So you consider the 8% drop last year as insignificant on top of the previous year over year decreases?
Correct. There were bigger drops in the crime rate in the 1990's in the years BEFORE New York implements its tough gun control measures. The crime rate had been dropping consistently BEFORE the measures went into place, and it has continued to drop since then--but the biggest drops in crime happened in the earlier years.
The data does not show ANY impact of the gun policy on crime.
Saying "oh but look it went down, 8% last year!" is just silly when it was already going down before the act came into force.
As you use the term "most likely" it means you are merely speculating/guessing. No proof.
And you have proof that gun policy in New York has had any impact on crime? You have the same information I have, and you've presented no more detailed argument. You've said, "oh look, crime went down in New York, it must be because of gun policy" but you have NO PROOF of that, and I've given you a more credible explanation--my explanation is better, because yours cannot possibly explain how crime went down before the law came into effect, when the biggest drops occurred.
You won't find anyone, not even the most hardened academic, who claims they can prove ANY such thing, as all we have are correlations in statistics, which never actually prove causation.
But it does seem reasonable to think that crime has been dropping in New York since the 1980's for two primary reasons:
1. Gentrification has forced the poor people out of the city, and it's typically the poor who commit crimes, and
2. The crack epidemic in New York hits its peak in the late 1980's, and crime fell dramatically as the number of people using crack declined
There are also Rudy Guiliani fans who believe he should get all the credit because of his "broken windows" policy policy which, if you bother to google it, has been the most popular explanation for the drop in crime in New York in the press.
I'll take Bloomberg's reasoning over yours. It is multifactorial and gun control is a significant contributor.
Of course you will, you'll take any piece of nonsense you agree with, no matter how unable to explain the facts it is--facts like the larger drops in crime that occurred before it went into effect.