Election Predictions, anyone?

Aardvark154

New member
Jan 19, 2006
53,768
3
0
Asterix said:
Well I'd say 2/3 qualifies as a landslide, or if you like, a blowout. Difference of opinion. Not that it matters, because Obama likely won't win that big, but he will win with a comfortable enough margin.
The point is merely that to be a landslide or a blowout you have to win very, very big. I won't argue because as you say indeed it is a mater of opinion.

I also agree that from the media polls I see, that isn't going to be either a blowout or a landslide although the margin may well be comfortable.
 

RTRD

Registered User
Sep 26, 2003
6,004
3
0
I think the popular vote will be close...

...as close as 2%...maybe even less. But Obama will win it.

The Electoral vote count will not be as close...I am conservatively going Obama 291 / McCain 247. McCain will win the battleground states in NC, OH, FL, IN and MO...but he is dreaming about winning PA, and his most painful loss will be VA.

Obama will pull "upsets" in VA, CO, and NM.

The keys for the evening will be....

NH...McCain won this state in his primary both in 2000 and 2008...and Obama lost it in his primary in 2008, despite being ahead in the polls. Obama is up by 10 pts in the polls, but McCain still does think he can win...and maybe he knows something we don't. If NH goes for McCain, it will show that "Bradley" is definitely in the house and in full effect.

NC...This is the first of the ""upset" states for Obama...places where he is FAR more competitive than he is supposed to be. I am sure the original Obama strategy did not include a NC win...that he was campaigning there simply to make McCain play defense and spend money in the state. But...NC has LOTS of professionals and LOTS of college campuses...and the Palin choice rubs those folks the wrong way. NC is now in play, and in fact Obama has a small lead. I think Republican vote caging and the "Bradley Effect" will ultimately prevent an Obama win, but if he does, it will show that "Bradley" might not be a factor after all, and that Obama did indeed get the youth vote out...and neither of these are things McCain wants to hear.

VA...Virginia is much like NC...a "liberal" Republican state thanks to its high concentration of Northern VA professionals / yuppies and relatively high number of college campuses. Like NC, VA has elected Democrat members of congress and governors in the past...just not many Dem POTUS candidates. But, Obama is a different type of candidate...he seems to be getting the vote out amongst his base...better than any Dem previously. I think Obama will win VA...his poll lead her is large enough that it should be error and "Bradley" proof...and an Obama win here will give him the single (out of 9 battleground) states he has to win

FL...in his darkest nightmares McCain did not imagine losing FL. It is AMAZING that Obama has a lead there...so amazing that I don't believe it. So...I predict FL will go to McCain...but if it doesn't...McCain might as well give his concession speech...there exist no electoral vote math that gives McCain a win without FL. Even a win in OH AND PA (not going to happen) does not offset a loss in FL for McCain.

OH...McCain's win strategy also assumed an Ohio win...and right now he is losing in the polls. Again however, I don't think Obama's poll lead will stick...I just see too many people failing to pull the lever for Obama...and there is not a large enough minority / urban / professional / collegiate presence in the state to offset the working class whites who will fall prey to "Bradley". Fortunately for Obama, he actually doesn't need Ohio so long as he gets PA...and Biden will bring him PA. So...for the first time since 1960...the elected POTUS will NOT also be the winner of Ohio.

IN and MO are much like NC...except neither has the professional / collegiate presence to offset their rural / working class white vote count. They are both currently leaning McCain, and they will go to McCain. But, if Obama gets either one, McCain will know that he is done....not so much that the math itself will doom him, as it will point to the true direction of the country if he can't carry two states he SHOULD win, and is leading, but are "battleground".

CO and NM are the "stolen" states for Obama. These mere 14 electoral votes that he is taking from McCain are the reason he will win. CO going Obama had to have been a part of the Obama strategy all along...hence the convention was put there. This was a red state the Dems always thought was vulnerable. VA, NC, FL...those are all surprises. CO was part of the plan. Why was Obama able to put CO in play? Because the demographics of the state have changed even since the Bush 2004 win. More immigrants, added to the Denver area professionals and collegiates...have put it over the top for going blue. And it isn't even real close...Obama is up 5 pts...should be just enough to survive Bradley. NM is a total surprise...no urban presence, not much of a academic / college presence. I would guess that Obama was NOT counting on a NM win. But he is up there 7 pts...thanks to the changing demographics via the immigrant influx. The exact same can be said for NV...it just fell into the dems lap.

So...what does McCain have to do to win? He needs to steal PA...not going to happen, but he believes it can. And he has to keep Obama from winning VA...also not going to happen, but is in the realm of possibility. If he wins both PA and VA, in addition to OH, FL, (and IN, MO, and NC...and he should win all three of those), he is the winner. But he is losing in PA, VA, OH, and FL...pretty hard to see him rolling "boxcars" in all 4.


ETA: Hmmm...I had not factored in poll closing times into my thinking....Indiana closes first...results there could influence Virginia. What you'd want is a for a narrow McCain victory to inspire Obama voters in Virginia and Ohio to get to the polls....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081103/pl_nm/us_usa_politics_guide
 
Last edited:

exbrower

Member
Jan 15, 2004
260
0
16
Prediciton
Obama 52.5% McCain 46.7%
Electoral College Obama 291 McCain 244
Senate 57 Dem 2 I 41 Rep
House 257 Dem rest 178 rep and ind.
I nailed the Canadian election.
 

red

you must be fk'n kid'g me
Nov 13, 2001
17,572
8
38
i hope I am wrong but i think mccain will win it
 

danmand

Well-known member
Nov 28, 2003
46,422
4,813
113
red said:
i hope I am wrong but i think mccain will win it
I wouldn't be surprised.
 

fuji

Banned
Jan 31, 2005
80,011
7
0
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
is.gd
Obama will win Florida and net 364 EV's. (I am updating my prediction to reflect the change on Intrade).
 

Aardvark154

New member
Jan 19, 2006
53,768
3
0
MLAM said:
I think the popular vote will be close, as close as 2%...maybe even less. But Obama will win it.

The Electoral vote count will not be as close.
If so this will be perversely amusing since liberal Democrats are the ones who most frequently gripe about needing to amend the constitution and do away with the Electoral College.
 

sailorsix

New member
Sep 25, 2006
1,338
0
0
Obama wins.
Lancs uses his favourite gun to kill him.

No right wing worth his creds will tolerate being ruled by any black person let alone an elite black person.

Americans will not see a sworn in black or female President in this century.
 

RTRD

Registered User
Sep 26, 2003
6,004
3
0
Actually...

Aardvark154 said:
If so this will be perversely amusing since liberal Democrats are the ones who most frequently gripe about needing to amend the constitution and do away with the Electoral College.

...think it will be perversely amusing since it was the electoral college that brought GWB into the office of POTUS, but I suppose it it is about perspective.

Indeed...while I would be surprised...I would not be stunned if McCain actually gets a popular vote majority. If he gets a good rout in Florida and Texas, he could.

But i just do not see how he is going to win the electoral college vote.
 

Asterix

Sr. Member
Aug 6, 2002
10,025
0
0
MLAM said:
...think it will be perversely amusing since it was the electoral college that brought GWB into the office of POTUS, but I suppose it it is about perspective.

Indeed...while I would be surprised...I would not be stunned if McCain actually gets a popular vote majority. If he gets a good rout in Florida and Texas, he could.

But i just do not see how he is going to win the electoral college vote.
McCain's not going to win the popular vote, if anything the latest polls show Obama's lead expanding.
 

RTRD

Registered User
Sep 26, 2003
6,004
3
0
It seems...

Asterix said:
McCain's not going to win the popular vote, if anything the latest polls show Obama's lead expanding.

...you are right, based on what I just read seconds ago...
 

sailorsix

New member
Sep 25, 2006
1,338
0
0
from Christian Science Monitor
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20081103/cm_csm/ycurley


My wife made me canvass for Obama; here's what I learned

By Jonathan Curley Jonathan Curley
Mon Nov 3, 3:00 am ET

Charlotte, N.C. – There has been a lot of speculation that Barack Obama might win the election due to his better "ground game" and superior campaign organization.

I had the chance to view that organization up close this month when I canvassed for him. I'm not sure I learned much about his chances, but I learned a lot about myself and about this election.

Let me make it clear: I'm pretty conservative. I grew up in the suburbs. I voted for George H.W. Bush twice, and his son once. I was disappointed when Bill Clinton won, and disappointed he couldn't run again.

I encouraged my son to join the military. I was proud of him in Afghanistan, and happy when he came home, and angry when he was recalled because of the invasion of Iraq. I'm white, 55, I live in the South and I'm definitely going to get a bigger tax bill if Obama wins.

I am the dreaded swing voter.

So you can imagine my surprise when my wife suggested we spend a Saturday morning canvassing for Obama. I have never canvassed for any candidate. But I did, of course, what most middle-aged married men do: what I was told.

At the Obama headquarters, we stood in a group to receive our instructions. I wasn't the oldest, but close, and the youngest was maybe in high school. I watched a campaign organizer match up a young black man who looked to be college age with a white guy about my age to canvas together. It should not have been a big thing, but the beauty of the image did not escape me.

Instead of walking the tree-lined streets near our home, my wife and I were instructed to canvass a housing project. A middle-aged white couple with clipboards could not look more out of place in this predominantly black neighborhood.

We knocked on doors and voices from behind carefully locked doors shouted, "Who is it?"

"We're from the Obama campaign," we'd answer. And just like that doors opened and folks with wide smiles came out on the porch to talk.

Grandmothers kept one hand on their grandchildren and made sure they had all the information they needed for their son or daughter to vote for the first time.

Young people came to the door rubbing sleep from their eyes to find out where they could vote early, to make sure their vote got counted.

We knocked on every door we could find and checked off every name on our list. We did our job, but Obama may not have been the one who got the most out of the day's work.

I learned in just those three hours that this election is not about what we think of as the "big things."

It's not about taxes. I'm pretty sure mine are going to go up no matter who is elected.

It's not about foreign policy. I think we'll figure out a way to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan no matter which party controls the White House, mostly because the people who live there don't want us there anymore.

I don't see either of the candidates as having all the answers.

I've learned that this election is about the heart of America. It's about the young people who are losing hope and the old people who have been forgotten. It's about those who have worked all their lives and never fully realized the promise of America, but see that promise for their grandchildren in Barack Obama. The poor see a chance, when they often have few. I saw hope in the eyes and faces in those doorways.

My wife and I went out last weekend to knock on more doors. But this time, not because it was her idea. I don't know what it's going to do for the Obama campaign, but it's doing a lot for me.

Jonathan Curley is a banker. He voted for George H.W. Bush twice and George W. Bush once.
 

sailorsix

New member
Sep 25, 2006
1,338
0
0
Thanks to Sarah Palin, We Get to See the Cruelness of the GOP as It Really Is
By Larry Beinhart, AlterNet
Posted on November 3, 2008, Printed on November 3, 2008
http://www.alternet.org/story/105807/

It was Jesus Christ, if Matthew is to be believed, who said, "Love thine enemy." It is in that spirit that I write this belated valentine to Sarah Palin.

Sarah, I love you for having revealed unto the media the snarling heart of the beast that is the base (and the soul) of the Republican Party. Yes, you have the lipstick and the heels, not to mention the calves and bosoms, that send Republican men into swoons, but you have more; the pit-bull snarl that rouses your supporters to cry out, "Traitor!" against Obama, and "Kill him!"

George Bush kept those folks in their kennels, ran as a "compassionate conservative," and always masked his most heinous plans in double speak. Bush the Elder, Ronald Reagan, and even Richard Nixon never explicitly ran on hate and fear of "the other." They used words that were coded enough that it was possible to pretend that they were true.

But now the beast is loose.

The Republican Party likes to remember Abraham Lincoln. And so they should. It's a nice memory and brings credit to them. As does the accidental ascension of Teddy Roosevelt, environmentalist and basher of corporations. Back in the 1950s and '60s, their party included such figures as Dwight Eisenhower -- whose reputation grows ever better in retrospect -- Nelson Rockefeller, who built New York's state university system, and New York City mayor John Lindsey.

But there is another strand that runs through their history.

Back in the 1840s, there was a group called the Know Nothings. They were against immigrants and for real Americans. ("Real American" did not then, as it does not now, refer to Indians; it refers to descendants of English immigrants.) The movement was based on fear. Irish and German Catholics were going to take over. They would take orders from the Pope-in-Rome (one word). Their values were not "our values." They drank. Their nunneries were virtual brothels and when the nuns had babies they practiced infanticide.

The Know Nothings started with secret societies like the Order of the Star Spangled Banner, associated with William Poole, better known as Bill the Butcher, depicted by Daniel Day Lewis in Gangs of New York. Their public political face was the American Republican Party, which became the Native American Party, and finally the American Party.

Their platform was:

Severe limits on immigration, especially from Catholic countries.
Restricting political office to "native-born" Americans.
Mandating a wait of 21 years before an immigrant could gain citizenship.
Restricting public school teaching to Protestants.
Mandating daily Bible readings in public schools (from the Protestant version of the Bible).
Restricting the sale of liquor.

For a brief time, the American Party was wildly popular. In 1854 party membership swelled from 50,000 to over a million in a matter of months. It elected mayors in Philadelphia, Boston, Washington, DC, San Francisco, and Chicago, and won the state legislature and governorship of Massachusetts.

But there were other things going on: the Mexican War, slavery, secession, and the Civil War. The movement didn't last long and was soon absorbed by the Republican Party.

Fair is fair. Things morph and change. The Republican Party freed the slaves and tried to create an interracial democratic South during Reconstruction. The Democratic Party became the party of segregation in the South and the second home of the Klu Klux Klan. To be Republican is not to be necessarily narrow-minded and in dread fear of foreigners. To be Democratic is not necessarily to be liberal, progressive and open-minded.

But enough of being fair.

The Great Depression demonstrated that the principles of the Republican Party were bankrupt. Like most of the country. The Democrats became the progressive party, representing social justice and programs that would protect capitalism from its own worst tendencies, moving toward a vision of a perfectable world. The Republicans became -- in a very literal sense -- a reactionary party, reacting against whatever the Democrats were doing, engaged in a 60-year-long war against the New Deal.

Lyndon Johnson is the pivotal figure, both heroic and deeply tragic. The Democratic Party's dirty public secret was that its political hegemony rested on the Solid South, still refusing to vote Republican out of hatred of Lincoln. Johnson knew that if he pushed through the Civil Rights Act his party would lose the South for a generation. Or more. His heroism is that he did anyway. No, he did not end the race issue, but he broke the back of segregation.

The Republicans saw their opportunity. They pursued the Southern Strategy, wooing resentful whites with great success.

But two things happened.

Racism became less and less tenable. The generation that cherished it has grown old. That pillar of the Republican Party is crumbling.

And then along came Bush-Cheney. Like Herbert Hoover, in the process of leading the country to bankruptcy they demonstrated that the Republican Party's ideas were also bankrupt. They made government bigger, not smaller -- and more intrusive, too. They didn't oppose special interests, they were the special interests. They didn't oppose lobbyists, they forced lobbyists to join their party at fiscal gunpoint. They were militaristic on parade, but could not run a war. They could not protect the country nor punish the people who actually attacked us. Their policies demonstrated that free markets are a fiction, and real markets need more supervision than a grade-school playground.

Along came John McCain. He looked out, from sea to shining sea, from the mountains, to the prairies, in search of voters who would vote for him. All he could find were the new Know Nothings. People who, frightened of the way things are changing, want to change back to that white, Protestant place it was, oh, sometime back before 1840. America Firsters. Anti-immigrant. Anti-foreigner. Anti-elite. Anti-intelligence.

Not quite capable of running as a true Know Nothing himself, he chose someone who could: Sarah Palin. She does it well, and in so doing, shows us, clearly and simply, who they really are.


Larry Beinhart is the author of "Wag the Dog," "The Librarian," and "Fog Facts: Searching for Truth in the Land of Spin." All available at nationbooks.org.

© 2008 Independent Media Institute. All rights reserved.
View this story online at: http://www.alternet.org/story/105807/
 

Gyaos

BOBA FETT
Aug 17, 2001
6,172
0
0
Heaven, definately Heaven
Asterix said:
Hmm. You originally posted 330. What changed your mind?
I counted FL, MT, ND, MO, VA, OH, IN, NH, NM, PA, CO, and FL going Obama. I did not count GA.

I bumped it the additional 6 delegates for MT and ND. Long shot, but something tells me he might take those two (2) states too. If he doesn't then -6 in my delegate count. Therefore my prediction is 372 - 378.

As for my original 330, I just clicked that off the top of my head. Then I did the impossible, I studied the chart again and I will win again, just like Hillary (she got the most votes). In 2006, I got them all right, except TN. In 2004, I was busy jacking off and getting laid and didn't participate in the political forum, or did I, I can't remember now. We forget! We forget! LOL!

Gyaos Baltar.
 

WoodPeckr

Protuberant Member
May 29, 2002
47,043
6,051
113
North America
thewoodpecker.net
Obama WINS if all Votes are counted!

IF ALL the votes ARE counted, Obama will will in a landslide.
People are disgusted with what the GOP has done to the USA & World the last 8 years and want it CHANGED!

The GOP has other plans and means to steal yet another election.
Let's hope it doesn't happen again!....:eek:

How McCain Could Win

Monday 03 November 2008

by: Greg Palast, t r u t h o u t | Perspective
 

Aardvark154

New member
Jan 19, 2006
53,768
3
0
Mr. Beinhart is a gifted writer, however that he hasn't done extensive study on nineteenth century America is obvious in his comments on a (imaginary) connection between the Native American and Republican Parties.
 
Ashley Madison
Toronto Escorts