Why Hamas Attacked When It Did
The October 7 Hamas attacks proved devastating for both Israel and ordinary Palestinians. Why did Hamas decide to attack Israel when it did?
The Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, were by far the most deadly terrorist attack in the country’s history, and the resulting war is one of the most devastating to Palestinians, with over 15,000 dead so far, a number that will surely rise further as Israel tries to destroy Hamas completely. Why did Hamas attack when it knew that the consequences for it and the Palestinian people would be so deadly? From the statements of Hamas leaders, reporting drawing on documents captured from Hamas fighters, and Hamas’s long track record, some answers can be gleaned.
One of Hamas’s goals was simply to kill Israelis—many of them. The Washington Post reported that instructions found on dead Hamas fighters included, “Kill as many people and take as many hostages as possible.” Among other weapons, Hamas also equipped its fighters with thermobaric grenades, which can quickly cause massive fires in a home. The fighters also had enough ammunition and food to keep going into Israel if they were able to do so, as well as maps, suggesting an even higher death toll was possible.
Indeed, part of what Hamas wanted involved revenge for what it saw as past Israeli attacks and the constant Israeli occupation of the West Bank, arrest of Hamas leaders, isolation, and bombing of Gaza. Until October 7, most Israelis could live their lives believing that Hamas’s situation and that of other Palestinians mattered little to them on a day-to-day basis. No longer.
Yet Hamas’s hatred of Israel is a constant, and it does not explain Hamas’s decision to strike on October 7 and not before. Part of the explanation may be that what Hamas saw as its gestures toward moderation before the October 7 attacks brought it few rewards. Hamas publicly rebranded in 2017, releasing an updated charter in which the group signaled its acceptance of a two-state solution as an appropriate temporary measure. The charter still contained many hateful and bellicose components, but it was a change from the group’s 1988 founding statement, which fundamentally rejected any accommodation with Israel.
Some Israelis and outside analysts had come to believe that serving as Gaza’s governing body for nearly two decades had moderated the group’s stance on the conflict and resistance to Israel, with the group accepting that a massive assault would be counterproductive. On the surface, at least, Hamas seemed to back up this perceived change with actions. Before October 7, the group not only limited its own rocket attacks on Israel but also publicly punished those who instigated attacks within Gaza to break the fragile ceasefires. Hamas has let the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fight Israel alone, not joining the fray between Israel and the PIJ in August 2022 or in May 2023.
Was this strategy just a front while the group planned the October 7 attack? Perhaps. But Israel and the international community did not make a major shift in their policies in response to Hamas’s moderation. There were limited economic concessions and statements acknowledging Hamas’s role in governing Gaza. At the same time, there was incendiary far-right political rhetoric and rising levels of violence against Palestinians. Both 2021 and 2022 set records as the deadliest years for Palestinians, as the Netanyahu government green-lit the expansion of settlements in the West Bank and settlers themselves conducted pogroms against Palestinians.
