Jays 2026 Thread
- Thread starter bggolfingmaniac
- Start date
The latest about Barger's elbow surgery: https://www.mlb.com/news/addison-barger-elbow-surgery-blue-jays
More bad news:
This link: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax explains the implications and penalties associated with teams that exceed the Competitive Balance Tax, (CBT), limit, AKA the Luxury Tax.
The Blue Jays are currently over the limit for a second consecutive year, and they are currently more than $38 Million above the limit in 2026, (source: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/_/year/2026
It's likely that this amount will not exceed $40 Million in 2026, but it does mean that if the 2026 Jays had been in a position to be buyers at the 2026 deadline, their ability to add salary by acquiring rental players would have been severely limited:
"Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead."
2026 is the last year of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, so there's no way of knowing what the rules will be for next season, but if the current rules were extended, the 2027 CBT would be about $247 Million, and the Blue Jays already have more than $216 Million allocated, for the 2027 salaries of 11 players*, (source: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/_/year/2027.
*The 11 Players includes Jose Berrios at $24 Million player option, who is likely to miss the entire 2027 season.
This would leave the Blue Jays with about $30 Million to spend for the remaining 29 spots on their 40 man roster to be below the CBT limit, and about $70 Million to spend to remain less that $40 Million above the limit, in order to not be penalized in the 2028 amateur draft. Realistically, they have no future stars in the minor leagues who are ready to make a significant contribution in 2027.
@K Douglas: This is similar to when a Rotisserie team owner has $12 left to spend, 7 spots to fill, and two of them are an outfielder and a corner. Most likely he'll be the only one selecting in the last five rounds, choosing dollar guys that nobody else wanted.
This link: https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax explains the implications and penalties associated with teams that exceed the Competitive Balance Tax, (CBT), limit, AKA the Luxury Tax.
The Blue Jays are currently over the limit for a second consecutive year, and they are currently more than $38 Million above the limit in 2026, (source: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/_/year/2026
It's likely that this amount will not exceed $40 Million in 2026, but it does mean that if the 2026 Jays had been in a position to be buyers at the 2026 deadline, their ability to add salary by acquiring rental players would have been severely limited:
"Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead."
2026 is the last year of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, so there's no way of knowing what the rules will be for next season, but if the current rules were extended, the 2027 CBT would be about $247 Million, and the Blue Jays already have more than $216 Million allocated, for the 2027 salaries of 11 players*, (source: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/payroll/_/year/2027.
*The 11 Players includes Jose Berrios at $24 Million player option, who is likely to miss the entire 2027 season.
This would leave the Blue Jays with about $30 Million to spend for the remaining 29 spots on their 40 man roster to be below the CBT limit, and about $70 Million to spend to remain less that $40 Million above the limit, in order to not be penalized in the 2028 amateur draft. Realistically, they have no future stars in the minor leagues who are ready to make a significant contribution in 2027.
@K Douglas: This is similar to when a Rotisserie team owner has $12 left to spend, 7 spots to fill, and two of them are an outfielder and a corner. Most likely he'll be the only one selecting in the last five rounds, choosing dollar guys that nobody else wanted.
Any of you guys who have IPTV should check out Jacob Misiorowski pitching against the Rockies right now.
He's just blowing batters away with his 104mph fastball.
Guys like this are a joy to watch
He's just blowing batters away with his 104mph fastball.
Guys like this are a joy to watch
Blue Jays' American League Team ranking in various statistics:
Home Runs: tied for 13th
Runs Scored: 15th
Triples: 15th
Walks: 15th
On Base Percentage: 15th
Slugging: 13th
They're 8th of 15 or similar to most cumulative pitching stats.
Payroll: 2nd.
Payroll, active 26 man roster, all MLB: 2nd
Payroll, injured, all MLB: 10th
Individual anomaly: Lenyn Sosa: 80 AB, 1 BB
Highest OPS, all players: Jonatan Clase, .905 (22 At Bats)
Highest OPS, qualified players: Kazuma Okamoto, .752
Qualified American League players with an OPS higher than .752: 32
On the bright side: 4th in all of MLB in attendance.
Harold Ballard taught us all that Toronto fans will pay top dollar to watch a mediocre team, while remaining eternally optimistic.
good news is they are out of it so they will sell. I laugh at the commentors pretending they are still in it. Springer is hitting again and Hoffman and Bieber are pitching well so they will fetch something. Esp Hoffman as he still is under contract for next year. So will Gausman as he will make a great 3rd starter even though he has had a few poor starts
Last edited:
I blame the Jays
That is because he has (had?) the best arm in MLB but throwing so hard is risky
They should have not let him throw so hard as one out is not worth the risk of destroying your elbow
and he had greater value as a homerun guy
Really poor judgement on the part of the Jays
Some things are off in your post - I'll focus on this quote. In summary its not quite the major problem you are making it out to be if you are a contender and are above the $284M number (the penalties are more nuisances than significant disincentives). That being said the Jays are actually at $307M, (above the $284M number) and being a non contender those draft penalties will hurt much more.
I made the same mistake last week with that Spotrac link you have provided, thinking they were at $282 and below the $284M-- the $282M number is not their luxury tax number... its $307M - see the link below.
#1. Contending teams really don't care that much about being over the $284M threshold (the penalty line $40M over the CBT number of $244 as you noted) as the penalties are not a massive disincentive IF you are contending. If the Jays had been a contender it would not have been an issue to trade for more players (and they are already above it!)
- Going down 10 spots when you are in the 20's (or #30) is not a big deal... and I believe the lowest you can fall to is #30 anyway, but I could be wrong on that. Either way if you are a contender fallingt from say #24 to #29 (or #34) is not a big problem.
- The additional punishments of higher $ tax penalty over $284M or some decrease in international bonus money are nuisances but not killers.
#2. The Jays are actually over the $284M threshold - the are at $307 million right now. I made the same error when I looked at Spotrac last week.
2026 Toronto Blue Jays 2026 Luxury Tax Payroll
For struggling teams like the Jays its much more of an issue. Falling from #7 where they are at now) to say #17.... hurts a lot more.
#3. So the Jays actually have to cut about $23M of pro-rated salary at the deadline (or about $70M of annual salary) to get below the $284M threshold to avoid these penalties. Its not automatic they will get there by trading their pending FA's (+ Straw and Sanchez) who earn about $90M of annual salary, as the portion they eat would be excluded. The biggest issue is Springer who they probably need to at a fair bit of his $26M contract to move him.
The Jays may need to choose between "eating" salary to get better prospects, or trying to get below the $284M penalty line.
This is also where they may need to trade Hoffman/Rogers to get below the $284M number.
Last edited:
Holy crap Manoah's numbers in AAA are some of the worst I've ever seen in pro ball. To go from dominance to that in a relatively short time span is mind blowing.
www.baseball-reference.com
Alek Manoah College, Amateur & Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com
Alek Manoah College, Amateur & Minor Leagues Statistics including batting, fielding, prospect rankings and more on Baseball-Reference.com
www.baseball-reference.com
The quote from my post, (#623) which you referenced is from the mlb(dot)com link, re: competitive balance tax. 2026 will be the third consecutive year in which the Blue Jays have been over the limit.
As far as the correct value for the Jays' 2026 payroll, I went only by the amount shown on spotrac. I don't need to attempt to verify the amount you posted. Years of experience have taught me that your knowledge about the current game, both on and off the field, surpasses mine.
If the Jays finish the season above the $284 Million figure, likely the best they can hope for is a bottom six finish among all 30 teams, and cross their fingers that somebody doesn't leapfrog them in the draft lottery.
I lived in the Montreal area from mid 1969 until late 1984, so while the Blue Jays are my hometown team, I don't wear Blue Jays' rose coloured glasses. A search of this forum will confirm that I am on the record many times stating that it would have been in the Jays' best interests to have started to rebuild at the 2024 deadline, and that would have included dealing Vlad and Bo with a year and a half of club control remaining. Being a buyer at the deadline makes sense to teams contending for, at minimum a division title. For everyone else, it's a fool's game. I personally like the Houston Astros' business model of trading for big name rental players in years when they have legitimate World Series aspirations, and trading nearly expired contracts for young controllable talent in other years.
Signing or re-signing expensive free agents makes sense when a team has a young core of talented and underpaid players with no leverage. Trying to buy a contender through free agent signings/ re-signings without the cheap labour is a recipe for disaster, not only in the short term, but for years afterwards. Most of the teams which consistently spent multiple consecutive years in the second division in recent history have one thing in common: The grossly overpaid for a first baseman.
My list: Angels, (Albert Pujols), Reds, (Joey Votto), Rangers, (Prince Fielder), Orioles, (Chris Davis), Tigers, (Miguel Cabrera).
