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NRA reasoning

cunning linguist

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The same way I justify a private citizen owning something like this:


But FYI, that weapon you posted is already heavily regulated and wasn't the same weapon used in any of the recent shootings.
 

nottyboi

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The same way I justify a private citizen owning something like this:


But FYI, that weapon you posted is already heavily regulated and wasn't the same weapon used in any of the recent shootings.

It's an AR-15 easily modified to fire on full auto with a 150 round drum magazine.. which as far as I know is not regulated in many US states. It is pretty difficult to use the 200 MPH car to kill lots of people even if that was your intent. It would be hard to do much more damage with it then a Honda Civic...please show me where a lunatic has conducted a mass killing with a Corvette.. lol Also the ZR1 costs 112K. The AR 15 costs around 1K and the 150 round drum just under 1K, add $100 in Ammo and you are ready to send 150 rounds of mayhem on the way.
 

fuji

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So you consider the 8% drop last year as insignificant on top of the previous year over year decreases?
Correct. There were bigger drops in the crime rate in the 1990's in the years BEFORE New York implements its tough gun control measures. The crime rate had been dropping consistently BEFORE the measures went into place, and it has continued to drop since then--but the biggest drops in crime happened in the earlier years.

The data does not show ANY impact of the gun policy on crime.

Saying "oh but look it went down, 8% last year!" is just silly when it was already going down before the act came into force.

As you use the term "most likely" it means you are merely speculating/guessing. No proof.
And you have proof that gun policy in New York has had any impact on crime? You have the same information I have, and you've presented no more detailed argument. You've said, "oh look, crime went down in New York, it must be because of gun policy" but you have NO PROOF of that, and I've given you a more credible explanation--my explanation is better, because yours cannot possibly explain how crime went down before the law came into effect, when the biggest drops occurred.

You won't find anyone, not even the most hardened academic, who claims they can prove ANY such thing, as all we have are correlations in statistics, which never actually prove causation.

But it does seem reasonable to think that crime has been dropping in New York since the 1980's for two primary reasons:

1. Gentrification has forced the poor people out of the city, and it's typically the poor who commit crimes, and

2. The crack epidemic in New York hits its peak in the late 1980's, and crime fell dramatically as the number of people using crack declined

There are also Rudy Guiliani fans who believe he should get all the credit because of his "broken windows" policy policy which, if you bother to google it, has been the most popular explanation for the drop in crime in New York in the press.

I'll take Bloomberg's reasoning over yours. It is multifactorial and gun control is a significant contributor.
Of course you will, you'll take any piece of nonsense you agree with, no matter how unable to explain the facts it is--facts like the larger drops in crime that occurred before it went into effect.
 

fuji

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New york crime rate dropped the same reason it dropped everywhere in the US, abortion, aging population and economic growth.
This is more or less true, but in New York "economic growth" took on a different dimension than it did in most places. As the price of real estate in New York shot through the roof, developers bought people out of low income housing and slums, and rebuilt it into pricey housing for rich people. This forced the poor out of the city, and as the poor left the city, crime dropped. It turns out that a stock broker earning $800k per year is much less likely to commit violent crime than an unemployed highschool dropout (though you could argue that Bernie Madoff did more harm).
 

WoodPeckr

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NRA Oxymoron Reasoning


^^^This IS how it used to be.......
 

fuji

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It's an AR-15 easily modified to fire on full auto with a 150 round drum magazine..
Sorry but it's not. If it were, it would be a prohibited weapon in Canada, by Order in Council. And trust me, if the RCMP were able to make that declaration they would. As it stands anyone with a PAL for restricted firearms can mail order an AR-15 from any of the gun dealers in Canada--and they almost all stock it. The RCMP must have concluded that the modification can only be performed by someone with the skills of a gun smith, using metalworking tools. In other words, beyond the capability of the typical private gun owner.
 

WoodPeckr

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NRA vision of AmeriKKKa!!!

 

shack

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Of course you will, you'll take any piece of nonsense you agree with, no matter how unable to explain the facts it is--facts like the larger drops in crime that occurred before it went into effect.
I'll believe Bloomberg's reasoning. If you don't, then it means you believe you know the workings of NYC better than a mayor who has been there over 10 years and has seen his policies achieve results. If you believe you know more than he, then you may have delusions of grandeur.
 

shack

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This is more or less true, but in New York "economic growth" took on a different dimension than it did in most places. As the price of real estate in New York shot through the roof, developers bought people out of low income housing and slums, and rebuilt it into pricey housing for rich people. This forced the poor out of the city, and as the poor left the city, crime dropped. It turns out that a stock broker earning $800k per year is much less likely to commit violent crime than an unemployed highschool dropout (though you could argue that Bernie Madoff did more harm).
And why would Bloomberg not want to take credit for this economic upturn and say he accomplished violence reduction by doing so and not by gun control policies?

He could proclaim himself a genius by using such a method. He is either too stupid to not see what you claim to or he doesn't believe that is the case.

Either way, you are claiming you know more about NYC than the mayor.
 

cunning linguist

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It's an AR-15 easily modified to fire on full auto with a 150 round drum magazine.. which as far as I know is not regulated in many US states. It is pretty difficult to use the 200 MPH car to kill lots of people even if that was your intent. It would be hard to do much more damage with it then a Honda Civic...please show me where a lunatic has conducted a mass killing with a Corvette.. lol Also the ZR1 costs 112K. The AR 15 costs around 1K and the 150 round drum just under 1K, add $100 in Ammo and you are ready to send 150 rounds of mayhem on the way.
Is it really an AR-15 or is that speculation, based on your observation of cosmetic similarities to an M4, which is actually already heavily regulated and a rare sight to see in private civilian collections? I'll guess the latter, AR-15s don't convert to fully automatic without either machining, gun smithing or use of regulated aftermarket parts. As for drum magazines, are you aware that they're notoriously unreliable? Reports from the Aurora shooting say that the shooter there had a drum magazine, which malfunctioned and forced the shooter to either reload or switch to another weapon.

Having an actual assault rifle, as in one that's legally capable of fully automatic fire, is an expensive affair in the United States; you're talking several thousand, just for the gun. Also, have you ever considered how expensive discharging 150 rounds in the span of 12 seconds, like in that YouTube video, is?

For woodpecker:

 

fuji

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I'll believe Bloomberg's reasoning. If you don't, then it means you believe you know the workings of NYC better than a mayor who has been there over 10 years and has seen his policies achieve results. If you believe you know more than he, then you may have delusions of grandeur.
I know the stats. I can show you the data, homicides per year in NYC. Easy to google.

Anyone with eyes to see can look and verify that the largest declines in the crime rate happened before NY state implemented the tough gun policies.

You are making an appeal to the authority of a politician in order to ignore the data. A politician who is fairly biased on this issue and who is contradicted by very clear and very public data.

Your reputation would fare better if you didn't ignore the obvious and easily verifiable facts.
 

shack

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Anyone with eyes to see can look and verify that the largest declines in the crime rate happened before NY state implemented the tough gun policies.
And with gun controls, the declines in violence have decreased even more. Even if it is a slower rate (which is to be expected anyways because it is not possible to maintain the previous rate) 8% is still a significant number.

Again, if Bloomberg claims his policies made the difference, I'll take his much more informed opinion over yours.

I haven't heard any claims from New Yorkers about him not knowing what he's talking about, as you are doing. Many people (not necessarily gun proponents) would want to know the proper cause(s) so as to continue the downward trend and not base it on false conclusions as you feel Bloomberg is doing. Where are the challenges from his constituency?
 

fuji

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And with gun controls, the declines in violence have decreased even more. Even if it is a slower rate (which is to be expected anyways because it is not possible to maintain the previous rate) 8% is still a significant number.
In other words, despite the facts being against you, you want to continue to make a claim that you can't possibly support, by citing a pro-gun-control politician and pretending that he is some sort of authority on criminology. Ludicrous. Should we also take Rob Ford's opinion as conclusive proof of whatever it is he believes? Rob Ford said it, so it must be true? How about McGuinty, or Harper? Or is Bloomberg somehow magical?

Indeed there have been many studies on why crime in New York is declining, and I have told you what they say: Gentrification and the end of the crack epidemic, with some saying they have evidence that the "broken windows" policing strategy provided additional benefit. There is no credible study out there that says gun policy had anything to do with it--there are blowhards who claim it, but not credible studies.

Why not just admit that you believe in these policies for religious reasons, and that you personally simply don't need to have facts to believe in it, don't need to have reasons, that your religious faith in gun control is enough?

No sane person would look at an ongoing process of a decline in crime and credit a policy enacted in the middle, that had no detectable impact on the rate of decline (and that's being charitable, in fact the rate slowed down--maybe it would have declined even more without the policy.)
 

shack

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In other words, despite the facts being against you, you want to continue to make a claim that you can't possibly support, by citing a pro-gun-control politician and pretending that he is some sort of authority on criminology. Ludicrous. Should we also take Rob Ford's opinion as conclusive proof of whatever it is he believes? Rob Ford said it, so it must be true? Or is Bloomberg somehow magical?


No sane person would look at an ongoing process of a decline in crime and credit a policy enacted in the middle, that had no detectable impact on the rate of decline (and that's being charitable, in fact the rate slowed down--maybe it would have declined even more without the policy.)
No rational person (non-resident to boot) would claim to know more about NYC than a very well-respected and creditable mayor (11 years so far?) like Bloomberg and needs to use Rob Ford? as an analogy. That looks like desperate measures to me.

Speaking of Ford, he obviously has detractors in his constituency. I still don't hear of significant such detractors from Bloomberg's constituents. For the most part his populace is proud of his accomplishments done for their betterment.

If there is a religion in this, it is the religion that prays to altar of the gun. Absolutely everything is on the table as causes except too many guns and every solution is on the table except more restrictions on the very instrument of death.
 

fuji

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Oh get off this insane claim that politicians have mystical magical powers that entitiles then to make claims that contradict the facts.

The data is clear. The facts are obvious to all who care to see. Crime started dropping before the policy, and the biggest improvements were before the policy. You have not provided any reason to think gun policy mattered at all.

And Rob Ford isn't an analogy, your basic claim is that the mayor of any city should be believed absolutely regardless of whether the facts contradict him. Ford is a mayor too, I am just applying your ludicrous conceit that politicians have magical powers.

You are on the ropes here shack, you gotta come out of your corner with better than "Bloomberg said so".
 

fun-guy

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Governor Cuomo wants stricter gun controls in New York State. He is pushing for tougher gun registration, a semi-automatic buy back program, stricter laws regarding bringing guns into schools, and limiting gun magazines to seven bullets, the toughest in the US. Details to follow in his State address next month.
http://gothamist.com/2012/12/26/cuomo_says_hes_pushing_for_even_str.php
 

fun-guy

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This is more or less true, but in New York "economic growth" took on a different dimension than it did in most places. As the price of real estate in New York shot through the roof, developers bought people out of low income housing and slums, and rebuilt it into pricey housing for rich people. This forced the poor out of the city, and as the poor left the city, crime dropped. It turns out that a stock broker earning $800k per year is much less likely to commit violent crime than an unemployed highschool dropout (though you could argue that Bernie Madoff did more harm).

Did developers buy out people from the Bronx, Harlem and Brooklyn and rebuild those areas into pricier housing for the rich, or are you talking about Manhattan? Most of the homicides are in Brooklyn. Harlem and the Bronx, with Brooklyn being the worst. Can't imagine developers rebuilding in these areas and more affluent people living there anytime soon.


http://projects.nytimes.com/crime/homicides/map

You will note from this map that homicides have been on the decline from 2006 to present and 69% of the homicides are due to firearms.
 

shack

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Oh get off this insane claim that politicians have mystical magical powers that entitiles then to make claims that contradict the facts.

You are on the ropes here shack, you gotta come out of your corner with better than "Bloomberg said so".
I am talking about one particular politician regarding one particular issue, not a general claim, or do none of them know anything at all about what they are talking about?

And again, I will say that Bloomberg knows more than you in regards to his city.
 

fuji

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Did developers buy out people from the Bronx, Harlem and Brooklyn
Yes, those areas are gentrifying, the lowest income bracket everywhere in New York is rising and the poorest have been increasingly moved further and further our. Certainly there are still poor areas, but nowhere near as many nor as poor s 30 years ago.

No point to reply to the rest of your post as it was based on the false premise that only Manhattan had gentrified.
 
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