Blue Jays: 2015 edition

[Insidious Von]

Some pitchers take longer to mature, so I'm keeping the faith with Hutch. His delivery is too elaborate. He looks like Juan Guzman out there, but he doesn't have the WS winner's brute strength. If he can tighten up his delivery he can control his fastball better and be able to change speed. As of now opposing batters can grip it and rip it on him.

 

[DanJ]

I told you already Costanza, how much runs a team scores evens out over one or many more seasons.

Oh dear Hutch :-(

"I feel like they got it right. Felix, I thought he deserved it, even though he didn't have a lot of wins. You can't really control all that. You can't control the offense and the hitters and stuff like that."

David Price, after Felix wins Cy Young with a 13-12 record.

 

[mandrill]

Yeah. Look at a guy like Buehrle. He manages to get by on barely more than 7 runs per game of support.

Buehrle has an ERA of about 3.50 last time I checked. He doesn't need those 7 runs. Hutch does.

 

[shack]

Buehrle has an ERA of about 3.50 last time I checked. He doesn't need those 7 runs. Hutch does.

Yeah. I know.

But Buehrle's run support is the 4th highest in the AL anyways.

 

[mandrill]

Yeah. I know.

But Buehrle's run support is the 4th highest in the AL anyways.

In the "top ten" wins category of AL pitchers, Buehrle's ERA is a notch behind the true superstars like Archer, Sonny Grey, Price, etc. Those dudes all have ERA's under 3.00!!!! (Unheard of in any prior MLB season for so many starters to have that kind of ERA. The game is truly in major flux right now with the prevalence of pitching and defence).

Buehrle is an extremely competent pitcher. Eovaldi of NYY has 11 wins and an ERA of well over 4.00. Sort of a Bronx mini version of Hutch.

If Estrada keeps winning, he will also move into Buehrle territory in ERA and W-L.

My increasing concern w Hutch is that he used to have games where he was brilliant and games where he was awful. Now he has innings where he is brilliant and games where he is awful. It should be progressing the other direction.

 

[AK-47]

Would this work better for you, AK:

A pitcher's Win/Loss record is vastly overrated as a prime/key statistic for establishing a pitcher's worth.
It does however still have some value in determining said worth.

I'd say in a minority of cases, you would be right.
But in the majority of cases you would be wrong.
In the case of Hutchison you would be right.

But its interesting and telling you guys should cite Hutch as an example, since he arguably pitches for the highest scoring Blue Jay team ever assembled.

You are trying to make your point by using a statistical anomaly as evidence since the Jays havent had an offensive powerhouse like this since 1977 (honorable mention 1992/1993).

Like I said earlier you cant refute a theory by its exceptions.

If you think I'm wrong then please give us a list of Hall of Fame starting pitchers who have a poor (or losing) W/L record.

Without googling it, I can't even think of one

 

[Perry Mason]

Like I said earlier you cant refute a theory by its exceptions.

Yes you can! And it happens quite frequently.

If the exceptions undermine the basic foundation of the theory, the theory falls.

In fact, when theories fall, it is usually because the exceptions overwhelm it.

Perry

 

[AK-47]

Except in this case the exceptions are not overwhelming it

 

[gcostanza]

I'd say in a minority of cases, you would be right.
But in the majority of cases you would be wrong.
In the case of Hutchison you would be right.

But its interesting and telling you guys should cite Hutch as an example, since he arguably pitches for the highest scoring Blue Jay team ever assembled.

You are trying to make your point by using a statistical anomaly as evidence since the Jays havent had an offensive powerhouse like this since 1977 (honorable mention 1992/1993).

Like I said earlier you cant refute a theory by its exceptions.

If you think I'm wrong then please give us a list of Hall of Fame starting pitchers who have a poor (or losing) W/L record.

Without googling it, I can't even think of one

First, you're making a claim, back it up.
Second, what constitutes a poor W/L record, below .550 winning percentage?
Establish some parameters.

Lastly, the Blue Jays had an offensive powerhouse in 1977?

 

[mandrill]

Depends how you spin it, I guess. Back when Jack Morris pitched for the Jays and had an average ERA and an excellent W-L record, media informed us that Jack was simply an old fox who altered his style of pitching to suit the offence backing him up. If he was staked to a lead, he would pitch to contact and bull his way through the game. I believed it; although in retrospect, Jack was towards the end of his career and may simply not have been a great pitcher anymore.

Today there are evidently excellent pitchers (like CWS Sale) who have shitty W-L and excellent ERA and other stats. So W-L definitely doesn't apply there as a significant stat.

This season, there are huge discrepancies between the offensive power of respective teams. Oakland and TB are eunuchs. Yanks and Jays are powerhouses. And teams like LAA have a couple of studs and a lot of filler. Those discrepancies can make W-L a lot less significant. As was said, if Hutch pitched for TB, he could be 2-10 at this point.

In an era of offensive near-parity, W-L is a decent indicator of whether a pitcher "gets the job done". Nowadays, it may not mean that much at all.

 

[Dawgger]

Depends how you spin it, I guess. Back when Jack Morris pitched for the Jays and had an average ERA and an excellent W-L record, media informed us that Jack was simply an old fox who altered his style of pitching to suit the offence backing him up. If he was staked to a lead, he would pitch to contact and bull his way through the game. I believed it; although in retrospect, Jack was towards the end of his career and may simply not have been a great pitcher anymore.

Today there are evidently excellent pitchers (like CWS Sale) who have shitty W-L and excellent ERA and other stats. So W-L definitely doesn't apply there as a significant stat.

This season, there are huge discrepancies between the offensive power of respective teams. Oakland and TB are eunuchs. Yanks and Jays are powerhouses. And teams like LAA have a couple of studs and a lot of filler. Those discrepancies can make W-L a lot less significant. As was said, if Hutch pitched for TB, he could be 2-10 at this point.

Oakland is plus 32, one of 7 American league teams on the plus side.

 

[Perry Mason]

Except in this case the exceptions are not overwhelming it

Easy to say...

Now, prove it!

Perry

 

[gcostanza]

Easy to say...

Now, prove it!

Perry

I'm sure he'll document his findings immediately after his crack team of investigators
finish their detective work on the New York Yankees PED situation.

 

[mandrill]

Oakland is plus 32, one of 7 American league teams on the plus side.

Oops, bad example. But the overall point remains.

 

[Nad Smith]

ok..all together now...Hutch has an extraordinary w-l record because of the great run support and not cuz he has pitched like a 10-2 pitcher. The great ones have great w-l records...Price, Greinke, Kershaw, Keuchel (sp) and pitchers from the past Koufax, Gibson, Guidry etc.......

In other words over time the w-l record is meaningful for starting pitchers

Meaningless for closers by the way since they rarely have an opportunity to post a W as they pitch with leads

In the early sixties, a relief pitcher won 18 games.....can you name him? He was a buccaneer

 

[Perry Mason]

I heard it said that AA is still looking to make one or more trades... I hope one of them is to get Hutch out of the rotation.

I like Hutch and I believe he has a lot of talent, but (as I said before) he is in nearly desperate need of a sports shrink. The only explanation for his shitty performance is that he is really fucked up between his ears... which is what I see on his face when they show a close up of it.

I shudder to think about it but he reminds me of Romero!

Perry

 

[SkyRider]

A pitcher's W-L record is as meaningless as a goalie's W-L record. When Gump Worsley played for the Rangers he was a lousy goalie then he was traded to the Canadiens and became a superstar.

 

[AK-47]

ok..all together now...Hutch has an extraordinary w-l record because of the great run support and not cuz he has pitched like a 10-2 pitcher. The great ones have great w-l records...Price, Greinke, Kershaw, Keuchel (sp) and pitchers from the past Koufax, Gibson, Guidry etc.......

In other words over time the w-l record is meaningful for starting pitchers

Meaningless for closers by the way

Spot on

 

[shack]

That would be great. Otherwise, ride the storm out until (fingers crossed) Stroman is back in the lineup and replaces Hutch.

Depending on the severity of the storm, the Jays could fall too far back by the time Stro returns.

At this time of the year a 5 game losing streak or losing 8 of 10 could kill any chances. We need to minimize the risk of even a mini-slump.

 

[busterhut]

Depending on the severity of the storm, the Jays could fall too far back by the time Stro returns.

At this time of the year a 5 game losing streak or losing 8 of 10 could kill any chances. We need to minimize the risk of even a mini-slump.

I'm not seeing the storm. They have 4 starters pitcning well. The weak spot in the rotation has a record of 10-2. I know 10-2 is difficult to overcome, but maybe they can hold on tight.
Interesting question-if a pitcher is 10-2, why would you be desperately trying to replace him in the rotation? What if he was 12-2? Or 9-5? At what point does a 5th starter with a winning record become a liability? Ever?