Still a day and a half to go, but here's what I think will happen. Obama will get as a base, 318 electoral votes. That's giving him Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada. If he somehow manages to also pull in Ohio and N. Carolina he'll have 353. Personally I'm sticking with the lower number. McCain will probably take NC and Ohio is just too volitile to figure out. 6 point Obama win nationally, 8 Senate seats picked up for the Dems, and 22+ House seats.
Election Predictions, anyone?
- Thread starter Asterix
- Start date
Obama will win Ohio by 5%. N. Carolina will be determined by early voting. Don't count Obama to win FL just yet. I **hope** he wins FL, but that state is truly fucked up. Early voting in FL is overwhelmingly Obama, so far, but that means nothing. The Republicans have to stay home and the Cubans break Hillary ranks and go Obama, then Obama wins FL.
The states to watch are Missouri and Indiana. I think you will see McCain in the lead in Missouri until St. Louis is counted (which gets counted last), the same way McClaskal won it. But Missouri will be electing a Dem Governor, so Obama might take it a little earlier. And the same thing will happen in VA, when Alexandria is counted, usually counted last, the same with Webb and Virginia is going to go with Mark Warner as their second Dem Senator. I hope they have an Obama rally when it switches from 47% McCain 46% Obama, to 47% Obama 46% McCain in Missouri. That deterimines whether Obama is President at 10pm EST or we have to wait for the West Coast to seal the deal.
By the way, AK will have a Dem Senator. Nadar could be a factor in Missouri and Indiana.
I'm going Obama 378.
Gyaos.
The states to watch are Missouri and Indiana. I think you will see McCain in the lead in Missouri until St. Louis is counted (which gets counted last), the same way McClaskal won it. But Missouri will be electing a Dem Governor, so Obama might take it a little earlier. And the same thing will happen in VA, when Alexandria is counted, usually counted last, the same with Webb and Virginia is going to go with Mark Warner as their second Dem Senator. I hope they have an Obama rally when it switches from 47% McCain 46% Obama, to 47% Obama 46% McCain in Missouri. That deterimines whether Obama is President at 10pm EST or we have to wait for the West Coast to seal the deal.
By the way, AK will have a Dem Senator. Nadar could be a factor in Missouri and Indiana.
I'm going Obama 378.
Gyaos.
John F. Kerry will be re-elected to the United States Senate from Massachusetts. Barnett "Barney" Frank will be relected to the U.S. House of Representaives from the Fourth Congretional District of Massachusetts. 
The again if anyone has a dead Cod that they'd like to ship to Massachusetts and run for office it would win if you stamp D after - Dead Cod on the nomination papers.
The again if anyone has a dead Cod that they'd like to ship to Massachusetts and run for office it would win if you stamp D after - Dead Cod on the nomination papers.
Unusually cranky this evening, aren't we?Aardvark154 said:John F. Kerry will be re-elected to the United States Senate from Massachusetts. Barnett "Barney" Frank will be relected to the U.S. House of Representaives from the Fourth Congretional District of Massachusetts.
The again if anyone has a dead Cod that they'd like to ship to Massachusetts and run for office it would win if you stamp D after - Dead Cod on the nomination papers.
Obama will take it with 312 ec votes
Dems will come close to their 60-seat super-majority but not quite make it, maybe 57 or 58.
Dems will come close to their 60-seat super-majority but not quite make it, maybe 57 or 58.
Thats been true for years (in both senses) - however this year some of the worse offenders in Congress are from the lovely Commonweath of Massachusetts. One of the more corrupt "states" in the U.S.Asterix said:
Senator Ted Stevens ...
Will win relection to the senate, but be removed by his fellow senators in the next congress. Dems will win Larry Craig's old seat in Idaho.
Will win relection to the senate, but be removed by his fellow senators in the next congress. Dems will win Larry Craig's old seat in Idaho.
Serious question: What is considered a "landslide"? The best I can find is a landslide victory (or landslide) is the victory of a candidate or political party by an overwhelming margin in an election but it doesn't really quantify it.
The following were considered landslides since the 1930's:capncrunch said:
Bill Clinton with 370 (1st) and 379 (2nd) EV's
GHW Bush with 426 EV's
Reagan with 489 (1st) and 525 EV's
Nixon with 520
LBJ with 486
Eisenhower with 442 and 457
FDR 472, 523, 449, and 432
So there may be some "landslide inflation" going on there with Clinton but the smallest in that list is 370 votes.
It looks like Obama should win comfortably, but not by a landslide, based on recent polling.
McCain wins Florida and Ohio but loses Virginia and Arizona.
Obama wins a close one. Just over 300 EV.
Obama wins a close one. Just over 300 EV.
His predictions don't carry much weight. Remember, Hillary was a shoe in for the Democratic ticket.Asterix said:
In no way would I include Eisenhower, Clinton, FDR or George H.W. Bush on that list. Now of course success as President has little correlation with "landside" look at President Nixon who lost only Massachusetts.fuji said:
Landside is a VERY overused term. There have been relatively few in U.S. history. If you take 3/4 of the states that's a landslide.Asterix said:
It think those few who are undecided will break to who they think will win, thus my 8%.. but really, how the hell do I know.Other Wanderer said:
I agree STRONGLY with a & b.
OTB
