This link shows the penalties which would be imposed on the Blue Jays if they sign free agent who declined a qualifying offer from the team he played for in 2026.
The qualifying offer for the 2027 season is a 1 year contract at $23.15 Million, the average salary of the 125 highest paid players. Any player who accepts the qualifying offer qualifies for free agency after the 2027 season, unless he signs an extension.
It's important to note that a player can receive a qualifying offer only once in his career, and any player who played for more than one team during his pre-free agency season will not receive a qualifying offer.
If a team signs a qualified free agent, what is the added cost beyond just the salary? MLB Trade Rumors has the breakdown.
www.mlbtraderumors.com
Scroll to near the bottom of the article to see how this would affect the Blue Jays; they are among the Competitive Balance Tax Payors.
I think Shane Bieber is eligible to receive a qualifying offer, but I don't think he'll get one without a clean bill of health. In the scenario where Bieber receives and rejects a QO from the Jays, they would receive some draft pick compensation, but not as much as they would if they had not exceeded the Luxury Tax cap in each of the past two seasons.
The penalties will be more severe if they exceed the cap for a third consecutive season. They were over the cap in 2023, but managed to sneak under in 2024 through trades in July, 2024:
Blue Jays transactions, July 2024
Related:
Each Team’s Draft Compensation For Losing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent
I can't see this affecting any Blue Jay except Bieber. In theory, Jose Berrios could decline his player option, the Jays could make a qualifying offer which he rejects, and another team could sign him. I don't see any of those three things happening. All of the other Blue Jays' free agents have either received a qualifying offer in the past, or they would never get one.