Gavin Newsom the next president of the United States meets current broken down grifter of a president.

[nottyboi]

You need to distinguish between a nation and a state (and a nation-state) here.

There were nation states long before. Even the Mayans qualify as a nation state. The had culture, state apparatus, territory etc etc,

 

[Valcazar]

What sweeping changes has he accomplished?
Please explain?
A bunch of executive orders.
Many will be challenged in courts.
An executive order can be rescinded as fast as it is signed.

Yes, but since many of them are also about how to work things, four years under them will cause lots of damage.
Whether all the sweeps actually go forward is unclear, but many of the ones set in motion will be pretty dramatic in effects over time.

 

[Shaquille Oatmeal]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1883338109544550476

 

[Valcazar]

Deportations:
Deportations of illegals who commit crimes, were always ongoing.
This isn't new action by Trump although it is being presented in that way via photo ops.
I once again point to Biden deporting more than Trump did.
Obama deported even more than that. He was mocked as "deporter in chief".

But now they will be crueller and without the pretense that immigrants are people welcome in the country.
Showy public raids will keep people scared.
The internment camps will also be useful for disappearing people, and since whether or not you belong in one will be at the discretion of ICE, it will be useful for rewarding friends and punishing enemies.

Paris and WHO:
Don't see the benefit to the US other than saving some money.
It can always be rejoined as Biden did in 2021.
If there is another pandemic (unlikely) I do not think it would bode well under the current administration.

It's bad on general principle, obviously, and losing 4 years on these fronts is terrible.
Getting back into WHO will be a hassle and the USA's role as a leader will be gone.

DEI
This one is for show.
I dont believe the federal government was diverse in the first place because I read that 61% of federal employees were white, with the senior executives being 76% white. 56% were men overall and 62% were men at the senior executive level.
I dont see this changing.
DEI has very little to do with hiring/firing.
Anti-discrimination laws already exist.
DEI at the federal level is just some mandatory anti-black racism training etc.
Yeah, that will go away now.
But it is essentially a solution looking for a problem.
This can come back in a renamed format in the future when the EO is rescinded.

You are wrong about this.
The Executive order is much broader.

Ending Illegal Discrimination And Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity – The White House

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered:Section 1. Purpose.

www.whitehouse.gov

This is an attack on the Civil Right movement.

https://www.axios.com/2025/01/22/trump-dei-lbj-rollback

They just know people here "DEI" and think bad corporate training seminars.
There is a reason they snuck "A" for accessibility at the end.

For private companies, some may roll back their DEI programs, but some are holding fast.
I do not foresee the workplace and the schools being flooded with straight white men, just because DEI is rolled back because there is no way you can prove you hired any person for any of their racial, sexual orientation or gender characteristics anyway.

It is clear that part of it is counting on a cultural shift, though.
"Be your worst selves" is part of the appeal of Trumpism, and without the government backing them, lots of places will fold to the pressure.

Pardons
That one is to stay.
Count it as a win and hope those that were pardoned do not return to their criminal ways.

Again, remember he is talking about culture as well.
"Violence in the name of Our Great Leader will be protected and pardoned" is a sweeping message to send.

Culture shift and hysteria
Yup, I call it MAGA hysteria.
I already said that this is MAGA at its peak.
It will slowly go down from here.
Usually there is a lot of noise during a Presidents first 100 days and then it peters out.
These shifts you observe are usually fickle.

Maybe.
But they are pushing hard to get those culture shifts locked in with support from governmental power.
They didn't put all this work into being authoritarians for nothing.

 

[Valcazar]

I understand your analysis. Your dislike of MAGA and Trump clouds your judgement. It wasn’t like this for the last four years. There is a clear cultural shift going on and the people who live in the United States feel it. There is no photo opp happening outside the few pictures you see on the news.

It is not like the first presidency. I remember the feeling.
It was a feeling of dread that white supremecists had hikacked America and a sense fear from broader population about the economy and national safety. There is none of that happening with the exception of the fear from the progressive crowd and some women I’ve spoken to (women in NYC really despise Trump after the abortion ruling). This isn’t a prognostication or defense of Trump. I wish I could articulate this better but I don’t know how to describe the shift to Trump I’m seeing. It’s kind of bizarre like I mentioned above. I’m just telling you what I see in an area that is mostly democrat.

I don't know where you live, but I do implore you to be careful about projecting your local vibe to the country as a whole.
Also, remember the vibe is going to be different just because it is the second time around.

There was a lot of uncertainty last time.
Even the Trump supporters had a different view of what winning meant.
This time, Trump campaigned on vindication and retribution.
Of course the pro-Trump camp is far more energized by a win than last time.
He also won the popular vote, even if he failed to get a majority.
This sense of "The Country is with us!" is going to be much stronger for his fans this time around.

 

[Valcazar]

When there is economic difficulty, immigrants are always held responsible.
This has been the trend for the last 100+ years.
So this isn't a drastic and permanent shift as much as a predictable trend which will reverse and course correct on its own as the economy corrects itself.
Usually this happens every decade or so to varying degrees as economic slowdowns happen every decade or so.

There has always been a strong anti-immigrant trend in the US that ebbs and flows.
But Butler is right in that you didn't get majority support for mass deportation a few years ago.
(Now, there is some reason to believe that the support drops when you actually explain what is meant by mass deportation, but still.)

The political mood certainly feels like everyone needs to be "strong" on immigration right now, look at the terrible Laken Riley bill that just passed.

And the fact is that social media being the primary news outlet for most people means propaganda is FAR easier than it once was and is extremely effective right now.
That is very much linked to a culture shift.

Now, these things are unpredictable, and the people in charge now are bad winners prone to getting out over their skiis.
But they can and will do a lot of damage before they are done, and they are counting on that intensely successful propaganda power to act as a buffer for their fuck ups.

 

[Valcazar]

I am going by probability. The California wildfires have catapulted Newsom ahead of the pack without any other viable candidates.

That's a different claim than " Governor Gavin Newsom has his critics, but there are no other viable candidates on the horizon. "

This is just "Newsom is in the spotlight now" and then again hand-waving away any justification for "without any other viable candidates".

I'm not sure why you are so high on Newsom, but even if you think he is great, why the PR blow-job of pretending there are no other contenders?
Especially 1 week into the current administration?

It's so bizarre.

 

[Valcazar]

Jeb Bush was a shoo in too. So was Hillary in 2008 until a young Senator came along.

So rare you and I agree.
It's utter nonsense to claim someone is the obvious candidate and winner this far out.

If he wants to pitch Newsom as the current frontrunner, sure.
(I think even that is tenuous one week in.)

But "there are no other viable candidates" is such a weird take.

 

[Valcazar]

There were nation states long before. Even the Mayans qualify as a nation state. The had culture, state apparatus, territory etc etc,

That's an interesting claim and lots of historians would probably disagree with you.
But then that's because there are some competing definitions about all these concepts.

 

[dirtydaveiii]

They should ask Newsom what he's going to do about homelessness in California and his citizens fleeing the state.

He needs to build a wall and send the homeless by bus to red states where they fit in

 

[nottyboi]

That's an interesting claim and lots of historians would probably disagree with you.
But then that's because there are some competing definitions about all these concepts.

One can argue it was Egypt, or even Rome (before it became an empire) after all they had to raise and army, collect taxes, adminster property including slaves etc etc. How could one conduct massive public works projects like the Pyramids without a great deal of govt? I think claiming it was Britain or France is just like saying Christopher Colombus "discovered" the Americas.

 

[Frankfooter]

He needs to build a wall and send the homeless by bus to red states where they fit in

He's too smart to echo a DeSantis move.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1782842102801371169

 

[Valcazar]

One can argue it was Egypt, or even Rome (before it became an empire) after all they had to raise and army, collect taxes, adminster property including slaves etc etc. How could one conduct massive public works projects like the Pyramids without a great deal of govt? I think claiming it was Britain or France is just like saying Christopher Colombus "discovered" the Americas.

Oh, so you've never read into this or followed the debates on the issue.
This is just "guy on the internet has a feeling".

OK.

 

[nottyboi]

Oh, so you've never read into this or followed the debates on the issue.
This is just "guy on the internet has a feeling".

OK.

There are definitely debates and some say Egypt was the first for all the reasons I mentioned.. at 3200 BC

 

[james t kirk]

None of the current democratic fossils have a chance to win in 2028. Not Elizabeth Warren, not Gretchen Witmer, and definitely not Gavin Newsom.

But that said, it's not impossible for the Dems to win in 2028. I've said this before and I will say it again. If the Dems want to win in 2028, they need to nominate a younger charismatic southern Democrat along the lines of Bill Clinton. A guy who can deliver the south, and still win the north east and the Pacific Coast. But I repeat, none of the current democratic fossils. Winning the south gives the Dems the win.

And if there is a war with China, or Russia, all bets are off.

Also, another of my predictions, Trump dies in office before 2028. I give him 2 more years at most. Then he dies of a heart attack or stroke.