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Biden Will Drop Out Of 2024 Race—And This Is What May Happen Next: Steve Forbes

dirtydaveiii

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What does a VP do anyway other than standby and hope the president doesn't survive his colonoscopy ?
 

dirtydaveiii

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You are being very charitable.
To my knowledge, Russia has illegally helped him
and no one can say whether he would have won it without that help.
He was also found guilty of 34 felonies involving election fraud
 
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dirtydaveiii

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You are being very charitable.
To my knowledge, Russia has illegally helped him
and no one can say whether he would have won it without that help.
You forgot Mueller saying he was investigating Hillary, trumps election interference, wikileaks, Bannon, having a wife, camebridge analytica spying on Americans and Donnie having 0 felony convictions and not found liable for sexual assault and fraud to go along with the Russian propaganda. None of those things will happen this time around
 

WyattEarp

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He was also found guilty of 34 felonies involving election fraud
I'm not sure I can follow your script. I believe Trump was actually convicted of the felony of misclassifying expenses that covered up another crime. This was the all too convenient explanation repeatedly given during the trial by liberal pundits and repeated here. It always was a legal contortion.

We are now left with questions going into appeal. Was Trump fairly and reasonably tried on a specific crime that the NY prosecutor used to trigger the misclassification felony.

Precedence tells us a lot of things. First, Federal campaign finance law is a Federal matter not a State matter. Second, no Federal prosecutor has been able to convict anyone on a "hush money" payment surrounding an election. Third, it's unclear even if one believes the hush money payment to be a federal crime does it rise to a felony or does it amount to a misdemeanor with some fines. This is how Federal campaign violations are typically adjudicated.

Now let's get down to the messy business of where this goes from here. My opinion is that this is now an albatross for the Democrats. Does Trump gets sentenced to jail? If Trump merely gets probation, will non-aligned voters throw their hands up and say "all that time and money spent for that!!"

See the problem for Dems. The only people really satisfied with the verdict were always going to be Biden voters. I don't think there will be a big enough bump for Biden if Trump gets probation.
 

WyattEarp

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You could be right. I won't speculate. But, at the same time....are the recordings necessary? Trump didn't allow the release of his depositions from the Mueller report, which seems like a much bigger issue....
Did any House Committee ask for the tapes of Trump's deposition? I don't recall anyone in Trump's Administration not allowing release of the Mueller deposition tapes.

It's a good point if you can actually source this past event.
 

dirtydaveiii

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I'm not sure I can follow your script. I believe Trump was actually convicted of the felony of misclassifying expenses that covered up another crime. This was the all too convenient explanation repeatedly given during the trial by liberal pundits and repeated here. It always was a legal contortion.

We are now left with questions going into appeal. Was Trump fairly and reasonably tried on a specific crime that the NY prosecutor used to trigger the misclassification felony.

Precedence tells us a lot of things. First, Federal campaign finance law is a Federal matter not a State matter. Second, no Federal prosecutor has been able to convict anyone on a "hush money" payment surrounding an election. Third, it's unclear even if one believes the hush money payment to be a federal crime does it rise to a felony or does it amount to a misdemeanor with some fines. This is how Federal campaign violations are typically adjudicated.

Now let's get down to the messy business of where this goes from here. My opinion is that this is now an albatross for the Democrats. Does Trump gets sentenced to jail? If Trump merely gets probation, will non-aligned voters throw their hands up and say "all that time and money spent for that!!"

See the problem for Dems. The only people really satisfied with the verdict were always going to be Biden voters. I don't think there will be a big enough bump for Biden if Trump gets probation.
So your part of the looney right who thinks his 34 felony convictions don't count because it might be successfully appealed ? Dream on. Republicans charged John Edward's with exactly the same thing but Edward's got off because he didn't pay off the woman before the election it was after and he wasn't caught specifically saying he needed to pay her off before the election. I don't understand how you right wingers wi t accept anything revealed about Trump. His fraud in NY doesn't count his rape doesn't count and now his 34 felony conviction doesn't count because you don't like the result just like the 2020 election results. It has been proven in court several times that Trump is a fraud, a rapist and has committed several felonies. He will most certainly be convicted of his other felonies if they ever reach court.
 

dirtydaveiii

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Did any House Committee ask for the tapes of Trump's deposition? I don't recall anyone in Trump's Administration not allowing release of the Mueller deposition tapes.

It's a good point if you can actually source this past event.
Why would they need to Trump showcases his dementia every day. His cult say he is just joking or pretending but everyone knows the truth
 
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WyattEarp

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OK, so you're telling me that Trump is firing on all cylinders? Sure as fuck doesn't seem like it. He constantly makes gaffes and mistakes in his speeches, but his enablers and the right-wing media down play it as jokes or that he did it on purpose. Plus, the right LOVES to use doctored or out of context video of Biden to make him look infirm or slow. I guess we'll see who has vitality, stamina and competence at the debate...
Why would anyone think a 78 year old is firing on all cylinders? That would seem to be unrealistic.

Biden will certainly have his opportunity at the debate. I'm guessing he does okay there. The challenge for Biden is to keep up the pace during the next five months of the campaign. The reduced level of campaigning in 2020 was an anomaly. I'm fairly certain Trump will be traversing the country extensively. The contrast probably won't be helpful for Biden.

You have to allow for some reality into your arguments. As I said, voters can gauge who seems to have vitality and stamina. It's a real issue for Biden, but I don't think it's "thee" issue. Biden needs to get out there. He needs to sell his policies and plans for the future. Simply having Biden and his surrogates attacking Trump probably isn't enough of a strategy.

It's always easier for the Presidential challenger to mount a campaign against the current Administration and its policies when the mood of the country is apprehensive. If you don't believe me, just wait for the next electoral challenge to Trudeau and Liberal party leadership.
 
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WyattEarp

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So your part of the looney right who thinks his 34 felony convictions don't count because it might be successfully appealed ? Dream on. Republicans charged John Edward's with exactly the same thing but Edward's got off because he didn't pay off the woman before the election it was after and he wasn't caught specifically saying he needed to pay her off before the election.
You seem to sincerely believe what you posted about John Edwards. It's possible you were following a pundit hack and were deliberately misled.

Edward's friends were actively paying Edward's mistress and putting her up out of sight in a very comfortable fashion during the 2008 campaign. In fact as far as your perception of election fraud, Edward's former campaign manager claimed paternity during the campaign. Edward's former campaign finance manager was also being paid by a wealthy Edward's supporter.

Sure, the cases aren't exactly the same. They never are. However, there are enough similarities to show how difficult it is for the Federal govt.to bring campaign finance cases of this nature forward. The personal overlaps with the campaign.

As far as Trump saying he needed to pay her off before the election, I believe Ms. Daniels and her attorney were dictating the timeline not Trump. Of course, Trump's reputation benefits as related to the campaign but also for personal reasons.
 
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Butler1000

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I wanted to separately address real estate. Unlike 2008, the issue is that the supply of houses has not kept up with population growth. Actually, you can point to the 2008-2010 real estate crisis for this lack of supply as homebuilders pulled back or disappeared.

There is always a lot churning under the surface in real estate. Baby boomers should downsize, but aren't. The Fed fighting inflation is keeping mortgage rates high. Young people can't afford housing. All these issues will transmit into the market, but probably very slowly.

Meanwhile, you always have three forces under sail for U.S. real estate.

1) We have 3% inflation (not to mention recent high inflation) and Fed tries to operate with 2% inflation. Compounded inflation is an underpinning for all types of assets.
2) Government tax policy still favors real estate with the mortgage interest deduction. The cap looks like it might be raised at some point soon.
3) Americans for whatever reason love big houses. The older they get the more they generally reject apartment and condo living. There are exceptions to be sure, but this seems to be a consistent cultural phenomenon. It could always reverse, but not seeing it.

There are always cyclical forces that are transitory in nature. I could paint a picture where real estate has a decline this year and part of next. However, when the Fed reduces rates and the economy begins to recover (it' slowing down) real estate will also recover.
Florida condos and many properties are about to collapse due to local factors. Las Vegas is about to go into a bust cycle. And the banks aren't loaning easily. Add on crappy construction, huge consumer debt, and a cascade is coming.

The correction for the economy is coming.
 

Butler1000

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Tell me how she's a failure? And, please, let me know what accomplishments other VPs did? Pence only kissed Trump's ass and Cheney basically operated like the President, having more sway than any other VP (so I think that's fair game for criticism). And, you never heard shit about Al Gore or Biden when they were VPs. Dan Quayle...well, he got slammed for spelling, and that whole Murphy Brown faux pas about single mothers....

The point here is that Harris hasn't said anything stupid in the press like Quayle, nor has she overstepped her mandate like Cheney. But it seems the right are laser focused on her. At the very least, they are trying to discredit her through innuendo, saying she's unliked or incompetent....but only having anonymous sources or having no evidence. Now, I'm not saying she is the greatest politician or would be a great president....but again, I think the scrutiny she faces is mostly unprecedented outside of Cheney....and again, because his role in the executive branch was much larger than any other VP.
Failure is doing nothing and looking bad while doing it. But for the first time in awhile a place holder isn't good enough. People are going to look hard at her and her leadership qualities. Her ability to project American Foreign policy. Her ability to actually use the Military for USA interests.

People forget one of the President's jobs is the kill people. To literally sign the papers authorizing deaths on foreign soil. Its what ages them. And to also, through diplomatic language, threaten other nations to keep the USA as the #1 nation. While simultaneously project empathy(stick and carrots). And as the self proclaimed world's policeman to do the things neccessary.

She doesn't have the charisma, force projection, It factor, to do it. Its that simple. She would be one of the weakest Presidents ever. With the world questioning her decision-making, and her own nation not trusting her.

This can lead to two things. Underperformance which leads to a leadership vacuum, or perhaps worse, a lack of forethought leading to bad decisions that escalate things. On the world stage. And within the nation.

Look at her approvals. People don't trust her.
 

Butler1000

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Every country has a leader it deserves
I disagree. Sometimes they get leaders thrust upon them. The last three elections are very real proof. Two bad choices because of a bad system with bad players make good decisions impossible.
 

mjg1

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Biden thinks hes the wizard of oz most of the time. Has no idea hes leading the most powerful (but declining) country in the world.
Old Joe could be in a coma and I would still vote for him rather than the MAGA cult messiah and his cabal of right-wing fascists & grifters!

A vote for dumb Donald is a vote for MTG, Steve Bannon, Michael Flynn, Jared Kushner, Stephen Miller and so now....fascists, grifters and fools.
 

WyattEarp

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May 17, 2017
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Florida condos and many properties are about to collapse due to local factors. Las Vegas is about to go into a bust cycle. And the banks aren't loaning easily. Add on crappy construction, huge consumer debt, and a cascade is coming.

The correction for the economy is coming.
Real estate is always cyclical. It tends to follow the business cycle. Some areas are overbuilt and will take time to absorb inventory. Florida condo associations have balance sheet issues which is isolated to specific poorly run buildings with low reserves. It's not an overall market condition.

It's not like 2008 at all. Owners have paid much higher downpayments. Thus they have skin in the game. Rents to property values are healthy. In 2008, it was so crazy rents weren't even coming close to covering ownership costs.

The real problem is commercial real estate which has structural issues in many cities.
 

K Douglas

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Room 112
Old Joe could be in a coma and I would still vote for him rather than the MAGA cult messiah and his cabal of right-wing fascists & grifters!

A vote for dumb Donald is a vote for MTG, Steve Bannon, Michael Flynn, Jared Kushner, Stephen Miller and so now....fascists, grifters and fools.
This right here is why you can't have a substantive debate with a left wingnut.
 

K Douglas

Half Man Half Amazing
Jan 5, 2005
28,538
9,628
113
Room 112
I wanted to separately address real estate. Unlike 2008, the issue is that the supply of houses has not kept up with population growth. Actually, you can point to the 2008-2010 real estate crisis for this lack of supply as homebuilders pulled back or disappeared.

There is always a lot churning under the surface in real estate. Baby boomers should downsize, but aren't. The Fed fighting inflation is keeping mortgage rates high. Young people can't afford housing. All these issues will transmit into the market, but probably very slowly.

Meanwhile, you always have three forces under sail for U.S. real estate.

1) We have 3% inflation (not to mention recent high inflation) and Fed tries to operate with 2% inflation. Compounded inflation is an underpinning for all types of assets.
2) Government tax policy still favors real estate with the mortgage interest deduction. The cap looks like it might be raised at some point soon.
3) Americans for whatever reason love big houses. The older they get the more they generally reject apartment and condo living. There are exceptions to be sure, but this seems to be a consistent cultural phenomenon. It could always reverse, but not seeing it.

There are always cyclical forces that are transitory in nature. I could paint a picture where real estate has a decline this year and part of next. However, when the Fed reduces rates and the economy begins to recover (it' slowing down) real estate will also recover.
You don't believe that inflation is really 3% do you?
 

WyattEarp

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You don't believe that inflation is really 3% do you?
I'm only reporting what I read from official sources.

There are some areas where the prices are shockingly high. There however is evidence of pullback in grocery and restaurant prices. I'm hearing real estate prices are soft depending on the city.
 

Leimonis

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Feb 28, 2020
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Trump would not be aged a day because of that :)
A vote for dumb Donald is a vote for MTG, Steve Bannon, Michael Flynn, Jared Kushner, Stephen Miller and so now....fascists, grifters and fools.
four horsemen of trump: spit, shit, phlegm and vomit
 

Butler1000

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Oct 31, 2011
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Real estate is always cyclical. It tends to follow the business cycle. Some areas are overbuilt and will take time to absorb inventory. Florida condo associations have balance sheet issues which is isolated to specific poorly run buildings with low reserves. It's not an overall market condition.

It's not like 2008 at all. Owners have paid much higher downpayments. Thus they have skin in the game. Rents to property values are healthy. In 2008, it was so crazy rents weren't even coming close to covering ownership costs.

The real problem is commercial real estate which has structural issues in many cities.
Yup. And the banks are already foreclosing. Its going to cascade.
 
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