Doom and gloom predictions....
- Thread starter Jenesis
- Start date
As has been discussed, the 8,000 is the worst case scenario. The article also quotes 2,000 as the low end and based on the numbers already starting to climb, that seems very reasonable....
Now they say that we could hit 8,000 by next month. At this point, I don’t believe them. These “models” are total bullshit in my opinion now.
Next few weeks will determine whether Ontario will see a 'normal' summer, modelling suggests
Ontarians are being warned that their behaviour over the next few weeks is critical in determining the quality of their summer as COVID-19 cases start to increase and variants pose a significant risk, according to new modelling data.toronto.ctvnews.ca
Keep in mind that there is a difference between the conclusions of the modelling and the sensationalized way the media portrays it.
Many. What's the point? The idea is to catch cases of infection and prevent further spread. Of course people in hospitals and other high risk areas will be tested more than a hermit living outside Sudbury.
The only people I can think of who would have even bothered is epidemiology twitter and I don't feel like searching through endless posts to see if someone has done it.
It's the kind of thing a good science reporter would have done back in the day but there are so few left anymore.
This Covid circus is way overhyped at this point and way too many inconsistencies and contradictions to the way things are being handled. I’ll wear my mask and do my due diligence but besides that I’m living my life as normal as ever—even booked some travels for summer . Don’t worry I won’t be coming into contact with those of you who are staying home anyway—so no biggie.
That really is what they wanted... to spread out the infections.... they predicted up to 2 years...
Did you guys actually support the social distancing experiment without understanding how many days would be required???
Look at last picture in particular; 2 years AFTER Covid detected and lockdowns + social distancing we are STILL expected to have as much as 20% of population infected with Covid
The total numbers predicted have not changed very much
The terror for flattening the curve was that the ICUs could not handle an influx of patients
We estimated that 56% (95% credible interval 42%–63%) of the Ontario population would be infected over the course of the epidemic in the base case. At the epidemic peak, we projected 107 000 (95% credible interval 60 760–149 000) cases in hospital (non-ICU) and 55 500 (95% credible interval 32 700–75 200) cases in ICU. For fixed-duration scenarios, all interventions were projected to delay and reduce the height of the epidemic peak relative to the base case, with restrictive physical distancing estimated to have the greatest effect. Longer duration interventions were more effective. Dynamic interventions were projected to reduce the proportion of the population infected at the end of the 2-year period and could reduce the median number of cases in ICU below current estimates of Ontario’s ICU capacity.
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lol just because something is too complicated for your little mind to understand does not make it any less true
For laughs by all means show us YOUR source that says covid restrictions were meant to last less than a year (as @Fun For All had inquired)
You like to randomly spout off nonsense without any basis in reality usually
Prove me wrong
Everything you posted in this nonsensical post towards me applies to you! Look in the mirror and repeat what you just posted to the &$^%@ staring back at you!
Its from CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Journal)
They have lots of stats and details on website way to much to link a single article, I was cherry picking slides that back up my point
Most of what I took is from Volume 192 Issue 19, published May 11 2020
About CMAJ | CMAJ
www.cmaj.ca
Third Covid wave sweeps across EU and forces new restrictions
A third wave of the Covid pandemic is now advancing swiftly across much of Europe. As a result, many nations – bogged down by sluggish vaccination campaigns – are witnessing sharp rises in infection rates and numbers of cases.The infection rate in the EU is now at its highest level since the beginning of February, with the spread of new variants of the Covid-19 virus being blamed for much of the recent increase.
Several countries are now set to impose strict new lockdown measures in the next few days – in contrast to the UK, which is beginning to emerge slowly from its current bout of shop and school closures and sports bans.
In Italy, authorities recorded more than 27,000 new cases and 380 deaths on Friday. “More than a year after the start of the health emergency, we are unfortunately facing a new wave of infections,” said prime minister Mario Draghi. “The memory of what happened last spring is vivid, and we will do everything to prevent it from happening again.”
From Monday most of Italy will be placed under lockdown and people will only be allowed to leave their homes for essential errands. Most shops will be closed, along with bars and restaurants.
In France, authorities have reported a similar grim situation, with health minister Olivier Véran describing the situation in the greater Paris region as tense and worrying. “Every 12 minutes night and day, a Parisian is admitted to an intensive care bed,” he revealed.
President Macron has imposed curfews and other social restrictions in several regions, and many doctors are now pressing him to introduce a national lockdown as a matter of urgency.
In Germany, 12,674 new Covid infections were reported on Saturday, a rise of 3,117 from the previous week, as the head of the country’s infectious disease agency acknowledged that the country was now in the grip of a third wave of Covid-19.
Similarly in Poland, 17,260 new daily coronavirus cases were reported on Wednesday, the highest daily figure since November. New pandemic restrictions are likely to be announced this week, government officials have indicated. Poland already has imposed tight restrictions on social gatherings, most schools are closed, and restaurants can only serve meals for delivery.
In addition, both Hungary and the Czech Republic have reported high infection rates and deaths from Covid and health officials have warned figures are likely to get worse in coming weeks.
A third wave of the Covid pandemic is now advancing swiftly across much of Europe. As a result, many nations – bogged down by sluggish vaccination campaigns – are witnessing sharp rises in infection rates and numbers of cases.The infection rate in the EU is now at its highest level since the beginning of February, with the spread of new variants of the Covid-19 virus being blamed for much of the recent increase.
Several countries are now set to impose strict new lockdown measures in the next few days – in contrast to the UK, which is beginning to emerge slowly from its current bout of shop and school closures and sports bans.
In Italy, authorities recorded more than 27,000 new cases and 380 deaths on Friday. “More than a year after the start of the health emergency, we are unfortunately facing a new wave of infections,” said prime minister Mario Draghi. “The memory of what happened last spring is vivid, and we will do everything to prevent it from happening again.”
From Monday most of Italy will be placed under lockdown and people will only be allowed to leave their homes for essential errands. Most shops will be closed, along with bars and restaurants.
In France, authorities have reported a similar grim situation, with health minister Olivier Véran describing the situation in the greater Paris region as tense and worrying. “Every 12 minutes night and day, a Parisian is admitted to an intensive care bed,” he revealed.
President Macron has imposed curfews and other social restrictions in several regions, and many doctors are now pressing him to introduce a national lockdown as a matter of urgency.
In Germany, 12,674 new Covid infections were reported on Saturday, a rise of 3,117 from the previous week, as the head of the country’s infectious disease agency acknowledged that the country was now in the grip of a third wave of Covid-19.
Similarly in Poland, 17,260 new daily coronavirus cases were reported on Wednesday, the highest daily figure since November. New pandemic restrictions are likely to be announced this week, government officials have indicated. Poland already has imposed tight restrictions on social gatherings, most schools are closed, and restaurants can only serve meals for delivery.
In addition, both Hungary and the Czech Republic have reported high infection rates and deaths from Covid and health officials have warned figures are likely to get worse in coming weeks.
Thanks.Its from CMAJ (Canadian Medical Association Journal)
They have lots of stats and details on website way to much to link a single article, I was cherry picking slides that back up my point
Most of what I took is from Volume 192 Issue 19, published May 11 2020
About CMAJ | CMAJ
They did run their model for 2 years.
Vast majority did
It was only a few covidiots who actually believed the virus would "go away" in 2 weeks of lockdowns
You can see the griping on this board trying to blame protestors as reason the virus still spread
Point of lockdown was NEVER to eliminate the virus
It was to space out how many critically ill were in hospital at any given moment
Vast majority of the deaths that did occur were unavoidable and would have happened with or without lockdowns
The only question is whether the psychological damage due to lockdowns is more/less than the damage that would have happened if the death rate was increased
(eg 100 people die per month over 6 months vs 600 people dying in 1 month; which is worse for people in general)
The point is our elected officials don't come on TV and state.
1. Of the 50k test we suspect x % are repeat tests of people who work in high risk environments
2. Small business you must close but Walmart you can remain open with no pragmatic or legitimate reason.
3. You have elected officials flying off to St. Barts for vacation with Doug only responding when it became public knowledge.
4. You have Minister Fullerton coming on TV and saying a whole lot of nothing yet she keeps her job.
5. Its always the same group of media personnel that get to ask questions to our elected officials.
Once you start connecting the dots and start asking question about dots people don't want to connect you start to lose credibility...
Its safe to say that the raw numbers our elected official present are strategic in nature and designed to scare people and may not necessarily be a true picture of covid.
Ill give you this..
How can a province of 14.5 million people have a capacity issue of ICU beds. The answer is...
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Still trying to figure out why you object to the people at highest risk of catching the virus getting tested more often.
I don't object.
The point is there is a lack of transparency when it comes to the raw numbers the gov't presents to the public.
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As they should, since the danger of uncontrolled spread is worsened with the people pulling shit.
Not really. Reducing the peak and spreading transmission out also affects total number of deaths, and that's even without the advantage of better treatments over time.
It has never been a simple trade off. And, as the piece you linked to showed, a more sensible intermittent use of shut down and response has a much better effect. There are reasons other places got it under control and then opened, with targeted restrictions when numbers rose.
I think everyone knows Ford is a Buffoon at this time
ON suffered some of the worst and longest lockdowns in the world
It was insanity
