For argument's sake, let's assume that these numbers remain static/ average for the next five or ten years. His current salary is just under $20 Million/year, with one more year of arbitration.
How much is that amount of production worth? The difference between what he produces and what he costs is a player's true value. This is why you don't want to be stuck longterm with a player whose skills decline as his cost increases. Think Albert Pujols with the Angels, Miguel Cabrera with the Tigers. Those teams are still digging out from the lasting effects of paying top dollar for a Hall of Fame player in his twilight years. If Vlad Guerrero averages 24 HR, 92 RBI and 71 runs scored for the next seven years, He won't be a Hall of Famer anytime soon after that. Because he hasn't shown an inclination to want the most from himself, would you expect that attitude to improve significantly, if he knew he had 10 years guaranteed at big bucks, with little or no financial incentive to reach his full potential?
Players with his body type don't tend to have the longest career at the elite level. That extra weight he's carrying can't be helping his knees any, particularly playing on artificial turf.
A big problem for the Jays is that they have almost no talent on their roster who produce much more than they cost, and the Orioles have like, ten.
On April 2, 2012, Joey Votto signed a 10-year, $225 million contract extension with the Reds, which runs through the 2024 season. The deal included the two years that remained on his previous contract and pushed the total worth of the contract to 12 years and $251.5 million—the longest active deal in baseball at the time. The deal (including the one-year team option), was the 13th-largest deal in MLB history. (wikipedia)
That contract was for 2015 -24, with the Reds buying out the 2024 option year for $7 Million.
Certainly Votto was worth every penny and more for the first three of those ten years, but he has only one REALLY good season after that, in 2021. Other than in the 2020 COVID-19 season, when the playoff pool was expanded, Joey saw no post season action during that contract extension. From 2014 - 19, the Reds averaged about 70 wins per season, and lost 100 games as recently as 2022.
