On stupidity and war

danmand

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Nov 28, 2003
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This is the most insightful article I have seen about Isarael and Gaza so far.



On stupidity and war

Israel is a fast learner, but did it learn the most valuable lesson of all?
Last updated: 23 Jul 2014 15:43


Marwan Bishara

Marwan Bishara is the senior political analyst at Al Jazeera.



The war hasn't ended and already the criticism over Israel's military adventure in Gaza is mounting as the Islamist movement, Hamas, continues to surprise the "invaders".

Leading and, presumably, respected media commentators have blamed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his hastiness, Israel's Security Service - the Shabak - for its ignorance and the military for its poor performance.

Israel might claim technological superiority and tactical victory, but, as one expert concluded, strategically, it's been defeated.

Needless to say, there are many ways by which one takes stock of the ongoing war. But after three military adventures in six years, Hamas remains a formidable force in Palestine. And Israel has little to show for its military prowess and technological edge aside from the terrible devastation wrought across the Gaza Strip - home to 1.8 million Palestinians living impoverished lives in the world's longest-standing refugee camp.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has boasted of Israel's moral standing and condemned Hamas for targeting civilians. But in the last few days, it's the Israeli military that has suffered hundreds of casualties, including 29 soldiers killed, thus far. While on the Palestinian side, Israel's bombings led to thousands of civilian casualties. It takes chutzpah to take pride in such a dreadful record.

At any rate, if it doesn't cool down its aggression on the population of Gaza, Israel might increasingly face another uprising in the West Bank as the Palestinians open another front against their occupiers. And if the early indicators are anything to go by, it shows signs of turning violent and bloody.

Israel, a fast learner

It's smart to learn from one's own mistakes; wise to learn from others' mistakes. What lessons has Netanyahu learnt, if any?

There is no doubt that Israel is a quick learner. It learned much from its own operational and even strategic mistakes in past wars, and no less, from the war experiences of other nations.




The last century witnessed countless wars, including civil wars, proxy wars, wars driven by nationalism, racism and greed, and two destructive world wars.

Israel has had its share of these wars - 14 in six decades - and the Middle East region that makes up some five percent of the world population, accounts for 20 percent of its conflicts; a percentage that probably skyrocketed in recent years.

Their motivations varied, but self-defence has generally been the excuse for aggression. Underlining its lack of strategic depth, Israel has long boasted of its pre-emptive doctrine to hit first when needing to defend itself.

Israel has also relied on the United States for lessons of war. And in recent times, it taught its patron a few lessons it's learned itself in Lebanon and Palestine, for fighting in Iraq - a reason why the Israelis were stunned this week to hear former Secretary of State Madeline Albright speak of Israel's "disproportionate" military response in Gaza, when she justified the US blockade on Iraq even when it led to the death of half a million children.

Israel is hardly the first to invoke self-defence to justify aggression - Lebanon being the best example - or protecting civilians to kill civilians. It has learnt the art of victimhood like no other. Its ultimate chutzpah goes along the lines of: "We won't forgive you for forcing us to kill you."

So yes, Israel has learned many lessons, and has institutionalised these lessons and is making money out of these lessons through training other nations' military and security forces. Indeed, Israel arms sales have rocketed to $7.5bn in 2012, arms that are war-tested, as Israel so frequently vaunts.

But the more important question is: Has Israel learnt the most important lesson of all about its type of colonial asymmetrical wars?

The predictable war

Unlike conventional wars, the longest and most legitimate wars of all have been the people's fight for independence from colonialism.

Israel is in the midst of such a fight against a people's struggle for freedom and independence and it makes similar, if not identical claims, to those made by other colonial powers of the past.

But not one foreign power big or small was able to win a single asymmetrical war against a people resisting colonialism throughout the entire 20th century.

This definite and paradoxical conclusion - the most instructive, and yet ignored of all lessons of war is categorical: Not one great power possessing superior firepower has won against a weaker, less organised and less professional resistance against occupation.

Not the French, not the English, not the Belgians, the Dutch, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Italians, the Soviets, the Chinese, the Afrikaners, etc. Not one! In the end, they all lose. And if they don't, then it's not the end.








INTERACTIVE: Gaza Under Attack




In each and every case, the indigenous population was designated terrorist, or fanatic, extremist, destructive, insensitive, or all of the above when they stood up to their occupier. Similar if not identical to the stuff we hear from Israelis nowadays.

Yet, despite all their military domination, political mechanisation, and superior moral pretentions, they eventually lose the battle of wills and are compelled to leave - defeated or humiliated.

While there are exceptions, such as in the case of India, the cost is generally high in death and destruction especially for those at the receiving end of aggression. But don't depend on those who can keep a record to do so for their victims.

During the Algerian war for independence that lasted a decade, almost 30,000 Frenchmen, and we are told half a million to a million Algerians, were killed - give or take a couple of hundred thousand deaths.

Like today's Israel, those colonial powers also justified their wars as last resort, and explained the high casualties as "War sucks", "We've got to do whatever we need to protect ourselves", or "The terrorists are hiding among the population", and "using them as human shields" etc.

And so the fog of war and propaganda continues to blur the lines between right and wrong, occupied from occupier, defence and aggression. But when the dust settles, Israel will find itself where it was before its latest and past adventures, but with weaker deterrence, less credibility and hardened enemies.

Yes, it could continue to justify its military adventures under the pretext of combating terrorists, destroying rocket-launchers and tunnels. But whatever its justifications, these are the by-products of its own colonialism and war.

In the final analysis, if Israel doesn't start packing and leaving the occupied territories sooner, many Israelis will start leaving it later because conditions are bound to get much worse.

Late is better than never learning the primary lesson from this conflict: It's the occupation, stupid.

Marwan Bishara is the senior political analyst at Al Jazeera.
 
This definite and paradoxical conclusion - the most instructive, and yet ignored of all lessons of war is categorical: Not one great power possessing superior firepower has won against a weaker, less organised and less professional resistance against occupation.

Not the French, not the English, not the Belgians, the Dutch, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Italians, the Soviets, the Chinese, the Afrikaners, etc. Not one! In the end, they all lose. And if they don't, then it's not the end.



This is exactly the point, odd no one sees it.

To be fair, we nor the French saw it in Vietnam, the Brits didn't see it (several times)... Perhaps this is a lesson you can't learn if you are in the middle of it.
 
This definite and paradoxical conclusion - the most instructive, and yet ignored of all lessons of war is categorical: Not one great power possessing superior firepower has won against a weaker, less organised and less professional resistance against occupation.

Not the French, not the English, not the Belgians, the Dutch, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Italians, the Soviets, the Chinese, the Afrikaners, etc. Not one! In the end, they all lose. And if they don't, then it's not the end.



This is exactly the point, odd no one sees it.

To be fair, we nor the French saw it in Vietnam, the Brits didn't see it (several times)... Perhaps this is a lesson you can't learn if you are in the middle of it.

The Israelis don't have to win, merely manage the situation until the Palestinians come around to accepting a two state peace. A messy temporary solution but their only other option is to pack up and abandon their country.
 
The Israelis don't have to win, merely manage the situation until the Palestinians come around to accepting a two state peace. A messy temporary solution but their only other option is to pack up and abandon their country.

That's about as likely as the North Vietnamese accepting a divided country. I think you were the source of the 60% of Palistinians was Isreal gone in 5 years, I'd bet that number is up in the last week.
 
Perhaps Al Jazeera might tell us what lessons the Arab World and in particular the Emir of Qatar have learned.
 
The Israelis don't have to win, merely manage the situation until the Palestinians come around to accepting a two state peace. A messy temporary solution but their only other option is to pack up and abandon their country.

This. It has been successfully managed for 47 years, there is no reason to think it cannot be managed for another 47 years.

Israel is not trying to take over the territory, simply limit threats from it, which is very different than, say, the US goals in Vietnam.
 
This. It has been successfully managed for 47 years, there is no reason to think it cannot be managed for another 47 years.

Israel is not trying to take over the territory, simply limit threats from it, which is very different than, say, the US goals in Vietnam.

You're kidding yourself, how many Palistinians will there be in Isreal in 47 years?
 
A minority.

Do the math, show your work. A woman in Gaza has her first child (on average) at 19 and has 4.25 children. 40% of Gaza is 14 or younger...
 
Do the math, show your work. A woman in Gaza has her first child (on average) at 19 and has 4.25 children. 40% of Gaza is 14 or younger...

Gaza isn't Israel. In Israel the Palestinians are more prosperous and their birth rates are slowing down like everybody else who is prosperous.
 
This definite and paradoxical conclusion - the most instructive, and yet ignored of all lessons of war is categorical: Not one great power possessing superior firepower has won against a weaker, less organised and less professional resistance against occupation.

Not the French, not the English, not the Belgians, the Dutch, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Italians, the Soviets, the Chinese, the Afrikaners, etc. Not one! In the end, they all lose. And if they don't, then it's not the end.





This is exactly the point, odd no one sees it.

To be fair, we nor the French saw it in Vietnam, the Brits didn't see it (several times)... Perhaps this is a lesson you can't learn if you are in the middle of it.


That is not the point at all. The point is that after suffering and unrelenting rain of rockets aimed at is civilian population centers (not to mention the myriad tunnels) doing nothing was not an option.

You still haven't told us what you would have done.
 
According to Sun Tzu's art of war a properly motivated force can overcome superior numbers and weapons. Sun Tzu himself atleast on one occasion, purposefully put his force in a position where their backs were against a wall and fighting a much larger army, Sun Tzu won. Mind you though, if Sun Tzu did the same against modern weaponry, he would have been toast.

The examples in the article are instances where the invader/attacker was far away and the victim had no means to strike back outside of their own territory, that is to say that the attacker/invader could cut and run at anytime and their life/family/homeland is still safe from harm.

Israel and Palestine is a different matter, both sides believe it is life or death, and they are right next to each other.
 
Gaza isn't Israel. In Israel the Palestinians are more prosperous and their birth rates are slowing down like everybody else who is prosperous.

It along with the West Bank are occupied territories, if Israel can't negotiate a two state deal (which they desperately need) there will be one state, soon with an Arab majority.

As I said, Bibi is the one with a problem.
 
It along with the West Bank are occupied territories, if Israel can't negotiate a two state deal (which they desperately need) there will be one state, soon with an Arab majority.

As I said, Bibi is the one with a problem.

There will never be one state because the Israelis have no interest in it. It takes 2 to negotiate and Abbas made it clear before the negotiations began they he would not negotiate less than 100% of what he demanded, including the so called right of return which will NEVER be agreeable. Bibi on the other hand is intransigent on security issues with which he is obsessed and Hamas keeps reinforcing his fears and proving him correct to the Israeli electorate.

While you may be right about the demographic time bomb (of which i am somewhat skeptical) in the meantime you seem to be content to assign the Palestinians to a life without their own state while they are waiting. Very sad outcome. I agree that at some point the leaders on both sides must make very hard compromises. At present with Hamas in power on Gaza that does not seem possible for either Abbas and Bibi. By the way did you notice that Abbas had his family leave the West Bank? Not because he is afraid of Israel. he is concerned about their safety from his own people.
 
It along with the West Bank are occupied territories, if Israel can't negotiate a two state deal (which they desperately need) there will be one state, soon with an Arab majority.

As I said, Bibi is the one with a problem.

Camelshit.

It is just ludicrous propaganda to believe they will every be one state. Israelis do not want that and will never vote for it and no magic giant is going to force them into one state.

Much more likely that Gaza is annexed by Egypt and the West Bank by Jordan than that they are ever annexed by Israel.

In addition to it being a political impossibility in Israel there are multiple UN resolutions asserting that territory is not Israel.
 
There will never be one state because the Israelis have no interest in it. It takes 2 to negotiate and Abbas made it clear before the negotiations began they he would not negotiate less than 100% of what he demanded, including the so called right of return which will NEVER be agreeable. Bibi on the other hand is intransigent on security issues with which he is obsessed and Hamas keeps reinforcing his fears and proving him correct to the Israeli electorate.

While you may be right about the demographic time bomb (of which i am somewhat skeptical) in the meantime you seem to be content to assign the Palestinians to a life without their own state while they are waiting. Very sad outcome. I agree that at some point the leaders on both sides must make very hard compromises. At present with Hamas in power on Gaza that does not seem possible for either Abbas and Bibi. By the way did you notice that Abbas had his family leave the West Bank? Not because he is afraid of Israel. he is concerned about their safety from his own people.

Rabin would tell Abbas that's a good idea if he could.

If Isreal can't negotiate a two state solution then it will be one state. Right of return is huge, hard to argue you can run someone off their land, steal their land and the peace settlement doesn't involve them being able to go home...

Fuji is quite happy (as apparently are others) to keep the current devastating poverty and violence going indefinitely as long as this serves the Jewish interests. I don't think of it as a demographic bomb, I think landslide is better, I'm sure Qutar would help fund Arab mothers having 10 kids, how long would it take?
 
Camelshit.

It is just ludicrous propaganda to believe they will every be one state. Israelis do not want that and will never vote for it and no magic giant is going to force them into one state.

Much more likely that Gaza is annexed by Egypt and the West Bank by Jordan than that they are ever annexed by Israel.

In addition to it being a political impossibility in Israel there are multiple UN resolutions asserting that territory is not Israel.

I can think of one magic giant that would only need abstain.... The UN (you remember them, that's the peg Isreal hangs on). That magic giant just did a $23b arms deal with Qutar....
 
If Isreal can't negotiate a two state solution then it will be one state.

Says who?

Right of return is huge, hard to argue you can run someone off their land, steal their land and the peace settlement doesn't involve them being able to go home...

There are only a few thousand people like that still alive and they remain at war with Israel.

The idea of some right of Israeli immigration for the foreign born descendants of refugees is Palestinian fiction. There is nothing in Israeli law to support any such immigration claim and absolutely nothing in international law granting citizenship in the country of people's ancestors.

Most Americans are not EU citizens just because their ancestors are from Europe.

You are just repeating Palestinian propaganda that has no basis in reality or law, and Israel will never agree to it.
 
I can think of one magic giant that would only need abstain.... The UN (you remember them, that's the peg Isreal hangs on). That magic giant just did a $23b arms deal with Qutar....

Did it include nuclear weapons?

There is never going to be another big Arab Israeli war. If you think Arab nations are going to invade Israel and force a one state solution you are completely crazy.

Moreover the big giant didn't sell arms to Israel so much as it outsourced their production to Israel. The key weapons factories that supply IDF are in Israel. The deals between Israel and the US transfer technology and production, not weapons.
 
Says who?



There are only a few thousand people like that still alive and they remain at war with Israel.

The idea of some right of Israeli immigration for the foreign born descendants of refugees is Palestinian fiction. There is nothing in Israeli law to support any such immigration claim and absolutely nothing in international law granting citizenship in the country of people's ancestors.

Most Americans are not EU citizens just because their ancestors are from Europe.

You are just repeating Palestinian propaganda that has no basis in reality or law, and Israel will never agree to it.

Do you realize how hillarious that is coming from a Zionist?