Blue Jays 2024

[Toronto Passions]

For you, I think you are naive when it comes to the business end of Baseball. There was never ANY chance that Shohei Ohtani was going to sign with the Blue Jays. Zero. That was just a hot stove league rumour designed to sell a few extra copies of The Toronto Sun to baseball fans in February.

Another take on this, is that Shohei Ohtani was using the Toronto Blue Jays as a way to get the Dodgers into a bidding war to raise the offer. Some people believe once Shohei Ohtani went to the spring training facility and heard Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro start talking with their mumbling shit talk corporate mouths, Ohtani decided to not take Toronto seriously anymore. This was actually an opinion shared on The Walk Off Podcast by my man Joel LaFlamme.

Locking up Guerrero long term isn't going to help the Jays become serious contenders during that contract.

I disagree with this. I believe the Blue Jays need him as a leader. They need a franchise player to sell jerseys. They need the face of the franchise for MLB wide marketing. Not to mention he has now shown himself once again to be an unbelievably elite talent that desperately needs protection in order. I say build around the guy and build this thing fast. I have said it before, if they do not extend Guerrero, they will be showing this franchise that they do not take contending seriously and will not spend and people will lose interest that’s all the rest of it.

Big shout out to The Walk Off Podcast. Joel LaFlamme is my brother who loves Teoscar as much as I do.

Philip

 

[mitchell76]

Another take on this, is that Shohei Ohtani was using the Toronto Blue Jays as a way to get the Dodgers into a bidding war to raise the offer. Some people believe once Shohei Ohtani went to the spring training facility and heard Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro start talking with their mumbling shit talk corporate mouths, Ohtani decided to not take Toronto seriously anymore. This was actually an opinion shared on The Walk Off Podcast by my man Joel LaFlamme.




I disagree with this. I believe the Blue Jays need him as a leader. They need a franchise player to sell jerseys. They need the face of the franchise for MLB wide marketing. Not to mention he has now shown himself once again to be an unbelievably elite talent that desperately needs protection in order. I say build around the guy and build this thing fast. I have said it before, if they do not extend Guerrero, they will be showing this franchise that they do not take contending seriously and will not spend and people will lose interest that’s all the rest of it.

Big shout out to The Walk Off Podcast. Joel LaFlamme is my brother who loves Teoscar as much as I do.

Philip

Hi Phil,

Another alternative would be to get rid of Vladdy, and get some good prospects in return. Then the Jays could try to develop like the Baltimore Orioles and KC Royals have done, with some good young prospects. This plan might take 3-5 yrs for the Jays to become a contender again, but IMHO, the Jays will still draw good crowds to the Rogers center, regardless!!

 

[Toronto Passions]

This plan might take 3-5 yrs for the Jays to become a contender again, but IMHO, the Jays will still draw good crowds to the Rogers center, regardless!!

I feel like obtaining prospects and keeping Guerrero is the way to go. I vividly remember from 1995 and beyond…. the only sellouts the Rogers center/Skydome was getting was on Canada Day- Roger Clemens versus Pedro Martinez type of thing. This thing was all but asleep until 2015. Even a 29 year-old Bautista hitting 54 bombs couldn’t put anyone in this seats. Capacity crowd of 1200 lol.


Philip

 

[Zoot Allures]

Hi Phil,

Another alternative would be to get rid of Vladdy, and get some good prospects in return. Then the Jays could try to develop like the Baltimore Orioles and KC Royals have done, with some good young prospects. This plan might take 3-5 yrs for the Jays to become a contender again, but IMHO, the Jays will still draw good crowds to the Rogers center, regardless!!

They had their best chance at the trading deadline

HIs value is going down since then as he gets closer to being a free agent

 

[shack]

Another alternative would be to get rid of Vladdy, and get some good prospects in return.

What evidence do we have that this executive is able to identify and develop prospects? Which young players have they brought up that have made a significant impact? They could very well trade for prospects and none of them work out.

Vlad is a "bird in the hand".

 

[Toronto Passions]

Vlad is a "bird in the hand".

in addition to this, I think people really need to be reminded of what it was like in this hockey town from 1995 until 2014. Most notably from 1999 until 2009. People tend to forget how dead baseball was here for so long. 2015 and 2016… With a quick rebuild from 2017 until 2020… has spoiled all of us. Guerrero is absolutely the bird in hand.

Philip

 

[tml]

in addition to this, I think people really need to be reminded of what it was like in this hockey town from 1995 until 2014. Most notably from 1999 until 2009. People tend to forget how dead baseball was here for so long. 2015 and 2016… With a quick rebuild from 2017 until 2020… has spoiled all of us. Guerrero is absolutely the bird in hand.

Philip

I recall Roy Halliday pitching here in Toronto at his peak. The crowd at the Skydome would be about 11,000, if the games were played in April, May, or September.

 

[onomatopoeia]

Guerrero is more valuable in a stats pool league than he is in real life.

How much of a raise will he need to stay long term? What percentage of the team's budget will be earmarked for him? For how many years at the end of his contract will his cost exceed his production, making him untradeable without having to bite part of his contract? Do you think Vlad would work harder at his conditioning and improving his performance, if it didn't make any difference in what he'd be paid? I just think it's wrong to build around 'home run jacket' guys. You build around serious, not happy-go-lucky players.

Consider the last few years of Albert Pujols in Anaheim, or Miguel Cabrera in Detroit. The Jays already have two more years left with George Springer at $24 Million+. He still has on field value, but significantly less production than what can otherwise be acquired at that price.

 

[Toronto Passions]

r

Consider the last few years of Albert Pujols in Anaheim, or Miguel Cabrera in Detroit.

….yeah but both of these players were in their 90s by the end of their term lol. 10 years from now Guerrero will be in his mid 30s. Pretty sweet deal.

Philip

 

[shack]

Guerrero is more valuable in a stats pool league than he is in real life.

Baseball is a statistic driven sport and the stats don't lie. Another homer last night. Vlady is a beast, the face of the team, the man to build around and there will be a revolt (AKA empty seats) if they don't keep him.

 

[onomatopoeia]

Baseball is a statistic driven sport and the stats don't lie. Another homer last night. Vlady is a beast, the face of the team, the man to build around and there will be a revolt (AKA empty seats) if they don't keep him.

The only statistics that SHOULD matter are the team's winning percentage and the number of Championships they win.

 

[mitchell76]

 

[shack]

The only statistics that SHOULD matter are the team's winning percentage and the number of Championships they win.

Maybe that has more to do with Vlad's teammates than Vlad.

 

[onomatopoeia]

Maybe that has more to do with Vlad's teammates than Vlad.

The Blue Jays have virtually no young, cheap, controllable talent. They have a poor record when it comes to drafting amateur free agents, (see post #420 in this thread). They have proven to be unwilling to spend beyond the Salary Cap limit, where Luxury Tax and other penalties would be imposed. Ten percent of the team's budget is already going to a declining George Springer, with two seasons left.

If the Jays spend large to keep Guerrero long term, there won't be much left to sign teammates who would make Vlad's stats matter in the Won-Lost column.

It's not Guerrero's stats contributions which I'm questioning, it's his attitude. He has so much natural ability that he can be good without working too hard, and he seems content with that. He celebrates with panache eighth inning home runs which reduce a score deficit from six runs to five. Locking him up long term will help sell more team jerseys and put more casual fans in the seats, but I see a day in the near future where his health and stats will decline, and there would be zero chance of moving him while a long guaranteed contract was in force. His kind of body tends to break down at a younger age, and playing more than half of the season on artificial turf, (including road games in Tampa Bay), isn't going to do his knees any favours.

Imagine this: if Guerrero was currently a member of the Washington Nationals, would you be as enthusiastic about acquiring him as a free agent after next season?

Toronto sports fans ALWAYS over value home squad players, regardless of the sport. Torontonians who stock their Fantasy League teams with Maple Leafs, Blue Jays or Raptors rarely finish in the money, because they overpay, based on familiarity, sentimentality, and a less than average amount of common sense when drafting or bidding at auction.

Locking up Guerrero long term would, I believe, ensure that the Jays will be a mid pack team for the full length of the contract, and Vlad might be content to be a part of that scenario.

 

[shack]

The Blue Jays have virtually no young, cheap, controllable talent. They have a poor record when it comes to drafting amateur free agents, (see post #420 in this thread). They have proven to be unwilling to spend beyond the Salary Cap limit, where Luxury Tax and other penalties would be imposed. Ten percent of the team's budget is already going to a declining George Springer, with two seasons left.

If the Jays spend large to keep Guerrero long term, there won't be much left to sign teammates who would make Vlad's stats matter in the Won-Lost column.

So if they dump Vlad who will they get that is young and controllable and an impact player? As I mentioned earlier, the Jays have shown almost zero propensity to identify and develop young talent. Maybe I'm mistaken but in the last 9 years, what great young talent have they picked up either via the draft or via getting prospects from other teams that have made a significant impact? IMO, there's no reason to expect that they will suddenly become the new Branch Rickey or even the new Tampa executive team in that regard. They have no track record of having this ability.

BTW, what is the Jays budget? Do we know how much they are willing to spend or are we simply speculating? They were definitely over the tax threshold before all of their trades, so ownership is NOT cheap and are among the richest owners in MLB. Since AA left, I believe that their payroll has increased by over 50%. (They will spend. see below)

If not having enough to spend on other players is a concern, just watch how much revenue they will lose if they let him go. Did they spend all that money on renovations ($400M?) to have empty seats, sell less jerseys and be able to command less advertising revenue because of lower viewership. They want a ROI and soon. They will be forced to spend money, whether they like it or not. Shappy wants to keep his job and will try to weasel as much money as possible out of Teddy Boy. He is on the hot seat and is desperate to field a winning team next year.

In theory there is merit to your approach but there is a reality in the here and now that they have to deal with. And that reality is having to continue to generate revenue for next year. Trading Vlad for prospects will not accomplish that. He is the one and only building block that they have and 25 is still very young.

BTW, Vlady has a great attitude, plays all out on every play, even in meaningless games, is the clear leader of the team on and off the field and has the respect of every other player. He's the best player because he works and plays the hardest. Unfortunately he likes to laugh and smile and engage with other players, but it is a mistake to interpret that as a bad or lax or immature attitude. He rose to instant notoriety but then backslid significantly. He has worked hard and learned a lot about himself as demonstrated by his enormous numbers over the last 2-3 months and I think that will stay with him. I can't envision him backsliding again.

VLADDY IS A BEAST.

 

[mitchell76]

So if they dump Vlad who will they get that is young and controllable and an impact player? As I mentioned earlier, the Jays have shown almost zero propensity to identify and develop young talent. Maybe I'm mistaken but in the last 9 years, what great young talent have they picked up either via the draft or via getting prospects from other teams that have made a significant impact? IMO, there's no reason to expect that they will suddenly become the new Branch Rickey or even the new Tampa executive team in that regard. They have no track record of having this ability.

BTW, what is the Jays budget? Do we know how much they are willing to spend or are we simply speculating? They were definitely over the tax threshold before all of their trades, so ownership is NOT cheap and are among the richest owners in MLB. Since AA left, I believe that their payroll has increased by over 50%. (They will spend. see below)

If not having enough to spend on other players is a concern, just watch how much revenue they will lose if they let him go. Did they spend all that money on renovations ($400M?) to have empty seats, sell less jerseys and be able to command less advertising revenue because of lower viewership. They want a ROI and soon. They will be forced to spend money, whether they like it or not. Shappy wants to keep his job and will try to weasel as much money as possible out of Teddy Boy. He is on the hot seat and is desperate to field a winning team next year.

In theory there is merit to your approach but there is a reality in the here and now that they have to deal with. And that reality is having to continue to generate revenue for next year. Trading Vlad for prospects will not accomplish that. He is the one and only building block that they have and 25 is still very young.

BTW, Vlady has a great attitude, plays all out on every play, even in meaningless games, is the clear leader of the team on and off the field and has the respect of every other player. He's the best player because he works and plays the hardest. Unfortunately he likes to laugh and smile and engage with other players, but it is a mistake to interpret that as a bad or lax or immature attitude. He rose to instant notoriety but then backslid significantly. He has worked hard and learned a lot about himself as demonstrated by his enormous numbers over the last 2-3 months and I think that will stay with him. I can't envision him backsliding again.

VLADDY IS A BEAST.

Yes, but even if the Jays re-sign Vladdy to a long-term contract, the Jays won't make the playoffs for the next couple of years, anyway!!

 

[shack]

Yes, but even if the Jays re-sign Vladdy to a long-term contract, the Jays won't make the playoffs for the next couple of years, anyway!!

Quite possibly true. But keeping him, gives them more credibility with the fan base, helps ownership maximize revenue, and keeps Shapeero's job for another year.

Shapeero has been an abject failure in terms making this team a perennial contender, as stated, was his goal.

 

[tml]

Interesting fact from the Blue Jay tv broadcast team during Tuesday nights game. There have been 177 players this year that have played their first MLB game who are older than Vladdy.

 

[onomatopoeia]

I can't see a scenario where the Blue Jays can afford Vlad Guerrero's asking price as a free agent AND have enough left in the team budget to build a winning team around him.

Even with the trade deadline acquisitions, their farm system is among the worst in MLB. The starting pitching is aging, expensive, and declining. Gausman and Bassitt's contracts will expire before the Jays can rid themselves of the millstone of George Springer's contract. Rogers' Nickel-and-diming of Guerrero during his arbitration years will push up his asking price that much more. Bo Bichette has indicated that he's likely to skip town at the earliest possible date.


Toronto Blue Jays payroll table.

The Jays have $217 Million of salary commitment in 2024, but arguably they have much less than $217 million worth of talent. They have a few minor bargains at the lower end of the salary scale, but players like Gausman and Bassitt are being paid at 'near par', meaning that their on-field value is comparable to their cost. They appear to be too old to be extension candidates. You don't contend with a starting rotation of third and fourth starters, with a poor bullpen, when the focus of the team is on pitching and defense..

Major League Baseball Luxury Tax

The Blue Jays paid $5.5 Million in Luxury Tax in 2023.

Rogers has demonstrated in all facets of their corporate holdings that generating revenue is their primary concern. Their telecommunications products are always overpriced and average in quality. They also don't seem willing to spend several consecutive years at the bottom of the standings in order to have a shot at several years thereafter as a serious contender.

Notable: The Jays tend to use their top draft picks to add starting pitchers, who have tended to require Tommy John surgery, often before reaching the Majors. Mike Elias, General Manager of the Baltimore Orioles since 2019, has used all of his top draft picks to select hitters, usually younger high schoolers as opposed to College Juniors. He's done well:

2019: Adley Rutschman, (1): On track for Hall of Fame career.
2020: Heston Kjerstad, (5): Former top 5 overall Major League prospect, currently on Orioles ML roster.
2021: Colton Cowser, (19): Former top 10 overall Major League prospect, currently on Orioles ML roster.
2022: Jackson Holliday, (1): Current #1 Major League prospect.

The Orioles were 100 game losers in each of 2018, 2019, and 2021, (2020 being the shortened COVID season). You don't get to draft players like that when the team is middle-of-the-pack year after year, and contending for a possible Wild Card spot IS middle of the pack.

 

[mitchell76]