I'll start with TNF : If D Henry gets hot and gets yardage on Dallas' defense, Titans could do a back door cover. I don't like laying ten points, I'd bet the expensive M/L here.
NFL Week 17 Locks !
- Thread starter LiveInTorontoPartyInMontreal
- Start date
49'ers -6 at the Raiders. 49'ers are gearing up for a deep playoff run and match up well against Las Vegas. I can hear the Raiders fans booing right now. This has money pick written all over it.
I like the way the Saints have been playing the past couple of weeks. I always thought that they were a better team than what their record indicates. They still have a chance at winning the division so I'm going to take them +6.5 at Eagles. Regardless of Hurts' injury status.
Commanders are at home and favored by 2.5 over the Browns. I like the home team here, despite their 2 game losing streak. Browns are 2-5 on the road and the Commanders do well vs. the run.
Despite their 9-6 record, looking at the Chargers it just seems that something isn't quite clicking with their offense. Herbert hasn't thrown a TD pass in the past two games. The Rams are playing simply for pride at this point and seem to have gotten a boost from the addition of Baker Mayfield. That's why I like them to at least cover the 6.5.
I like the way the Saints have been playing the past couple of weeks. I always thought that they were a better team than what their record indicates. They still have a chance at winning the division so I'm going to take them +6.5 at Eagles. Regardless of Hurts' injury status.
Commanders are at home and favored by 2.5 over the Browns. I like the home team here, despite their 2 game losing streak. Browns are 2-5 on the road and the Commanders do well vs. the run.
Despite their 9-6 record, looking at the Chargers it just seems that something isn't quite clicking with their offense. Herbert hasn't thrown a TD pass in the past two games. The Rams are playing simply for pride at this point and seem to have gotten a boost from the addition of Baker Mayfield. That's why I like them to at least cover the 6.5.
I tend to agree with you here. Especially if I can get the Titans +10.5.
I personally think after Brett Favre, Herbert has the best/strongest arm in the current NFL. Twice I bet the scoring prop: Herbert pass TD's OVER 1.5 and on both games he got zero. Come on man ! Every time in the red zone and LAC got to the 10, Ekeler ran it in. Thought the OVER 1.5 was a slam dunk. There are no slam dunks in the NFL.
Notice the CAR at TB ( -3 , - 110 ) line hasn't moved to -3.5 yet, the books just keep adjusting the CAR vig , now it's - 120. The sharp money thinks that CAR could steal this super important game and don't want to give the hook and make the line TB -FG+. Tease the CAR line and I think they keep it close in this battle. ( some books let the bettors tease by 6, 7, 10 or 13 points). Go crazy guys !
So as a Chargers fan I can tell you their ''D'' schemes revolve around all pro and team captain Derwin James. He was ejected from the Colts game because of a questionable head shot but was also put in concussion protocol after the game. There's concern that he might miss the Rams game or that the Chargers will hold him out. If he's not in there, their whole ''D'' has to adjust.
Joe Lombardi is their ''O'' coordinator. Grandson of the late great Vince. He's been under extreme scrutiny over his play calling all year. For good reason. They've had their share of injuries,true. Still though they have under utilized the talent available to them. Word is that he's gone at the end of the season. His offense is boring and predictable. You hardly ever see Herbert airing it out like he did his first year in the league. It's all ball control. Which is fine until the defensive figures that out starts stuffing you.
Head coach Staley is a staunch user of analytics and it has come back to bite him with many questionable decisions. The Chargers fan base is growing weary of his failed calls. I have zero faith in him.
Bottom line is that I'm taking the points and the Rams this weekend.
Staley and Harbaugh are the worst users of stats / analytics . I could flip a coin and come out with better odds than those two put together. 4th and 9 on your own 30 yard line. Come on man ! Just flip that coin !
Derek Carr gets benched for too much crying . . . Take SF spread or M/Line . . . It's like printing money . Parlay it with Boys/ Eagles M/Line . .
Derwin James is incredible. I love watching him play football. That ejection was horseshit.
There's a lot of those ejection calls in NCAA, such borderline calls, you can see the call both ways . . UGH
I contemplated changing my Saints pick because I wasn't sure about the status of Kamara and Olave, but both seem to be a go. They also are getting CB Lattimore back which is a boost. Hurts is out as is OT Lane Johnson for the Eagles.
So my picks for the week are 49'ers, Saints, Commanders, Rams. I also lean towards the Bucs and the Steelers.
So my picks for the week are 49'ers, Saints, Commanders, Rams. I also lean towards the Bucs and the Steelers.
I took Raiders +9.5. The game fits my spread trends.
Teams favoured by from 7-10 cover less than teams favoured over 10. It's over 50%
AFC cover more than 50%against NFC
Home dog.
This is like a division game as LV used to be in Oakland. Big rivalry. Teams can play over their heads. As you alluded to, this looks like an easy pick for SF, so I went the other way along with my above look at the spread trends.
I also took Carolina +3.5. Division dog.
I came back down to earth last week. 0-4, so I'm 11-6 since posing my pics on TERB.
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I really like your CAR + 3.5, I would be more aggressive and take the + 170 Money line, but if TB wins on a last minute drive by a FG , you win and I lose. During the week the spread increased by that 0.5 and I think that helps you win your bet . Good luck today !
I split and went 1-1. I won the game that I liked better and bet more on, the Raiders. That game fit better with my spread analytics. And, as Kirk pointed out, it looked like a very obvious and easy pick for SF. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is, just like in real life.
The Panthers was more of a hunch and would have had it except for that late turnover. They were only down by 3 at that point. All they had to do was to hold onto the ball.
The same thing happened to me last week in the Philly game. I had the dog and Philly had scored with just a minute or two left and had a small lead, less than the spread. The other team took the kickoff and once again, only had to hold onto the ball. Once again, that was obviously too much to ask for. First play was a turnover and Philly was able to widen their lead and cover very late.
Pretty ugly week 17 going 1-3 on my best bets.
For the life of me I cannot understand how the 49'ers gave up 34 points to the Raiders with Jarret Stidham under centre. No effective pass rush to speak of against one of the worst offensive lines in football.
Rams getting spanked by the Chargers also surprised me especially with no Derwin James playing. Rams defensive line played horribly couldn't generate any semblance of a pass rush and couldn't stop the run. Its truly amazing to me that just one year ago this team won the SB.
I was also way off on the Vikings. Didn't see Kirk Cousins playing that poorly. Unbelievable the Packers control their own playoff destiny.
Looking forward to a great Monday nighter. If I had to bet I think I'd lay my $ on the Bengals to win and cover.
For the life of me I cannot understand how the 49'ers gave up 34 points to the Raiders with Jarret Stidham under centre. No effective pass rush to speak of against one of the worst offensive lines in football.
Rams getting spanked by the Chargers also surprised me especially with no Derwin James playing. Rams defensive line played horribly couldn't generate any semblance of a pass rush and couldn't stop the run. Its truly amazing to me that just one year ago this team won the SB.
I was also way off on the Vikings. Didn't see Kirk Cousins playing that poorly. Unbelievable the Packers control their own playoff destiny.
Looking forward to a great Monday nighter. If I had to bet I think I'd lay my $ on the Bengals to win and cover.
I bet small on LV and DEN money lines, almost came through. . The MIN/PACK game was like a copy of the MIN/BOYS game. I don't think my Eagles were ever
in the game. BUFF vs CIN, I can't pick that game . . .
in the game. BUFF vs CIN, I can't pick that game . . .
