Hamas Willing To Disarm...new position

[Valcazar]

Another 'gotcha' attack, valcazar?

No. That's a question.
Do you or do you not consider supporting the party that moves you towards your end goal important?
That's a very long term question. It may even require switching back and forth between parties based on who is proposing what policy at a given time.

Either you think that is an important thing to do or you don't.

The latest news says that Hamas is responding to the latest ceasefire proposal. Israel's goal seems to be to offer a temporary break in fighting where hostages are returned and then to resume the fighting. The latest offer is for a 40 day truce. Hamas has been saying they want a permanent ceasefire.

If they can stop the genocide, great. If its just a pause that's something, but if Israel's goal is to continue its likely they won't be allowing aid and medical care through. But who knows, a 40 day truce, ICC charges and the upcoming election may be enough to stop it.

And that has to do what with my question, actually?

At this point, you must be pretty pissed at Biden for screwing up what should be an easy reelection, even if you don't care too much about the genocide.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784752791162085750

You do know that Biden was losing in the polls before any of this started, right?
Yes, this quarter is the worst unfavorables.

I'm sure you also realize that a large part of that is from people who think he isn't supporting Israel enough and I'm also sure you realize a large part of that has to do with people mad about entirely unrelated issues?

Do I think he could be handling I/P better?
Of course.
Would him handling it more in the way I like improve his polling numbers? Maybe a small amount but it is hard to say.

 

[Frankfooter]

No. That's a question.
Do you or do you not consider supporting the party that moves you towards your end goal important?
That's a very long term question. It may even require switching back and forth between parties based on who is proposing what policy at a given time.

Either you think that is an important thing to do or you don't.

Sure, I think long term the dems should be supported, which is why turfing the party of zionists in the short term works towards longer term health.
Same for the liberals here, I'll vote NDP or greens next election until the Trudeau and the zionist part of the party are gone.

That you don't think stopping support of the genocide is an important issue is your priority.

You do know that Biden was losing in the polls before any of this started, right?
Yes, this quarter is the worst unfavorables.

Of course I know. But you also know that if Biden had worked towards ending the violence instead of enabling it his numbers would be much better.

I'm sure you also realize that a large part of that is from people who think he isn't supporting Israel enough and I'm also sure you realize a large part of that has to do with people mad about entirely unrelated issues?

I'm pretty sure that's nonsense. Even after the first month 80% of dems were backing a ceasefire and now the majority of dems think Israel is committing genocide.

Do I think he could be handling I/P better?
Of course.
Would him handling it more in the way I like improve his polling numbers? Maybe a small amount but it is hard to say.

A small amount?

57% of those who voted for Biden last time say Israel is committing genocide. Only 15% said no to that question.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778457908285673974

I'm not even one who keeps lists like this.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1781086302714146874

 

[Valcazar]

Sure, I think long term the dems should be supported, which is why turfing the party of zionists in the short term works towards longer term health.
Same for the liberals here, I'll vote NDP or greens next election until the Trudeau and the zionist part of the party are gone.

Well, your strategy is consistent at least.

That you don't think stopping support of the genocide is an important issue is your priority.

You have said explicitly that the election will not stop the genocide, so I am very confused why you think what you do about my position.

Of course I know. But you also know that if Biden had worked towards ending the violence instead of enabling it his numbers would be much better.

Sadly, I don't know that.

I'm pretty sure that's nonsense. Even after the first month 80% of dems were backing a ceasefire and now the majority of dems think Israel is committing genocide.

But those disapproval numbers are not only from Democrats.
You understand that, right?

A small amount?

57% of those who voted for Biden last time say Israel is committing genocide. Only 15% said no to that question.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778457908285673974

Yes.
The problem you have here is that people rank the conflict fairly low on the list of things that are important to their vote.

(This is from the recent CNN poll ending last week, but these kinds of numbers have been consistent.)



And the one from a bit earlier by NBC.



So no.
I don't think it moves the needle all that much because it just isn't the most important issue to enough people to move the needle that much.

That is a completely separate issue from whether or not it can cost him the election, because distribution of votes is more important than number of votes, as you know.

 

[Kautilya]

Well, your strategy is consistent at least.

Sure, I think long term the dems should be supported, which is why turfing the party of zionists in the short term works towards longer term health.
Same for the liberals here, I'll vote NDP or greens next election until the Trudeau and the zionist part of the party are gone

Did not read through everything. But on the issue of elections, I just wanted to say that I dont think there is a pro-Palestinian western leader in either Biden or Trump. It would not make a difference who gets to power, American foreign policy being pro-Israel is there to stay.

The US, Canada and Europe will always stand with Israel and use the holocaust and anti-semitism, as reasons to morally justify anything Israel does.

The political culture in these parts of the world, has in general been uncaring about what people in the 3rd world suffer. For example, even when people criticize Israel here, they will express outrage about how 7 aid workers from WCK died, than actually talk about how 35K Palestinians have died. As AOC said in that interview wth Mehdi a week or so back, they also refer to the Palestinians in the passive voice. Its default racist narratives in the west because one group of people are sub-humans and the other more worthy of compassion.

This is very entrenched in the political narratives in western nations and is not likely to change regardless of who gets to power.

The best we can hope for is that sustained protests, will be successful in moving the needle, enough to bring about a permanent ceasefire and possibly kick start initiatives towards a longer term permanent solution eventually.

 

[Valcazar]

Did not read through everything. But on the issue of elections, I just wanted to say that I dont think there is a pro-Palestinian western leader in either Biden or Trump. It would not make a difference who gets to power, American foreign policy being pro-Israel is there to stay.

As it stands, yes.
The question is, of course, how pro-Israel and to what extent?
This has varied over time and with Administrations.

It also has varied depending on the government of Israel and what it is doing and how it approaches its relationship with the US and with specific administrations.

The political culture in these parts of the world, has in general been uncaring about what people in the 3rd world suffer. For example, even when people criticize Israel here, they will express outrage about how 7 aid workers from WCK died, than actually talk about how 35K Palestinians have died. As AOC said in that interview wth Mehdi a week or so back, they also refer to the Palestinians in the passive voice. Its default racist narratives in the west because one group of people are sub-humans and the other more worthy of compassion.

No argument.

This is very entrenched in the political narratives in western nations and is not likely to change regardless of who gets to power.

It will change depending on who is in power. But these are long, slow changes that take a long time.

The US power structure's relationship to Israel now is not what it was in the past.
That doesn't mean it isn't pro-Israel, but it isn't the same.
And the GOP relationship to the current Israeli government isn't the same as the Democratic Party's relationship to this government - even if both can be easily categorized as "pro-Israel".

The best we can hope for is that sustained protests, will be successful in moving the needle, enough to bring about a permanent ceasefire and possibly kick start initiatives towards a longer term permanent solution eventually.

Multiple levels of action is the only way these things move.
People have been protesting in support of a better situation in the region for my entire adult life.

 

[Frankfooter]

Well, your strategy is consistent at least.

You have said explicitly that the election will not stop the genocide, so I am very confused why you think what you do about my position.

You refuse to clearly state your position.

But those disapproval numbers are not only from Democrats.
You understand that, right?

Those numbers were not only from dems they were from Biden supporters. Specifically the 80% calling for ceasefire were dems and the 56% who said Israel is committing genocide were Biden voters.

Yes.
The problem you have here is that people rank the conflict fairly low on the list of things that are important to their vote.

(This is from the recent CNN poll ending last week, but these kinds of numbers have been consistent.)

View attachment 320047

And the one from a bit earlier by NBC.

View attachment 320065

So no.
I don't think it moves the needle all that much because it just isn't the most important issue to enough people to move the needle that much.

That is a completely separate issue from whether or not it can cost him the election, because distribution of votes is more important than number of votes, as you know.

That poll frames this as a war between Hamas and Israel, where its really a war on Palestinians involving the West Bank.
Secondly, the disapproval numbers are 71% and 81% for the first two demographics by age, where only old people give him even 37% approval on Palestine.

If take that general poll number and say that 7% will change their vote based on the genocide, that's enough to lose the election for Biden, given the 71% general disapproval the chances are that the people with strong enough opinions to change a vote are likely against the genocide.

That poll also says 10% of dems say there is no chance they would vote for Biden.

They may be small numbers but the election is already close enough that they are likely big enough.

 

[basketcase]

I've seen a few sets of analysis on this.

From one perspective it's meaningless for a few reasons;
- it's not coming from Hamas' heads and just a few months ago, the same guy said Hamas' goal is a state of eternal war
- it demands all refugees and their descendants become Israeli which very few want
- they won't actually disarm but simply become the Palestinian army.

A deeper analysis suggests that factions in Hamas are worried that the planning between the US, EU, and Arab league countries for post-war is close enough to reality that they are scared that they won't have any influence so are looking for a way in.

I'd like to think that even fringe Hamas factions accepting Israel's existence is progress and this could serve as a wedge to Hamas being directly involved in talks for a lasting peace but considering the violent statements from the exact same people, I suspect it's just propaganda for western, liberal audiences.

 

[mandrill]

I've seen a few sets of analysis on this.

From one perspective it's meaningless for a few reasons;
- it's not coming from Hamas' heads and just a few months ago, the same guy said Hamas' goal is a state of eternal war
- it demands all refugees and their descendants become Israeli which very few want
- they won't actually disarm but simply become the Palestinian army.

A deeper analysis suggests that factions in Hamas are worried that the planning between the US, EU, and Arab league countries for post-war is close enough to reality that they are scared that they won't have any influence so are looking for a way in.

I'd like to think that even fringe Hamas factions accepting Israel's existence is progress and this could serve as a wedge to Hamas being directly involved in talks for a lasting peace but considering the violent statements from the exact same people, I suspect it's just propaganda for western, liberal audiences.

Agreed. The default position is eternal jihad and that is probably the version being pushed in Arabic language media, as opposed to the soft sell which is used when dealing with Western media.

 

[Frankfooter]

I've seen a few sets of analysis on this.

From one perspective it's meaningless for a few reasons;
- it's not coming from Hamas' heads and just a few months ago, the same guy said Hamas' goal is a state of eternal war
- it demands all refugees and their descendants become Israeli which very few want
- they won't actually disarm but simply become the Palestinian army.

A deeper analysis suggests that factions in Hamas are worried that the planning between the US, EU, and Arab league countries for post-war is close enough to reality that they are scared that they won't have any influence so are looking for a way in.

I'd like to think that even fringe Hamas factions accepting Israel's existence is progress and this could serve as a wedge to Hamas being directly involved in talks for a lasting peace but considering the violent statements from the exact same people, I suspect it's just propaganda for western, liberal audiences.

The sticking point is the same.

Israel wants a pause in the fighting so they can get the hostages back and stop the daily protests against their government then get back to genociding away. Hamas wants a permanent ceasefire, and end to genocide.

 

[richaceg]

Good point.
The blockade is 17 years old now.
12 years ago Israel got in trouble for counting calories they'd allow in as food.

Israel used 'calorie count' to limit Gaza food during blockade, critics claim

Defence ministry files on 'avoiding' civilian malnutrition are proof Israel used food restrictions to hit Hamas, says Palestine group

www.theguardian.com

N

Good point.
The blockade is 17 years old now.
12 years ago Israel got in trouble for counting calories they'd allow in as food.

Israel used 'calorie count' to limit Gaza food during blockade, critics claim

Defence ministry files on 'avoiding' civilian malnutrition are proof Israel used food restrictions to hit Hamas, says Palestine group

www.theguardian.com

More bullshit report...there was never a blockade of food...more wet fantasies of your that Israel are committing genocide...far from it. What has Hamas done to improve life in Gaza?

 

[Frankfooter]

More bullshit report...there was never a blockade of food...more wet fantasies of your that Israel are committing genocide...far from it. What has Hamas done to improve life in Gaza?

It happened and it was reported on.
Just as Israel is starving 1 million children to death right now in Gaza.

You've been told, you know what is happening and you're still supporting it.
Denial is not an excuse.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785306612330074151

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785179761116954845

 

[richaceg]

It happened and it was reported on.
Just as Israel is starving 1 million children to death right now in Gaza.

You've been told, you know what is happening and you're still supporting it.
Denial is not an excuse.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785306612330074151

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785179761116954845

You witnessed Oct 7 and you still think Israel is the cause....turning a blind eye isn't an excuse...you know who started this shitshow...but still think they are not the problem....You can't be the aggressor and then play victim...

 

[Frankfooter]

You witnessed Oct 7 and you still think Israel is the cause....turning a blind eye isn't an excuse...you know who started this shitshow...but still think they are not the problem....You can't be the aggressor and then play victim...

Zionists started this shit show by occupying Palestine and wiping it off the maps.
Now they are child killers.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1785070674996052197

 

[Dutch Oven]

The only role for Hamas to play in a peace process is to surrender, return the hostages, and step down from power. If they do that, there is a chance for a lasting peace and some prospect for recognition of a Palestinian state.

If not, Hamas will cease to exist, and will drag the movement for a Palestinian state to their graves with them.

 

[Frankfooter]

The only role for Hamas to play in a peace process is to surrender, return the hostages, and step down from power. If they do that, there is a chance for a lasting peace and some prospect for recognition of a Palestinian state.

If not, Hamas will cease to exist, and will drag the movement for a Palestinian state to their graves with them.

Or this will be the end of zionism.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1779122781499601343

 

[mikeeman]

Over 34,000 people killed so far 72% of them are women and children a Palestinian child is killed every 10 minutes yes fax do matter

Mr Deeds, facts do matter not fax. Where do you get yours? Straight from Hamas?...so where are all the males? underground with the hostages? How many of the dead are Hamas?

 

[Frankfooter]

Mr Deeds, facts do matter not fax. Where do you get yours? Straight from Hamas?...so where are all the males? underground with the hostages? How many of the dead are Hamas?

Maybe Israel should let some human rights organizations in to count the dead and take care of the injured and sick.
Oh, but that would get in the way of starving them all to death, wouldn't it?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1784881692064309319

 

[Valcazar]

You refuse to clearly state your position.

Stated it repeatedly.

The US should be using more of its leverage than it has been willing to do to rein in Israel from what it is doing, which almost certainly consists of war crimes and may well meet the legal threshold for genocide. (Although that's a very high bar to reach.)

Those numbers were not only from dems they were from Biden supporters. Specifically the 80% calling for ceasefire were dems and the 56% who said Israel is committing genocide were Biden voters.

Yes.
Of course there are Biden voters who think he isn't doing a good job.
But you can't extrapolate your numbers on the specific issue of Israel/Palestine and say it is why his overall job disapproval numbers are so high.

I think Biden isn't doing things right at the border as well. I still overall approve of his job so far.
Most people aren't one-issue voters.

And most voters, including democrats, don't think this is the main thing they will vote on, even if they believe those things.
I think China should stop oppressing its people. Biden isn't doing anything to stop them. Not an issue I will be voting on.

They may be small numbers but the election is already close enough that they are likely big enough.

I've said that repeatedly.
The election will be decided on the margins and the distribution of votes is more important than anything else.
Small numbers in the right place can have a large effect.

But my point stands - there's not a lot of evidence his overall job approval numbers or people's specific choice between Trump and Biden changes a lot from this.
It just isn't the main issue people are voting on.
That doesn't mean it can't swing the election - of course it can.
But that isn't what you claimed.

 

[Frankfooter]

Stated it repeatedly.

The US should be using more of its leverage than it has been willing to do to rein in Israel from what it is doing, which almost certainly consists of war crimes and may well meet the legal threshold for genocide. (Although that's a very high bar to reach.)

Thank you for that statement.
I'm still going with the multiple reports, including by the UN, saying it is genocide.

Yes.
Of course there are Biden voters who think he isn't doing a good job.
But you can't extrapolate your numbers on the specific issue of Israel/Palestine and say it is why his overall job approval numbers are so high.

I think Biden isn't doing things right at the border as well. I still overall approve of his job so far.
Most people aren't one-issue voters.

And most voters, including democrats, don't think this is the main thing they will vote on, even if they believe those things.
I think China should stop oppressing its people. Biden isn't doing anything to stop them. Not an issue I will be voting on.

You think Biden's job approval numbers are high?
Its enough of an issue that it shows up in poling statements.
President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in seven key swing states, according to a new poll, as concerns over the economy, the Israel-Hamas conflict and other issues shroud Biden’s campaign.

The Emerson College/The Hill poll, conducted between April 25 and April 29, shows Trump leading Biden by four points in Arizona, three points in Georgia, one point in Michigan and Nevada, five points in North Carolina and two points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Biden trails Trump in seven key swing states a few months out from Election Day, new poll shows

President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in seven key swing states, according to a new poll.

www.usatoday.com

I've said that repeatedly.
The election will be decided on the margins and the distribution of votes is more important than anything else.
Small numbers in the right place can have a large effect.

But my point stands - there's not a lot of evidence his overall job approval numbers or people's specific choice between Trump and Biden changes a lot from this.
It just isn't the main issue people are voting on.
That doesn't mean it can't swing the election - of course it can.
But that isn't what you claimed.

It might not be, but for someone on the edge worried about the economy or something else, it could be enough to tip them over.
Certainly in the youth vote.

What's ridiculous is Biden's choice to risk his reelection to support a war criminal who would rather have rump in power.

Most see Biden’s presidency as a ‘failure’
Biden is under water in every issue asked about in the CNN poll, according to Jennifer Agiesta, CNN’s polling director. Agiesta writes:

And his worst issue approval rating – for his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza – yields 28% approval to 71% disapproval, including an 81% disapproval mark among those younger than 35 and majority disapproval among Democrats (53%).

Asked whether they view Biden’s presidency as a success or a failure, 68% of younger Americans said it’s a failure, more than other age groups – and despite his high-profile efforts to address other issues of importance to young voters, including student debt relief.

 

[Valcazar]

You think Biden's job approval numbers are high?

Where did I say that?

Its enough of an issue that it shows up in poling statements.
President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in seven key swing states, according to a new poll, as concerns over the economy, the Israel-Hamas conflict and other issues shroud Biden’s campaign.
The Emerson College/The Hill poll, conducted between April 25 and April 29, shows Trump leading Biden by four points in Arizona, three points in Georgia, one point in Michigan and Nevada, five points in North Carolina and two points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Biden trails Trump in seven key swing states a few months out from Election Day, new poll shows

President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump in seven key swing states, according to a new poll.

www.usatoday.com

It's in the news, of course it shows up in the news summary.
It isn't even a question in the poll.

Will it turn into an issue more people vote on?
Maybe.
I showed you were it ranked a week ago.

It might not be, but for someone on the edge worried about the economy or something else, it could be enough to tip them over.
Certainly in the youth vote.

Of course it could, no one has said otherwise.
You're the one who said it was the reason for his numbers.
I pointed out it isn't.
I never said it didn't matter.

What's ridiculous is Biden's choice to risk his reelection to support a war criminal who would rather have rump in power.

Yes, obviously that is exactly what his thinking is here.