Cuba may fall

[WyattEarp]

But back to Cuba if it does fall it won't just be a matter of sending in a couple of tankers to right things. It will fall apart, and the refugees will come. How kind will ICE be to them I wonder?

I suspect Cuban refugees would arrive in Florida regardless of how the regime fell.
You don't want the Cuban regime to rule indefinitely, do you?

I want to double back to your negative perspective on U.S. investment. It's hard to argue with idealism, but here it goes.
What kind of future economy do you see for Cuba? Subsistence farming? Or more tourism and perhaps Cuban retirees?

How do you see a Cuban economy that differs from other Caribbean islands?

It's not enough to tell us what you don't like. What are the alternatives? Or perhaps you're fine with the status quo for Cuba.

 

[Butler1000]

I suspect Cuban refugees would arrive in Florida regardless of how the regime fell.
You don't want the Cuban regime to rule indefinitely, do you?

I want to double back to your negative perspective on U.S. investment. It's hard to argue with idealism, but here it goes.
What kind of future economy do you see for Cuba? Subsistence farming? Or more tourism and perhaps Cuban retirees?

How do you see a Cuban economy that differs from other Caribbean islands?

It's not enough to tell us what you don't like. What are the alternatives? Or perhaps you're fine with the status quo for Cuba.

It's not up to me to decide. But I think the Cuban people want self determination. And then probably a hybrid socialist state with capitalist parts. I think Democratic socialism is a better term.

What they likely don't want is massive foreign ownership and govt influence. Their beaches sold off to the highest bidders. It's absolutely not an easy road.

The best thing the USA could have done was to open up relations and gradually drop sanctions. Allow for some small percentage of USA investment that likely the Cubans would have allowed. In tourism. And then gradually use some foreign aid packages to upgrade infrastructure. Mostly from Europe and other places. From there it becomes natural for a growing middle class to start demanding reform.

What they are doing now is likely to create Haiti 2.0

 

[Ceiling Cat]

Obama sought to normalize diplomatic relations with Cuba and reopen channels between the two countries. After Trump took office, many of those policies were reversed, and relations between the United States and Cuba deteriorated. Had diplomatic engagement continued, Cuba might have developed more fully as an international tourism destination and experienced greater economic growth.

Trump is a curse on America, a curse on Cuba and a curse on the world.

 

[WyattEarp]

It's not up to me to decide. But I think the Cuban people want self determination. And then probably a hybrid socialist state with capitalist parts. I think Democratic socialism is a better term.

What they likely don't want is massive foreign ownership and govt influence. Their beaches sold off to the highest bidders. It's absolutely not an easy road.

The best thing the USA could have done was to open up relations and gradually drop sanctions. Allow for some small percentage of USA investment that likely the Cubans would have allowed. In tourism. And then gradually use some foreign aid packages to upgrade infrastructure. Mostly from Europe and other places. From there it becomes natural for a growing middle class to start demanding reform.

What they are doing now is likely to create Haiti 2.0

The last sentence kind of blew any sense of reasonableness. I don't think even cruise ships want to go to anywhere need Haiti.

I don't think you really know Cuba. The government already has plenty of partnerships with foreign investment in the tourism sector. It just doesn't rise to a world-class destination because of the Cuban government's involvement. This investment isn't even new. These partnerships go back about thirty years.

Now one would think even some foreign investment in the tourist sector would stimulate periphery enterprise. The Cuban government requires everything to be small scale. It's kind of charming, but it hinders capitalism and the government still taxes the hell out of these small proprietors.

Yes, it will not be an easy road. The regime is generally inflexible and often unfriendly towards investment. The idea that this type of government can reform itself when it is about almost total control is unrealistic.

This is what I think is more likely to happen. The regime will fall one way or another at some point. It will be chaotic initially. I don't think the institutional structures that existed in Eastern Europe are as strong in Cuba. U.S. and Western aid will rush in to prevent a humanitarian crisis. As stability is restored, Western investment will flow to Cuba. I suspect the cultural ties between Cuban-Americans and the island will foster a type of Cuban entrepreneurialism.

As far as your comment regarding a growing middle class, I don't see that happening under the Castro regime. The Castro regime doesn't allow enough private ownership for a real middle class to develop and compete for influence.

 

[Butler1000]

The last sentence kind of blew any sense of reasonableness. I don't think even cruise ships want to go to anywhere need Haiti.

I don't think you really know Cuba. The government already has plenty of partnerships with foreign investment in the tourism sector. It just doesn't rise to a world-class destination because of the Cuban government's involvement. This investment isn't even new. These partnerships go back about thirty years.

Now one would think even some foreign investment in the tourist sector would stimulate periphery enterprise. The Cuban government requires everything to be small scale. It's kind of charming, but it hinders capitalism and the government still taxes the hell out of these small proprietors.

Yes, it will not be an easy road. The regime is generally inflexible and often unfriendly towards investment. The idea that this type of government can reform itself when it is about almost total control is unrealistic.

This is what I think is more likely to happen. The regime will fall one way or another at some point. It will be chaotic initially. I don't think the institutional structures that existed in Eastern Europe are as strong in Cuba. U.S. and Western aid will rush in to prevent a humanitarian crisis. As stability is restored, Western investment will flow to Cuba. I suspect the cultural ties between Cuban-Americans and the island will foster a type of Cuban entrepreneurialism.

As far as your comment regarding a growing middle class, I don't see that happening under the Castro regime. The Castro regime doesn't allow enough private ownership for a real middle class to develop and compete for influence.

The last sentence is quite a reasonable assumption. When you create a failed state to remove a dictator all you are left with is a failed state, with multiple minor power lords all trying to take control. That is likely exactly what will happen to Cuba after this if it falls.

Is the USA prepared to take full control of the island? Doubtful.

 

[geezerbuter]

The last sentence is quite a reasonable assumption. When you create a failed state to remove a dictator all you are left with is a failed state, with multiple minor power lords all trying to take control. That is likely exactly what will happen to Cuba after this if it falls.

Is the USA prepared to take full control of the island? Doubtful.

The new model for an empire is to have the leaders of countries in your pockets not to actually take over. That was you get the same effect with virtually no cost and when it all gord to shit you just move on

 

[Frankfooter]

The last sentence kind of blew any sense of reasonableness. I don't think even cruise ships want to go to anywhere need Haiti.

I don't think you really know Cuba. The government already has plenty of partnerships with foreign investment in the tourism sector. It just doesn't rise to a world-class destination because of the Cuban government's involvement. This investment isn't even new. These partnerships go back about thirty years.

Now one would think even some foreign investment in the tourist sector would stimulate periphery enterprise. The Cuban government requires everything to be small scale. It's kind of charming, but it hinders capitalism and the government still taxes the hell out of these small proprietors.

Yes, it will not be an easy road. The regime is generally inflexible and often unfriendly towards investment. The idea that this type of government can reform itself when it is about almost total control is unrealistic.

This is what I think is more likely to happen. The regime will fall one way or another at some point. It will be chaotic initially. I don't think the institutional structures that existed in Eastern Europe are as strong in Cuba. U.S. and Western aid will rush in to prevent a humanitarian crisis. As stability is restored, Western investment will flow to Cuba. I suspect the cultural ties between Cuban-Americans and the island will foster a type of Cuban entrepreneurialism.

As far as your comment regarding a growing middle class, I don't see that happening under the Castro regime. The Castro regime doesn't allow enough private ownership for a real middle class to develop and compete for influence.

americans are clueless about Cuba.
Canadians have been tourists there for a long time and there is a bigger connection, other than dissidents in Miami.

 

[Butler1000]

The new model for an empire is to have the leaders of countries in your pockets not to actually take over. That was you get the same effect with virtually no cost and when it all gord to shit you just move on

Well not new. About 80 years its been the American Empire norm.

 

[Klatuu]

A TACO Test

https://twitter.com/x/status/2025192595299643437

https://twitter.com/x/status/2025183922330452116

 

[WyattEarp]

The last sentence is quite a reasonable assumption. When you create a failed state to remove a dictator all you are left with is a failed state, with multiple minor power lords all trying to take control. That is likely exactly what will happen to Cuba after this if it falls.

Yes, that is EXACTLY what will happen after Cuba falls. You took out your crystal ball and nailed it. Again, certitude is arrogance.

I see very little in common culturally, economically and institutionally between Cuba and Haiti. The biggest commonality is geography. One can also infer that communism leaves institutions that can become the foundation for stability and then reform. It will not easy, but that is the power of capitalism once free enterprise is introduced.

I could speculate that Havana could develop like Cartagena. My conjecture could easily be more accurate than your conjecture. If you are obsessed with equity, equal distribution and public ownership the economy will continue to wallow. Private ownership is the catalyst for growth.

Lastly, I think you have set up some type of idealistic view that the regime will gradually reform itself. Dictatorships tend to break not bend.

 

[WyattEarp]

A TACO Test

https://twitter.com/x/status/2025192595299643437

https://twitter.com/x/status/2025183922330452116

If I were a betting man, I would say it never gets to Cuba or the Caribbean for that matter.
Russia is the middle of a major war. I see no upside for them to try to help Cuba.
As always, there has been some declarations.

 

[jsanchez]

Yes, that is EXACTLY what will happen after Cuba falls. You took out your crystal ball and nailed it. Again, certitude is arrogance.

I see very little in common culturally, economically and institutionally between Cuba and Haiti. The biggest commonality is geography. One can also infer that communism leaves institutions that can become the foundation for stability and then reform. It will not easy, but that is the power of capitalism once free enterprise is introduced.

I could speculate that Havana could develop like Cartagena. My conjecture could easily be more accurate than your conjecture. If you are obsessed with equity, equal distribution and public ownership the economy will continue to wallow. Private ownership is the catalyst for growth.

Lastly, I think you have set up some type of idealistic view that the regime will gradually reform itself. Dictatorships tend to break not bend.

We don't know what will happen next, my guess is Cuba would veer to the right under another general if the communist regime falls.
Let if fall if you ask me, the regime is past its best-before date.

 

[Butler1000]

Yes, that is EXACTLY what will happen after Cuba falls. You took out your crystal ball and nailed it. Again, certitude is arrogance.

I see very little in common culturally, economically and institutionally between Cuba and Haiti. The biggest commonality is geography. One can also infer that communism leaves institutions that can become the foundation for stability and then reform. It will not easy, but that is the power of capitalism once free enterprise is introduced.

I could speculate that Havana could develop like Cartagena. My conjecture could easily be more accurate than your conjecture. If you are obsessed with equity, equal distribution and public ownership the economy will continue to wallow. Private ownership is the catalyst for growth.

Lastly, I think you have set up some type of idealistic view that the regime will gradually reform itself. Dictatorships tend to break not bend.

Private ownership with CUBANS as owners is a catalyst for growth. From US private Equity?

Ask how that is going in Vegas right now.

The USA is not altruistic in these matters. Just worried about next quarter profits.

 

[WyattEarp]

Private ownership with CUBANS as owners is a catalyst for growth. From US private Equity?

Ask how that is going in Vegas right now.

I'm sorry you are confused.

Vegas' whole raison d'etre is gambling and entertainment. Vegas has gone through many business cycles and always reinvents itself.

Perhaps all the Canadians who are avoiding Las Vegas and Florida can go to Cuba. That's a win-win for Canada and Cuba.

 

[WyattEarp]

We don't know what will happen next, my guess is Cuba would veer to the right under another general if the communist regime falls.
Let if fall if you ask me, the regime is past its best-before date.

Some here see the regime in a more sympathetic light.
U.S. derangement syndrome produces some strange bedfellows on social media.

 

[Butler1000]

I'm sorry you are confused.

Vegas' whole raison d'etre is gambling and entertainment. Vegas has gone through many business cycles and always reinvents itself.

Perhaps all the Canadians who are avoiding Las Vegas and Florida can go to Cuba. That's a win-win for Canada and Cuba.

What I'm referring to is Private equity bought up the land under the casinos and has created the present overcharging going on that is driving away people. It isn't just Foreigners avoiding Vegas.

Quite simply US involvement is not always a good thing. In many cases its a bad thing. You don't want to add value, just extract it now.

Sorry Wyatt. The world is indeed changing. And you are going to find that gradually people are going to do less business with your nation. Because we can't trust you to keep your word anymore.

 

[jeff2]

I'm sorry you are confused.

Vegas' whole raison d'etre is gambling and entertainment. Vegas has gone through many business cycles and always reinvents itself.

Perhaps all the Canadians who are avoiding Las Vegas and Florida can go to Cuba. That's a win-win for Canada and Cuba.

They can get some shade on the beach without waking up at 6:00 am if they can find a way down at the moment.

 

[WyattEarp]

If Canadians weren't visiting Cuba for the past number of years they would be in a worse position without us. Many of them dig Canadians down there. Most folks I know who visit bring stuff like I did to give to the people. I just didn't really enjoy it there cause the food was too bland for my liking otherwise it's a nice spot. Their hotel industry would be in ruins if it were for Canadians.

Yeah, there's a lot of Canadians down in Cuba. When I was in Toronto, the travel agents (back in the day) were promoting Varadero packages. I've heard it's better. I don't know if the food and activities are world-class. Since we're on TERB, I'll say Cuba is okay for pursuing short-term "romance". Met some Canadian women down there who had boy-toys too. There are far better places for short term "romance" though.

I do want to say Cuba would be better off if the U.S. lifted the embargo. However, I don't think the government does a great job of managing the tourism industry. The Caribbean is a very competitive tourist market. Some islands appeal to Europeans and I don't see a lot Americans. They do fine.

 

[WyattEarp]

What I'm referring to is Private equity bought up the land under the casinos and has created the present overcharging going on that is driving away people. It isn't just Foreigners avoiding Vegas.

That makes no sense from a market perspective. There is always short-term cycles where landlords try to raise rents. The market eventually finds equilibrium. In fact, the COVID inflation shock caused some landlords to try to raise commercial rents. Landlords have expenses too higher taxes, higher financing costs and in some higher maintenance costs. We're working to find an equilibrium here on commercial rents.

In the end, the landlords need the customers to frequent the businesses as much as the operators.

Quite simply US involvement is not always a good thing. In many cases its a bad thing. You don't want to add value, just extract it now.

Over time, I have come to learn that you don't like capitalism and pretty much see evil and distress wherever it doesn't meet your idealistic expectations. People are in this very post claiming the U.S. embargo is hurting the Cuban economy. Can't have it both ways.

Sorry Wyatt. The world is indeed changing. And you are going to find that gradually people are going to do less business with your nation. Because we can't trust you to keep your word anymore.

That would actually be great for the U.S, Canada and the world. The problem is where does the globe find $1 trillion of demand that the U.S. finances. Can't say it enough, but global trade is a closed, double-entry system where every seller needs a buyer. Every trade surplus needs to be offset by an equal and corresponding trade deficit somewhere in the world. This basic law of international economics can't be changed.

A Canadian government that runs the economy for strong growth benefits everyone. It creates global demand. In hockey speak, the Trudeau govt. had been playing the Canadian economy to a tie .

 

[jsanchez]

Some here see the regime in a more sympathetic light.
U.S. derangement syndrome produces some strange bedfellows on social media.

Sympathetic is an understatement. Anti-americanism blinds many around here to all kinds of foreign totalitarian regimes
as long as those regimes are anti-american. This has existed long before the current administration and regardless of who's in charge in the US.