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Damn climate change!

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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More proof, not that we need more, that you don't read articles fully. You stop at the point that you think supports your position.
No, it's proof that you continually look for a point that is different than the one I was making when I cited the reference. The article does say the pause began in January 1997 (according to Met Office data), which was my point in the earlier post.

It's similar to Groggy's attempts to confuse paraphrasing with direct quotes. Anything to try to divert attention from the reality that the computer-model predictions were spectacularly wrong.
 

blackrock13

Banned
Jun 6, 2009
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No, it's proof that you continually look for a point that is different than the one I was making when I cited the reference. The article does say the pause began in January 1997 (according to Met Office data), which was my point in the earlier post.

It's similar to Groggy's attempts to confuse paraphrasing with direct quotes. Anything to try to divert attention from the reality that the computer-model predictions were spectacularly wrong.
Sure.


Not many are not saying a pause didn't happen, just that it doesn't have the significance the denier and you want it to have. Much like the famed 1922 claim.
 

groggy

Banned
Mar 21, 2011
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I'm afraid that isn't supported by the first four paragraphs in the article.
Yes it is.

The author deliberately uses the word 'slowdown', not pause. Slowdown implies that climate change continues while pause implies it doesn't.

And again, anybody with basic English comprehension will understand that author is setting up a more realistic watered down version of your claim as a rhetoric question in order to fully debunk it at the end of the article.

You continue to be dishonest in your statements.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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The author deliberately uses the word 'slowdown', not pause. Slowdown implies that climate change continues while pause implies it doesn't.
If he was being so deliberate, why did he also repeatedly use the word "plateau"? Using cute spin doesn't "debunk" anything. The cute mention of a "slowdown" actually refers to changes that were statistically insignificant -- in scientific terms, that means no change at all.

You also missed the key question he used to set up his speculation of what might be happening:

"So the real question is where all that heat is going, if not to warm the surface."

That sure sounds to me like he is saying the surface hasn't been warming -- certainly not at all like what was predicted (and, whether the author knows it or not, not in any statistically significant way at all).
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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Not many are not saying a pause didn't happen, just that it doesn't have the significance the denier and you want it to have.
The significance is that the computer models wrongly predicted huge increases in the Earth's surface temperature.

Groggy likes to talk about the fact that 1998 was an El Nino year. But he ignores the fact the computer models predicted there would be big increases in the immediate years after 1998 and for all of the years through to the present.

The significant issue isn't the pause itself but the enormous divergence between the computer projections and what actually occurred. The predictions were spectacularly wrong. That's the issue.
 

blackrock13

Banned
Jun 6, 2009
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The significance is that the computer models wrongly predicted huge increases in the Earth's surface temperature.

Groggy likes to talk about the fact that 1998 was an El Nino year. But he ignores the fact the computer models predicted there would be big increases in the immediate years after 1998 and for all of the years through to the present.

The significant issue isn't the pause itself but the enormous divergence between the computer projections and what actually occurred. The predictions were spectacularly wrong. That's the issue.
It seems to be only significant to you and a few bought and paid scientists and non scientists. Tens of thousands of others think otherwise. We've already dealt with how so not off the mark the models were, but you keep puling it out.
 

blackrock13

Banned
Jun 6, 2009
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I take that as confirmation that you've never actually examined how the results compare with the predictions.
You would take wrong.

Those predictions were already discussed in detail more than once in past threads and I don't plan to rehash them. You've shown more than once you just don't how stats, modelling, and forecasts/predictions works so it would be fruitless.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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You would take wrong.

Those predictions were already discussed in detail more than once in past threads and I don't plan to rehash them. You've shown more than once you just don't how stats, modelling, and forecasts/predictions works so it would be fruitless.
I'm not the one who cites false propaganda claims about a "consensus" to try to defend predictions that were spectacularly wrong.
 

groggy

Banned
Mar 21, 2011
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If he was being so deliberate, why did he also repeatedly use the word "plateau"? Using cute spin doesn't "debunk" anything. The cute mention of a "slowdown" actually refers to changes that were statistically insignificant -- in scientific terms, that means no change at all.

You also missed the key question he used to set up his speculation of what might be happening:

"So the real question is where all that heat is going, if not to warm the surface."

That sure sounds to me like he is saying the surface hasn't been warming -- certainly not at all like what was predicted (and, whether the author knows it or not, not in any statistically significant way at all).

Ok, judging from this post maybe there is a chance you're not dishonest and just not bright enough to understand.

Lets look at the sentence you don't understand and quoted.
"So the real question is where all that heat is going, if not to warm the surface."

The Greenhouse Effect is basic science that all scientists agree on (even your deniers admit the greenhouse effect). The present estimates are that the increased CO2 levels are causing an increase in heat to the atmosphere of about 400,000 Hiroshima sized nuclear bombs daily. That's a lot of heat and you think it would go straight into the atmosphere and surface temperatures. Mostly it does, but the author points to new studies that show that the heat is also stirring up the atmosphere (like a kettle as it boils), this is causing more extreme weather events, bigger continent wide storms and that's stirring up the ocean. As the ocean gets stirred up (picture yourself holding a pan in the oven as you try to heat some water for your tea, as the water gets hot so does your hand and it shakes and you splash some water on your hand and think that its now cooling off), as the ocean stirs up the very, very cold water that normally sits at the bottom gets stirred up to the surface and that cools the air as it passes over the ocean.

The 400,000 Hiroshima type nukes worth of heat are still heating up our world, but they are stirring things up and splashing around the bottom of the ocean and that cooled the air a bit.

That is what the author is saying.


Now, this point also backs everything I've been saying.
What is surprising is that you still think that article backs you.
 

groggy

Banned
Mar 21, 2011
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The significance is that the computer models wrongly predicted huge increases in the Earth's surface temperature.

Groggy likes to talk about the fact that 1998 was an El Nino year. But he ignores the fact the computer models predicted there would be big increases in the immediate years after 1998 and for all of the years through to the present.

The significant issue isn't the pause itself but the enormous divergence between the computer projections and what actually occurred. The predictions were spectacularly wrong. That's the issue.

Ok, I'm glad that you are willing to concede that the pause is based on cherry picking.


We can pull apart this claim next.

First, you need to provide stats and data to make this 'spectacularly wrong' claim.
(And be warned, its easy to provide charts that show that we are within the ranges the IPCC predicted.)


Go to it, show us what you've got.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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Ok, I`m glad that you are willing to concede that the pause is based on cherry picking.
It`s actually shocking how much you completely missed the point. I`m not sure if that is mostly due to your struggles with the English language or whether it`s due to your inability to understand the science. Maybe both.


Go to it, show us what you`ve got.
Done. In great detail.

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?471227-Global-Warming-Fact-or-grossly-exaggerated

You may wish to speak to your doctor about your memory issues. It wasn`t that long ago this was all provided to you.
 

blackrock13

Banned
Jun 6, 2009
40,087
1
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It`s actually shocking how much you completely missed the point. I`m not sure if that is mostly due to your struggles with the English language or whether it`s due to your inability to understand the science. Maybe both.




Done. In great detail.

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?471227-Global-Warming-Fact-or-grossly-exaggerated

You may wish to speak to your doctor about your memory issues. It wasn`t that long ago this was all provided to you.
It was discussed in great detail, but the details didn`t show that the predictions were spectacularly wrong. Nothing wrong with Groggy`s memory on this topic.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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I understand the science very well and have been compensated nicely over the years for that understanding.
In that case, the only explanation I can come up with to explain your militant refusal to accept the results is to go back to what James Lovelock and others have been saying about the global warming movement.

"It’s become a religion, and religions don’t worry too much about facts."
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/30/james-lovelock-environmentalism-religion
 

blackrock13

Banned
Jun 6, 2009
40,087
1
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In that case, the only explanation I can come up with to explain your militant refusal to accept the results is to go back to what James Lovelock and others have been saying about the global warming movement.



http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/30/james-lovelock-environmentalism-religion
James Lovelock again? The creator of the Gaia hypothesis. You really don't give up. That short quote doesn't mean much at all. Environmentalism not a religion.

In the same interview he also said, “It’s just as silly to be a denier as it is to be a believer. You can’t be certain.'
 
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