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Jays 2023

Darts

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IV, you get the blame if someone starts complaining we are hijacking this thread.

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Zoot Allures

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I expect Berrios will have a much better season. I'm not sure what happened with him last season. His K rate was way down and he gave up more hits than innings pitched for the first time in his career. I wouldn't be shocked to see him shave that ERA by a run and half.
our outfield starters has improved from one of the worse defensively in baseball to one of the best

our nimber one defensive fielder of last year in Springer is now our number three

all our eras will improve for this reason alone

concerning berrios, he had all of last year to improve and did not
so I do not understand your belief that a few months of not pitching will make him better

while it is true some pitchers rebound after a bad year, a lot do not
 

Toronto Passions

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Hernandez will make $14 Million in 2023, after losing in arbitration, and he's a free agent at the end of the year. Erik Swanson will make $1.25 Million in 2023, and is not eligible for free agency before the 2026 season. The salary saving pays Brandon Belt's 2023 salary, ($9.3 M), Swanson, and Bo Bichette's raise.

Before free agency, sports trades could be evaluated based on a talent for talent basis. Today, the money equation and years of club control are possibly more important, or at least, equally so. The Jays are right on the edge of the 'soft cap' figure for team payroll, and they don't have ownership that's indifferent to Luxury Tax. Seattle is paying Hernandez about 1 Million less than the Jays paid him for 2021 and 2022 combined. In assessing his trade value, the Jays determined that, as an asset expiring at the end of the season, his value was less than Belt, Swanson, Bichette's raise and Adam Macko the prospect. The stat that jumps about about Macko is 148 K's in 95 minor league innings, at or below A ball.

Look at what the Jays got for Josh Donaldson: Julian Merryweather, and look at how valuable Josh is these days, with about $30 Million of guaranteed money owed to him over the next two years, (plus the luxury tax). The current Jays' management is looking to pay players based on expected performance, rather than for past reputation, and arguably they are ahead of the pack in that respect. They have no chance whatsoever in bidding wars against the clubs with unlimited pocket depth.
If im not mistaken his camp was asking for 16 million in arbitration. Cheapskate Mariners countered with 14. I believe the Blue Jays could've locked him up for five years in the low 20s.

I understand everything. I am also excited to see Varsho play. My question is what the hell are they going to do when Matt Chapman jumps ship? Let's say Matt Chapman hits over 30 home runs this year. I'm sorry but I don't see the Blue Jays paying him nearly 300 million for 8 to 10 years. And if Machado ops out of his contract he's going to set a whole new dictation chart.

Which personally, leads me back into a big circle of how they mishandled Hernandez. Not for nothing, but completely stripping down a winning formula that made it to the wildcard last season, is probably not on the most recommended of general manager handbook tips. I still think the Blue Jays made some great moves. And if everything works out this can be amazing. But I think they struck down the core a little too deep with how they handled Hernandez. Get rid of Gurriel and his goofy haircut and dancing, OK that's cool. But breaking up the Dominican one two punch. I'm sorry but with George Springer grimacing and limping every month like he's about to go on the DL, I think Hernandez and his leadership skills especially to Latin American players........was greatly undervalued. You don't mess with producing Dominican Blue Jays that the fans like. That's the secret Toronto formula for success. It's all about that true essence Bluejay history flavour lol.

Philip
 

Toronto Passions

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... correction I just learned that Machado has extended. And I think it's safe to say Matt Chapman will be extremely wealthy. Wouldn't be such a big loss if they've handled Hernandez properly.

Just saying...

Philip
 

shack

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concerning berrios, he had all of last year to improve and did not
so I do not understand your belief that a few months of not pitching will make him better
Even though he didn't pitch in actual games, do you think that he didn't do a lot of work in the off-season to make adjustments to his technique, as well as physical training, watch a lot of video, etc., etc, most of which he can't do as thoroughly during the season?

The guy has been a consistent performer through his career and is still relatively young. IMO, there's a greater chance that he will rebound than have a repeat of last year.
 
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shack

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but completely stripping down a winning formula

Philip
They traded 2 players and revamped the outfield and made it much better defensively. IMHO, I wouldn't consider that "completely stripping down".

They are assuming that the loss of some Hernandez runs/RBIs will be more than compensated with runs saved.

I don't think that anybody really knows at this point if it will work out as planned.
 
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Toronto Passions

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They are assuming that the loss of some Hernandez runs/RBIs will be more than compensated with runs saved.

I don't think that anybody really knows at this point if it will work out as planned.
Too many assumptions in my opinion coming off of a playoff berth. I can talk about this until I'm blue in the face. I think I need to form an anti-Hernandez trade protest group. Lol.

Philip
 

Insidious Von

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I agree with Shack, the Jays wouldn't have traded Hernandez unless they had a Plan B. Did you see the moonshot Addison Barger hit?

Obviously the broadcaster is a Legion of Doom fan.

 

Markdougs8989

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Jays have agreed to a deal with FA Kevin Kiermaier.
Well, he's a veteran left handed bat, but offensively he's not that great. He's great outfielder with speed to fill void of Teo, but he's often injured the last few years.
I personally think they downgraded this year
 

Toronto Passions

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I agree with Shack, the Jays wouldn't have traded Hernandez unless they had a Plan B. Did you see the moonshot Addison Barger hit?

Obviously the broadcaster is a Legion of Doom fan.

Maybe I'm too old school. Why have a Plan B when plan A was working just fine. I don't know. All your Atkins lovers are a handful. I give up. Lol

go jays go

Philip
 

onomatopoeia

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Teoscar Hernandez career stats:

hernandez-1.png

Essentially, he has 1 1/3 'star' seasons, and three more where he's Colby Rasmus, with worse defense.

If he has a big year in 2023, some team will overpay him, and eventually regret the last two guaranteed years of the contract. If he posts the same numbers this season, the $14 Million salary will be about right, but it won't be a bargain. If his performance regresses, Seattle will likely extend the qualifying offer, but not make a strong effort to retain him for longer than a three year deal.

He's at the age where he's not going to run faster, and his defense probably won't improve. He's also at the point in his career where his cost will quickly exceed his performance value. It won't be long before a prospect can provide similar performance for a fraction of the cost.

Part of the General Manager's job, (whenever the ownership doesn't care about salary caps), is to get other teams to overpay for talent, so they have less to spend when it comes to bidding on the players YOU want. The Jays always have the geographical disadvantage, in that many elite players don't want to play in Canada, and artificial turf in their home stadium excludes them from many other players' desired destinations.
 

Insidious Von

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Maybe I'm too old school. Why have a Plan B when plan A was working just fine. I don't know. All your Atkins lovers are a handful. I give up. Lol
As Sherlock Holmes said: Analytics my dear Toronto Passions, analytics.

Barger hit 26 last year. He spent the off-season bulking up in a bid to make the show. He's four months younger than Vlady, Teoscar is on the wrong side of 30. He will give flexibility to the Jays infield, Vlady probably wont play every game at 1B. Imho the Jays Plan B doesn't look like Plan 9 from Outer Space.

 

Toronto Passions

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Teoscar Hernandez career stats:

View attachment 214451

Essentially, he has 1 1/3 'star' seasons, and three more where he's Colby Rasmus, with worse defense.

If he has a big year in 2023, some team will overpay him, and eventually regret the last two guaranteed years of the contract. If he posts the same numbers this season, the $14 Million salary will be about right, but it won't be a bargain. If his performance regresses, Seattle will likely extend the qualifying offer, but not make a strong effort to retain him for longer than a three year deal.

He's at the age where he's not going to run faster, and his defense probably won't improve. He's also at the point in his career where his cost will quickly exceed his performance value. It won't be long before a prospect can provide similar performance for a fraction of the cost.

Part of the General Manager's job, (whenever the ownership doesn't care about salary caps), is to get other teams to overpay for talent, so they have less to spend when it comes to bidding on the players YOU want. The Jays always have the geographical disadvantage, in that many elite players don't want to play in Canada, and artificial turf in their home stadium excludes them from many other players' desired destinations.
I'm not huge on percentages, but I do know that over the past five seasons Hernandez averaged in the 84 or higher percentile for sprint speed, and the 96 or higher percentile for exit velocity and hard hit balls. He's a veteran. and I want him on my team. Plus I like him in a Jays uniform. A fan favourite Dominican power hitter in Toronto absolutely has extreme importance. Springer grimaces a little too much for my liking. I don't like him as a leader but I do like Hernandez as a leader.

I really have nothing more to say on this matter I'm even getting on my own nerves now. Lol.

Philip
 

shack

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IV, you get the blame if someone starts complaining we are hijacking this thread.
Dartsy, it's nice to see that I still live rent free in your mind. You seem to constantly think of me.

1677531424537.png
 

Fun For All

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I'm not huge on percentages, but I do know that over the past five seasons Hernandez averaged in the 84 or higher percentile for sprint speed, and the 96 or higher percentile for exit velocity and hard hit balls. He's a veteran. and I want him on my team. Plus I like him in a Jays uniform. A fan favourite Dominican power hitter in Toronto absolutely has extreme importance. Springer grimaces a little too much for my liking. I don't like him as a leader but I do like Hernandez as a leader.

I really have nothing more to say on this matter I'm even getting on my own nerves now. Lol.

Philip
So what you're saying is...Erik Swanson better be good!
 
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