I was assuming the tie breaker was goal differential?? In that case Portugal is ahead of Finland. Let's suppose Finland beats Portugal, then if Serbia wins their last 2 games, Finland/Portugal/Serbia will all have 26 pts and I have no clue what the tie breaker is.
And if the Scotland/Italy finished 1-1, then if Ukraine beat France, Scotland and Italy would have qualified.
This is what I dug from the UEFA website:
Tie breakers
If teams finish level on points, then the winner of the match between the sides in question will finish highest, or should they have drawn, goal difference, followed by goals scored, qualifying record for the 2002 FIFA World Cup and UEFA EURO 2004™, a fair play ranking and finally either a penalty shoot-out or drawing of lots.