Allegra Escorts Collective

Canadian Dollar keeps going up

someone

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Jun 7, 2003
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danmand said:
I will leave this one to Someone.
I've already tried to explain to him why that is nonsense in another thread. It is your turn now.
 

Gyaos

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Aug 17, 2001
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danmand said:
I will leave this one to Someone.
someone said:
I've already tried to explain to him why that is nonsense in another thread. It is your turn now.
Questor said:
They have drugs that can help you with this, really. Hang in there. There is help just around the corner.
Are you rich? Let me guess correctly: No, No and No.

Gyaos Baltar.
 

LateComer

Better Late than Never
Nov 8, 2002
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danmand said:
I would imagine, that the canadian $ above parity will be fairly short lived,
now that the chinese and japanese seem to have less appatite for US T-bills.
Wouldn't that make the US$ go down even further?
 

Never Compromised

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Feb 1, 2006
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LateComer said:
Wouldn't that make the US$ go down even further?
Yes.


I'm very worried that the Chinese might decide to retaliate against the US posturing against Iran, by selling off 5% of the paper the Chinese hold. That would be enough to seriously drive the US economy into a full blown recession.
 

petitelover

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Jan 14, 2003
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The weak dollar is sad news for us Americans. On the other hand, it should be a field day for Canadians wanting to invest in the US. If I were Canadian I would seriously consider buying a second home in Florida. Strong Canadian Dollar, weak American Dollar coupled with falling Florida Real Estate prices means a great deal for someone. Don't forget my Broker fee if you buy!
 

Malibook

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petitelover said:
The weak dollar is sad news for us Americans. On the other hand, it should be a field day for Canadians wanting to invest in the US. If I were Canadian I would seriously consider buying a second home in Florida. Strong Canadian Dollar, weak American Dollar coupled with falling Florida Real Estate prices means a great deal for someone. Don't forget my Broker fee if you buy!
Those great deals are going to get much greater.:p
 

Potang4U

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Sep 4, 2006
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Big Fn' deal for just an exchange difference of 5cents going to shop in the States.

Already financial analise predict the Canadian Economy will slump around Xmas time next year and our dollar will be under a dollar.=.98c

Let's hope not.
 

danmand

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Nov 28, 2003
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LateComer said:
Wouldn't that make the US$ go down even further?
Not really. It would make the US interest rate go up (in order to attract buyers to the T-bills),
which would in turn make the $US increase in relative value (unless Canada increases the interest rate also).

"Printing" large amounts of money, as the US have done the last few years,
is inevitably followed by a devaluation of the currency (which we are seeing) and
in turn a recession caused by high interst rates.

Ask Someone for a more scientific explanation.
 
Last edited:

Meister

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Apr 17, 2003
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danmand said:
"Printing" large amounts of money, as the US have done the last few years,
is inevitably followed by a devaluation of the currency (which we are seeing) and
in turn a recession caused by high interst rates.

Ask Someone for a more scientific explanation.
Yes, except the Feds are most likely going to lower interest rates again tomorrow. I have said before that a combination of lower interest rates and super low US dollar is going to kick start inflation big time.
 

LateComer

Better Late than Never
Nov 8, 2002
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danmand said:
Not really. It would make the US interest rate go up (in order to attract buyers to the T-bills),
which would in turn make the $US increase in relative value (unless Canada increases the interest rate also).

"Printing" large amounts of money, as the US have done the last few years,
is inevitably followed by a devaluation of the currency (which we are seeing) and
in turn a recession caused by high interst rates.

Ask Someone for a more scientific explanation.
So you are saying that the direct result of the Chinese selling US bonds and T-Bills will be to decrease the value of the US$ causing the US to raise interest rates to save the dollar. This is a circular argument. The fact remains that the direct result of the Chinese selling US bonds and T-Bills will be to devalue the US$. Furthermore, the US will not have the option of raising interest rates as their economy is suffering and it would cause a deeper recession (as you stated in your second paragraph).
 

danmand

Well-known member
Nov 28, 2003
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LateComer said:
So you are saying that the direct result of the Chinese selling US bonds and T-Bills will be to decrease the value of the US$ causing the US to raise interest rates to save the dollar. This is a circular argument. The fact remains that the direct result of the Chinese selling US bonds and T-Bills will be to devalue the US$. Furthermore, the US will not have the option of raising interest rates as their economy is suffering and it would cause a deeper recession (as you stated in your second paragraph).
As I said, ask an economist like Someone.

T-Bills are sold by the treasury on an auction,
so when there are fewer buyers, the yield (interest)
would tend to go up. The US government need to
refinance the existing T-Bills out there, when they
come due, and a lot of them are in Chinese and Japanese hands.
 

Malibook

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LateComer said:
So you are saying that the direct result of the Chinese selling US bonds and T-Bills will be to decrease the value of the US$ causing the US to raise interest rates to save the dollar. This is a circular argument. The fact remains that the direct result of the Chinese selling US bonds and T-Bills will be to devalue the US$. Furthermore, the US will not have the option of raising interest rates as their economy is suffering and it would cause a deeper recession (as you stated in your second paragraph).
The US Federal Reserve sets short-term interest rates.

Long-term rates are established by the bond market.
More sellers and less buyers equals lower prices and higher rates.
 

petitelover

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Consensus here in the states is that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points tomorrow. If that is the case, Prime should be reduced to 7.5%. As I understand it, Canadian Prime is currently at 6.25%. Credit should be cheaper but there is still a "monkey on the back" of consumers - horrendous consumer debt, outsourcing of jobs, declining real estate values along with the huge amount of debt adding up for the cost of the war - yes folks, the US is still at war. Being from the States, I don't think there is a quick fix or silver bullet but I sadly think we are in for some hard times moving forward unless something is done to change the current situation. Hate to say this but from a money standpoint - Canadians should be rejoicing. America is starting to have fire sale prices in real estate - take advantage before it is too late. I wish I bought your real estate, especially in Toronto, when the US dollar yielded me 1.55CDN. With appreciation and that discount, I'd have an unlimited budget for this hobby!
 
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