20120719/buyers-of-latest-ipad-more-likely-to-use-it-for-business/

I'm afraid you're not getting the picture. You're just pointing out that an iPad is becoming the device which is replacing PAPER. So instead of a doctor taking out his pen and completing a form in triplicate, he's now going to his iPad and ticking a box? You're using something like that to say that Microsoft is doomed because an iPad is easier, sexier to carry around than a binder, a pad of paper and a couple of coloured pens?

I used to have to documents my system changes using preprinted forms, a 3 ring binder, an IBM Selectric Typerwriter and some whiteout for mistakes. Then I moved on to an IBM Document writer. Now I use Word for Windows and Outlook for email, storing my documentation electronically in Sharepoint. Tell me, where does that form the doctor is looking at come from? Who transfered the data from that file folder in his filing cabinet behind the reception desk? An iPad is just a tool used by consumers to get at the finished product, and that product can be a magazine, a report, a presentation or a movie. All Apple has done, and I give them full credit for this, is to identify a market and come up with a slick, easy to use, end user device for people to use instead of carrying around a 3 ring binder, overhead projector slides, etc.

That's what happens, technology improves and opens the door for more inovation. Now Microsoft is taking a kick at the can with Windows 8, and Slate (forget about the version out now, its like the IBM PC Jr of the 1980's). What you will find is that going forward major companies will adopt on a limited basis Slates becuase of the underlying enterprise support they've already built, but it's going to take time. Most banks and governments are IBM/Microsoft clients and that's not going to change. My laptop uses Windows XP becaue of the cost and expense (labour) of certifying all of our applications to function under Vista, 7 and now 8. If you think a bank that has a hard time to justify moving from Windows XP to Vista/7/8 will toss everything out and port to Apple because some talking head wants to have an iMac at his or her desk, your crazy. Will they look at giving account managers an iPad to go out on sales calls, sure. But that same person is going to have to sign on to a WINTEL based laptop to get at any coroprate applications behind our firewalls.

 

[WinterHawk]

agree with winterhawk on tablet can't do real work, but desktop has to go man. a laptop is still the ideal computing device - you can do real work and has the mobility. tablet really has no real advantage on laptop except for you can tap onscreen keyboard while standing or walking, which you shouldn't really be doing anyway.

I haven't used a desktop machine since 2001, just IBM Thinkpads and now Lenovos. I do like the idea of represented by Microsofts Slate and the Asus Transformer. Allowing a machine to be a laptop when your need that keyboard or a tablet when you want to just have a presentation device where you are consuming content (reports, emails, presentations, movies, etc...)

Apple will make limited head way in corporations for end user applications, but not for anything that sits behind our corporate firewalls and the cost of supporting multiple OS environments can not be justified.

Now for home use I just bought an Intel i7 machine with the lastest board from Asus and I'm running Windows 8 and so far so good. All of my applications run successfully unders Windows 8. Never considered replacing my old PC with an iMac, don't see the need in spending thousands more in replacing all of my software, if an Apple version even exists.

I think people who are buying a using iPads are doing so because they want be sitting on their couch or on the GO Train with a large iPhone than with a laptop weighting twice as much. Now Apple needs to be worried about Goolge taking it's Android platform seriously and providing support to both developers and hardware suppliers. To add to Apples woes, it's going to have to go toe to toe with Microsoft and evern more hardware vendors. Windows 8 already supports the software I have and I can port it over to a Windows 8 tablet easily.

 

[benstt]

I'm afraid you're not getting the picture. You're just pointing out that an iPad is becoming the device which is replacing PAPER. So instead of a doctor taking out his pen and completing a form in triplicate, he's now going to his iPad and ticking a box? You're using something like that to say that Microsoft is doomed because an iPad is easier, sexier to carry around than a binder, a pad of paper and a couple of coloured pens?

This is a fair point, but keep in mind that even within companies, there are consumers and producers. There will be some that are almost entirely consumers - executives - and others that have to produce the data, maintain the systems etc. Many will likely end up with a hybrid need, which is why laptops are so popular. As the capabilities of tablets to be used by producers changes, they might end up being the exclusive device for more and more workers who both consume and produce. Many will likely have two devices, just for the light weight tablet factor and coolness. We'll see.

As for your mainframe rants, get with the modern age. The mainframe hardware is not special at all anymore (throughput, my ass) they use the same chips in other server lines. The only thing keeping it in place is the sheer cost of re-writing millions of lines of functional programming crap (ie spaghetti code and databases) into modern object-oriented methods, service-enabled, etc. The banks are salivating to find some way to do this economically, and will chip away at the mainframe code base piece by piece.

I say "throughput my ass", because the retail banking systems are a throughput joke compared to capital markets. Try handling the options OPRA feed in high frequency trading, which was being sized for 10 Million messages per second.

Here's a nickel kid, get yourself a better computer.

http://static.flickr.com/87/240803829_9212773615_o.png

 

[nottyboi]

Nokia has launched a Windows 8 phone that sells for $240 with no contract. You can BET there are some serious MSFT $$ behind this. I think Balmers nightmare could also be Apples nightmare. MSFT has a LOT of cash, and they will buy marketshare at everyones expense.

 

[onthebottom]

CHART OF THE DAY: The Collapse Of Microsoft's Monopoly

As recently as eight years ago, Microsoft had a monopoly on the internet connected computers of the world. Today, not so much.

This chart comes from Goldman Sachs, and it shows Microsoft losing its market dominance of computing devices as smartphones and tablets have come into the market.

It's cliched at this point to say Microsoft whiffed on mobile, but a chart like this really puts into context. Microsoft went from 95% of the internet-connected market to 20% in an eight year span. It's going to get better thanks to Windows Phone and Windows 8, says Goldman, but only just barely.

Microsoft's inability to make a smartphone people really love could be a deadly mistake. As people became comfortable with the iPhone, they became open to the idea of the iPad. As the iPad takes off, it is slowing PC sales. As people become comfortable with the iPad, they're going to be more inclined to buy a Mac to stay in Apple's ecosystem.

But what about corporations, you might say. Well, Goldman says that in 2000, 60% of computing purchases were from corporations. Today, it's only 15%. That means Microsoft has to fight for consumer sales, which is not its strength.

 

[George The Curious]

on the bottom, In that chart... What happened between 2004 and 2005? Why did the "other" suddenly appear? I suspect they included "Other" with the Microsoft before 2005.

 

[onthebottom]

on the bottom, In that chart... What happened between 2004 and 2005? Why did the "other" suddenly appear? I suspect they included "Other" with the Microsoft before 2005.

It's a good question, wonder if its simbian and RIM.... But the uptake is too sharp...

 

[Max Webster]

I LOVE my windows phone. I could never go back to boring old IOS. If I had to might be able to do android or even BB10 looks interesting. But IOS is like watching paint dry. The OS itself does nothing from the start screen. Static Icons! Quaint but boring!

 

[checks]

WinterHawk, please don't bother onthebottom with actual facts. Apple fanbois can't be convinced by facts.

 

[goodguy1977]

I think we have different perspectives on which market we are talking about. I think winterhawk is looking at it more from a hard core techie would. I think you'd prefer Linux over Windows, however from the consumer market Microsift and Intel are really starting to feel the pinch. With Windows 8 coming out, a part of the windows consumer previously resisted switching to Macs due to the learning curve of a new OS. Windows 8 might actually lose market share for Microsoft.

As for Ballmer, they really need to get rid of him and the best thing would be to spin parts of the company out to rekindle innovation.

As for price targets, I'm not sure if our friend is fully informed of the full research reports available.

Goodguy

 

[George The Curious]

this is a good point. windows 8 tries to make computer look like a mobile device, which it is not. even apple does not make mac computers look like ipad.
msft fails to recognize this fact and will stump itself in the foot.

 

[WinterHawk]

this is a good point. windows 8 tries to make computer look like a mobile device, which it is not. even apple does not make mac computers look like ipad.
msft fails to recognize this fact and will stump itself in the foot.

No, Apple takes their phone and makes it bigger. An iPad is just a BIG iPhone, same operating system, same limitations.

I wouldn't count Microsoft out just yet. Microsoft has a business plan of identifing a market, making a stab at it, and continuingly improving there product until they are the last man standing.
For proof I offer these examples,
1 - Who still uses Netscape?
2 - Do you use Wordperfect to compose any of your letters to "Dear Penthouse..."?
3 - When was the last time you look up a Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet to do your taxes or maintain your books?
4 - OS/2, which I still have to use because of specialized hardware requirements

3 areas of business that those companies used to "OWN" and now where are they? Did you know that is a bit of lore regarding Microsoft that they used to sing a little ditty "Window's ain't done until Lotus won't run...".

Will the markets change, of course. But the way I see it we are all witnessing market expansion. I own an iPhone4 (Apple), I have a Asus Transformer (Google) and Cooler Master HAF 932 Advanced, Asus P9X79 DELUXE Desktop Motherboard - Intel X79 Express Chipset - Socket LGA-2011, with a Intel Core i7-3820 3.6Ghz L3 10M Cache Quad Core 130W LGA 2011 Processor; running Windows 8. So instead of me having just 1 device, I have 3; where to I fit in any of these studies? I use my iPhone for make phone calls, to text, to play games and I use it as my GPS. My Transformer is for reading or browseing the web when I don't feel like being infront my WinTel machine. I have an Asus EzzPC box attached to my big screen TV and I've upgraded the OS on that machine to Windows 8 also.

I'm thinking of buying a Slate once the Pro version comes out because it will replace the Asus Transformer and be able to do all of the things I can do on my tower machine when I'm on the GO Train or in my office so I don't surf the next on my company laptop. I could have easily bought the iPhone5 or a new iPad but neither machine offers me any benefits for the costs involved. As for Windows not being for a tablet environment, I can't speak to that becuase I don't have a Windows 8 based tablet device; but given that I use all of the machines I have, I get the most use out of my Window's based devices. I would repace my iPhone with a Windows based phone tomorrow if it came with a 3rd party GPS software like my old HP iPaq did with TomTom for Windows. Hell, for all I know, it may still work?

 

[goodguy1977]

Hello my friend,

I think you misunderstand what I am trying to get at. I understand and respect your technical knowledge, I am sure you could take a Linux OS and make it do some wicked things with it but let's put it this way. Take a look at some friends or family who are not hard core techies, take a look at their mobile and tablet needs. Is msft running any of them? Ask 10 people, check the ratio, now model these results into a business scenerio.

Like I said MSFT isn't going to 0, but they are definately going the way of the early 90s IBM.

As for those businesses you talked about, Gates was running the show back then. And really they just tied it to windows and gave it away for free, brilliant business strategy but a litte on the grey side on legality. (For the record I am a big fan of Gates and history shows he kicked Jobs ass when he wanted to)

Also, which search engine do you use? Bing or another starting with a G?

Goodguy

 

[WinterHawk]

I use both Google and Bing, but mostly Google as its just become natural. Like how some people feel naked forgetting to wear a watch.

 

[goodguy1977]

I use both Google and Bing, but mostly Google as its just become natural. Like how some people feel naked forgetting to wear a watch.

That's the difference between the Gates led Msft and Ballmer led Msft. They have poured a ton of cash into bing and still no results. Zune, nothing... Xbox is growing but the popularity of the game "apps" on Itunes and Android markets put a cap on that market.

Microsoft is just not the same as it once was.

Goodguy

 

[onthebottom]

You've got to be kidding me? Leapfrogging ahead, the only thing that Asia is leapfrogging a head of is in Outsourcing. It's us "OLD GUYS" who have 30 plus years that have seen all of the promises come and go, I worked for IBM when they announced the IBM PC, I worked on some of the first PC's that were used by TD Bank, and helped introduce OS/2 and Windows to CIBC. I watched people come in with bright ideas that they could replace "our backward systems" with networks of PC's doing "the same work" for free as the cycles on the individual PC's didn't have to be paid for once you bought the PC. The VP in charge of providing Payroll services to over 6,000 clients of the CIBC decided to fund a project that would migrate our mainframe legacy system off the "costly" Host to this network of PC's that would do the transactions for penny's on the dollar. Now Payroll was a money maker for the CIBC, it was STABLE, RELIABLE and rarely experienced a problem while being exeucted on the mainframe under COBOL.

Well they moved everything off the mainframe to groups of PC's, because according to the talking heads, this was the wave of the future. Guess what? CIBC no longer processes payrolls anymore, they sold their business off at a LOSS and sacked the VP who pushed for this transistion. Why might you ask? Because they didn't do a proper study of how much it actually costs to run in an Mainframe environment vs a whole bunch of PC's, it turned out that it used to cost us 6 cents per transaction to process Payroll, vs $6 on the PC. Same payrolls going in, but the systems weren't as reliable, not as fast and when a problem did happen, they didn't have an easy way of detecting that an error had occurred nor a quick way to fix it before it impacted the customer.

I have worked on Mainframes, PC's, Servers, Unix, Linx, Windows, OS/2, Sybase and Oracle, etc... So I do know for which I speak. For push large volumes of Data quickly and with very little down time, NOTHING BEATS A MAINFRAME. And in case you didn't known, "Mainframes" now run on Servers via emulation software. The KEY to the Legacy systems that run on these machines is that the technology is test, tried and true. I can pick up an IBM Manual and from the code generated by the OS, I can tell exactly what is happening, if it fails, why it fails and how to fix it. As for the Mainframe it self, I can not recall a time whenever we have lost a box, they are that reliable.

Now talking servers, you have some many vendors supplying bits and peices, trying to get you to adopt their solutions that simply can not handle the data volumes or time lines to get completed work out the door. Do you have any idea of how complex it is to try and monitor thousands of servers and the less than usless automated alerts that get generated, the amount of cycles consumed by the alerts alone can cause some systems to crash. There are very few vendors that can provide the level of uptime that IBM does on it's Big Iron. When was the last time you herd of a Virus taking our one of my dinosaurs? How many times a month do you have to apply patches to a server because of possible security holes? Serves can fail for countless reasons from power blips, cooling issues, dust or some part just burns out and no one may know for hours because the automated alert gets lost in the background noise of all of the other status message.

One of the issues I have to deal with is the fact that software vendors go out of business and we're left with software we can't upgrade or fix, or that the vendor has decided not to support and instead expects you to migrate to yet another buggy solution and cause us milions of dollars in have to retest everything.

I know for a fact that some of the code I wrote 30 years ago is still running today at TD Bank because it does what they wanted, simply, effectively, cheaply.

The technology you're talking about being developed in Europe and Asia is for end users, with lower volumes and less complex than some of the sytems I've built over the years. I took a system that was supposed to run on a group of servers that we need a data trunaround of 8 hours to meet needs of the bank branch reporting requriements while at CIBC. Running the system like the Vendor had suggested but with our NATIONAL volumes would take it 22 days to process of 24/7 processing. I took their "solution", ported it to our Mainframe using their code and reworked both their code and job streams to have the work done in on average 6.5 hours because mainframes are built to handle large volumes of data.

The company I'm working for now had engaged one of Europes top software vendors to come in and rework our control software to handle printing volume of millions of statements we generate on behalf of our clients daily, they made a ton of promises that they could do it and after 2 years, gave up and paid us one hell of the fine to get out of the deal as their software just couldn't do as advertised.

And this, folks, is why the FSI industry is still a dinosaur IT industry, old guys tied to outdated technology that only runs in a handful of industries (airlines, FSI....) every other industry has moved to more modern technology that doesn't require some guy in his 60s to maintain code he wrote 30 years ago. All of the banks together don't have as many transactions as amazon does in a day..... do you suppose they run mainframes? How about Google?

Interesting Wiki on who owns a mainframe - see all the FSI companies: http://mainframes.wikidot.com/

European and Asian bankers are moving to more open based core banking systems, this is simply a fact, here is a Celent study on this market: http://celent.com/reports/snapshot-global-core-banking-market-0

IT spending by APac banks is suppressing that by NA banks.... that's a fact.

It took Bank of America more than A YEAR to implement what is seen as the most innovated retail banking product (an oxymoron in itself), the keep the change product rounds up a debt transaction to the nearest dollar and makes a savings deposit on the balance.... incredibly simple transaction that took more than A YEAR to implement in the dinosaur technology.

 

[onthebottom]

I'm afraid you're not getting the picture. You're just pointing out that an iPad is becoming the device which is replacing PAPER. So instead of a doctor taking out his pen and completing a form in triplicate, he's now going to his iPad and ticking a box? You're using something like that to say that Microsoft is doomed because an iPad is easier, sexier to carry around than a binder, a pad of paper and a couple of coloured pens?

I used to have to documents my system changes using preprinted forms, a 3 ring binder, an IBM Selectric Typerwriter and some whiteout for mistakes. Then I moved on to an IBM Document writer. Now I use Word for Windows and Outlook for email, storing my documentation electronically in Sharepoint. Tell me, where does that form the doctor is looking at come from? Who transfered the data from that file folder in his filing cabinet behind the reception desk? An iPad is just a tool used by consumers to get at the finished product, and that product can be a magazine, a report, a presentation or a movie. All Apple has done, and I give them full credit for this, is to identify a market and come up with a slick, easy to use, end user device for people to use instead of carrying around a 3 ring binder, overhead projector slides, etc.

That's what happens, technology improves and opens the door for more inovation. Now Microsoft is taking a kick at the can with Windows 8, and Slate (forget about the version out now, its like the IBM PC Jr of the 1980's). What you will find is that going forward major companies will adopt on a limited basis Slates becuase of the underlying enterprise support they've already built, but it's going to take time. Most banks and governments are IBM/Microsoft clients and that's not going to change. My laptop uses Windows XP becaue of the cost and expense (labour) of certifying all of our applications to function under Vista, 7 and now 8. If you think a bank that has a hard time to justify moving from Windows XP to Vista/7/8 will toss everything out and port to Apple because some talking head wants to have an iMac at his or her desk, your crazy. Will they look at giving account managers an iPad to go out on sales calls, sure. But that same person is going to have to sign on to a WINTEL based laptop to get at any coroprate applications behind our firewalls.

I get the picture, the end user is often left out of IT spend because so much of it is spent turning the old rusty crank. What tablets and BYOD are bringing to the enterprise is innovation a the end user layer - yes, Medicine is a paper based industry (as is legal, and FSI), so automating data entry and information delivery is a big step even though it sounds simple. Airline pilots are replacing the racks of manuals they carry with tablets, sales people are replacing catalogs with tablets, even bankers are replacing their selling tools with tablets...

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

M$ will make a fortune with Office on iOS....

 

[George The Curious]

I remember reading somewhere, all the major computer manufacturers are rushing towards tablet / mobile market because tablets are much higher profit margin compared to laptop / netbooks, even though both types are in similar price range. You are getting more for your money buying a laptop / netbook, and they can do much more than tablets, and faster.

 

[onthebottom]

Interesting play by Google here... perhaps it's predatory (no need to feed a competitor) or simply based on adoption (Google will wait until M$ get's enough ad eyes to make developing for the platform worthwhile) or both....

OTB

Looking for that Google app for your Windows Phone? Don't hold your breath

If you're holding your breath for some more official apps from Google for Windows Phone or Windows 8, you stop trying now. A Google product manager has gone on record saying the Mountain View company has no plans to develop its application for Microsoft's competing operating system. The reason may surprise you.

So Google isn't actively developing for Windows Phone or Windows 8 because it just doesn't see the market for it yet. Speaking with tech site V3, Clay Bavor went on record saying:

"We have no plans to build out Windows apps. We are very careful about where we invest and will go where the users are but they are not on Windows Phone or Windows 8. If that changes, we would invest there, of course."

While there aren't any current plans to bring popular services like YouTube or Google Talk to Windows Phone or Windows 8, there could be hope for both platforms as they gain market share.

Thankfully, Windows Phone so far has some great 3rd party developer support to fill the void in the meantime. Apps like MetroTube really set the bar high and it's hard to imagine what Google could do different for it's own YouTube client or MetroTalk for a Google Voice replacement.

Any services from Google you're really missing on either Windows 8 or Windows Phone? Favorite 3rd party alternatives?

http://www.wpcentral.com/google-has-no-plans-windows-phone-or-windows-8?style_mobile=0