NFL Playoffs

[K Douglas]

I made a bit of $ yesterday. Had the Ravens money line, Packers to cover and topped it off with a Lightning win over Buffalo. Crazy that Proline was giving them 1.8 odds.
Let's hope I can keep the momentum going today.
1st game Bucs at Lions. The spread is currently Lions -6. I'm confident the Bucs cover this spread. Lions D is still their Achilles Heel so laying almost a TD is too much.

2nd game Chiefs at Bills. Bills -2.5. I think home field advantage is pretty big and the Bills have played well the past 5-6 games but damn they are banged up coming into this one on a short week to boot. Reid is a better coach than McDermott and the KC defense is superior to Buffalo's. But I just think the Bills are a team of destiny this year. They sense something and Allen is the biggest game changer playing. Give me the home team in a close battle. Strictly a hunch. Really looking forward to watching this one.

 

[tml]

I thought a Baltimore/SF final was inevitable, but SF looked beatable yesterday.

 

[shack]

I thought a Baltimore/SF final was inevitable, but SF looked beatable yesterday.

Maybe an all Lake Erie SB. It's still in play.

 

[shack]

I made a bit of $ yesterday. Had the Ravens money line, Packers to cover and topped it off with a Lightning win over Buffalo. Crazy that Proline was giving them 1.8 odds.
Let's hope I can keep the momentum going today.
1st game Bucs at Lions. The spread is currently Lions -6. I'm confident the Bucs cover this spread. Lions D is still their Achilles Heel so laying almost a TD is too much.

2nd game Chiefs at Bills. Bills -2.5. I think home field advantage is pretty big and the Bills have played well the past 5-6 games but damn they are banged up coming into this one on a short week to boot. Reid is a better coach than McDermott and the KC defense is superior to Buffalo's. But I just think the Bills are a team of destiny this year. They sense something and Allen is the biggest game changer playing. Give me the home team in a close battle. Strictly a hunch. Really looking forward to watching this one.

Kirk. I highly respect your thorough knowledge of the NFL. It is truly impressive.

And I know I've said it before but you are basically saying that the oddsmakers screwed up. You know more than they.

We both know that that is folly. Whatever factors you've considered they've considered 100X more factors. It's their jobs. Billions and billions of dollars are riding on their judgement. I know they have to tweak the numbers a bit depending on which way the betting public goes. But they are the unequivocal experts.

Bet with your gut, bet with a system, bet for your favourite team you'll be close to 50%. I've never kept stats for the playoffs, but it seems to me that in the playoffs the home team, the team that has a better record (yes the schedule is unbalanced) covers more often. I took all 4 faves and I'm 2-1. I prefer to analyze the performance of the oddsmakers, not the performance of the teams.

Just be realistic and I hope you make a shitload of money. BTW, this goes for every single solitary prognosticator. The guys on TV, the guys on the radio, the guys on-line and in the publications. the former NFL guys, the guys who run their own betting sites/agencies and yes, the rest of us schmucks. Don't look at a few factors and think that the guys in Vegas overlooked something.

Gonna watch the Bills now. I got it on PVR.

 

[Steve_Stevens]

Scott Norwood baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[tml]

Maybe an all Lake Erie SB. It's still in play.

Maybe not. Damn.

 

[K Douglas]

Kirk. I highly respect your thorough knowledge of the NFL. It is truly impressive.

And I know I've said it before but you are basically saying that the oddsmakers screwed up. You know more than they.

We both know that that is folly. Whatever factors you've considered they've considered 100X more factors. It's their jobs. Billions and billions of dollars are riding on their judgement. I know they have to tweak the numbers a bit depending on which way the betting public goes. But they are the unequivocal experts.

Bet with your gut, bet with a system, bet for your favourite team you'll be close to 50%. I've never kept stats for the playoffs, but it seems to me that in the playoffs the home team, the team that has a better record (yes the schedule is unbalanced) covers more often. I took all 4 faves and I'm 2-1. I prefer to analyze the performance of the oddsmakers, not the performance of the teams.

Just be realistic and I hope you make a shitload of money. BTW, this goes for every single solitary prognosticator. The guys on TV, the guys on the radio, the guys on-line and in the publications. the former NFL guys, the guys who run their own betting sites/agencies and yes, the rest of us schmucks. Don't look at a few factors and think that the guys in Vegas overlooked something.

Gonna watch the Bills now. I got it on PVR.

The math that goes into setting odds is exhaustive I hear exactly what you're saying. When I put in a confidence factor often that is based on a gut feeling. Both games yesterday were super close and could have gone the other direction. The LIons D played better than I thought they would - they got pressure on Baker and forced two picks. That was the difference.

My bet with the Bills was more on hope than anything. Coming off a short week and missing their best LB it was an uphill battle from the start. But they easily had a chance to take it to extra time but the kicker shanked. Poor Bills fans have to put up with a lot.

Didn't lose much and still up over $100 over the weekend. Not bad.

 

[shack]

Maybe not. Damn.

It's not looking too promising anymore. LOL.

 

[shack]

The math that goes into setting odds is exhaustive I hear exactly what you're saying. When I put in a confidence factor often that is based on a gut feeling. Both games yesterday were super close and could have gone the other direction. The LIons D played better than I thought they would - they got pressure on Baker and forced two picks. That was the difference.

My bet with the Bills was more on hope than anything. Coming off a short week and missing their best LB it was an uphill battle from the start. But they easily had a chance to take it to extra time but the kicker shanked. Poor Bills fans have to put up with a lot.

Didn't lose much and still up over $100 over the weekend. Not bad.

I was 2-2 and lost $10.

In my pool, where my once upon good chances have faded the last 2 weeks, I bet the max number of points I could under the rules, all on Detroit, so I still have some life.

Ravens look to be the top team right now. Jackson and a solid defence. Frisco very physical and talented but they're not consistent enough. Both are very well coached.

 

[Ref]

2 - 2 against the spread and 3 - 1 SU.

Much better games this past weekend.

At this level and time of the season coaching plays such an important role in the difference between winning and losing. When I say coaching, I am referring to all coaches both on the field and up in the booth. It is all about reading what the other team is doing and what type of adjustments can be made.

The Ravens game was close and then they made the right adjustments to shut down Houston in the second half. The Houston coaching staff were unable to counteract the adjustments the Ravens staff made at half time. In the Buff/KC game, the Chiefs made the adjustments that were able to shut down the Bills in the second half as Buffalo was only able to score 7 points (vs 17 in the first half).

Play these games again, and the outcome will be different as the players on these teams are highly skilled and coaches can come up with a different game plan or select the right strategies in the game at that time.

To me, coaching staffs in the NFL are big difference makers when it comes to wins and success.

 

[K Douglas]

I was 2-2 and lost $10.

In my pool, where my once upon good chances have faded the last 2 weeks, I bet the max number of points I could under the rules, all on Detroit, so I still have some life.

Ravens look to be the top team right now. Jackson and a solid defence. Frisco very physical and talented but they're not consistent enough. Both are very well coached.

I absolutely think that the Ravens are the favorite right now. I'd really like to see a Ravens v. Lions SB matchup.

 

[shack]

I agree with your assessment of the Ravens/Browns being the best team right now, But I think there would be more interest with SF than with the Lions.

 

[Anbarandy]

I agree with your assessment of the Ravens/Browns being the best team right now,

Those transport trucks left the shores of Lake Erie a generation ago.

However, the 2000 NFL champions, the Baltimore Bowns, were mostly conceived and built in Cleveland.

 

[shack]

Those transport trucks left the shores of Lake Erie a generation ago.

However, the 2000 NFL champions, the Baltimore Bowns, were mostly conceived and built in Cleveland.

And how about when Robert Irsay had those trucks pull up and move the Colts from Baltimore to Indianapolis?

Two of the most storied franchises and the most loyal fans. Like daggers through the hearts.