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Biden Will Drop Out Of 2024 Race—And This Is What May Happen Next: Steve Forbes

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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The reality here is the right wing media will lie about shit like this, and the MSM gets suckered into covering it as well.
It isn't them being "suckered".
Giving Trump a pass on this is a choice.

The MSM is involved in propping up a floor on Trump.
Watch how the debate gets covered.
 
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Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Sure, Kamala Harris would be so much worse than your pick, RFK Jr - whose brain was literally eaten by a parasite. Whatever will America do?!
mandrill - Kamala Harris is a black woman.
You know how that would be worse than anything else to certain people.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Certainly, you must understand that an 82 year old dying in the next four years is a much higher probability than a 78 year old. Dude, why must you throw spaghetti to try to find a point that sticks?
Obviously, their personal situations mean you have too many variables we don't know.
But I saw some people work out the general numbers from the actuarial tables. The details change depending on what year you use (lots of people are skeptical of the skew caused by COVID for 2020, 2021).

But it roughly comes out to a bit less than 10% difference.
There is a bit over a 20% chance Trump dies in office if he wins and about a 30% chance of Biden dying in office.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Interestingly, based on odds to be the nominee some bettors still believe Biden will step down. How would that work if he chose or was pushed to step down? Does Kamala automatically become the Democratic nominee? Can a Gavin Newsom or a Gretchen Witmer fight for the nomination and still have time to make a case to the general electorate? They could make a more compelling case that Trump is unfit for office as well as too old.
There is no clear answer.
Anyone who has delegates could run at the convention if it happened before the official nomination.

After official nomination, it would be the one time the DNC actually COULD just name someone on their own.
How the DNC would decide to decide is completely unknown - I suspect there would be a vicious fight just about the process.
 

TomFord1980

Well-known member
Jan 9, 2017
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Harris is far more qualified to be President than any of Trump's possible VP's..... he chooses only maga yesmen with no backbone.
To be fair, you'd only choose people loyal to you if the other side is constantly trying to jail you for silly things.
 
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Butler1000

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Oct 31, 2011
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mandrill - Kamala Harris is a black woman.
You know how that would be worse than anything else to certain people.
So when Hillary lost the nomination to Obama in 2008, did you celebrate that a BLACK man had won, or did you mourn that misogyny killed Hillary's chance because a MAN had won?
 
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TomFord1980

Well-known member
Jan 9, 2017
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There is no clear answer.
Anyone who has delegates could run at the convention if it happened before the official nomination.

After official nomination, it would be the one time the DNC actually COULD just name someone on their own.
How the DNC would decide to decide is completely unknown - I suspect there would be a vicious fight just about the process.
Let Montell Williams' old ho get the nomination
 

WyattEarp

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May 17, 2017
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Pence was qualified even if you don't like him. Being a governor gives you executive experience, legislative experience that scales up to the White House.
I think you are overstating this. The Governor of Indiana oversees a tiny budget relative to the Federal government. There is also the massive power of the Federal regulatory apparatus. Then you get into foreign policy, defense, border control, etc.

Honestly, nothing can compare to the job of POTUS. If you simply had to pick a Governor based on their experience, it would have to be one of the big states. However, I don't believe being a Senator precludes one from being a good executive. LBJ, Nixon and even Obama were effective executives.
 
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Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
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I think you are overstating this. The Governor of Indiana oversees a tiny budget relative to the Federal government. There is also the massive power of the Federal regulatory apparatus. Then you get into foreign policy, defense, border control, etc.

Honestly, nothing can compare to the job of POTUS. If you simply had to pick a Governor based on their experience, it would have to be one of the big states. However, I don't believe being a Senator precludes one from being a good executive. LBJ, Nixon and even Obama were effective executives.
Clinton scaled well. As you say, there are various paths and experiences to consider. It used to be military service was unofficially mandatory as well. But my statement is still correct. Being governor is a path that does bring tools learned to scale up to the WH.
 
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wigglee

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Oct 13, 2010
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To be fair, you'd only choose people loyal to you if the other side is constantly trying to jail you for silly things.
silly things? Like the phone call to Georgia asking for votes to be fabricated? What is silly about that???
 

kherg007

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May 3, 2014
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Clinton scaled well. As you say, there are various paths and experiences to consider. It used to be military service was unofficially mandatory as well. But my statement is still correct. Being governor is a path that does bring tools learned to scale up to the WH.
It's its own job, and executive experience in government helps heaps. I'm always shocked how casually Americans think that anyone can be president. If you don't know how govt works you're going to be ineffective at best, disastrous at worse.
 
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Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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So when Hillary lost the nomination to Obama in 2008, did you celebrate that a BLACK man had won, or did you mourn that misogyny killed Hillary's chance because a MAN had won?
Not having your hang ups, this wasn't an issue.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
35,466
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I think you are overstating this. The Governor of Indiana oversees a tiny budget relative to the Federal government. There is also the massive power of the Federal regulatory apparatus. Then you get into foreign policy, defense, border control, etc.

Honestly, nothing can compare to the job of POTUS. If you simply had to pick a Governor based on their experience, it would have to be one of the big states. However, I don't believe being a Senator precludes one from being a good executive. LBJ, Nixon and even Obama were effective executives.
There really hasn't been a massively dominant requirement.

I think less than half were governors before.
A lot have been lawyers (probably more than were governors).
Around 75% had military experience, but that seems as much tied to there being a number of big wars that almost everyone was involved with. It seems to go in fashion for a generation and then fade.
Even then, they mostly had political as well and some had only a year or less military. I think only Grant and Eisenhower never had political experience before being President - just military.

I agree with you that the job is pretty unique and it isn't obvious what mix of prior experience will help you prepare.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Lol, I'm not the one who seems to be assuming Hillary and Kamala are victims due to race and/or gender.
Is that the only reason people dislike them?
Obviously not.

But pretending racism and sexism don't exist in the US is beyond delusional, Butler.
 

Butler1000

Well-known member
Oct 31, 2011
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Is that the only reason people dislike them?
Obviously not.

But pretending racism and sexism don't exist in the US is beyond delusional, Butler.
Pretending its mostly about that is also beyond delusional. They were both elected in two large states. Its their personalities people hate.
 
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Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
35,466
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Pretending its mostly about that is also beyond delusional. They were both elected in two large states. Its their personalities people hate.
You do have a habit of mistaking your personal opinions for reality.
Although in this case, your sexism is probably in line with the general public.
 

wigglee

Well-known member
Oct 13, 2010
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You're nuts my man. Thank god we have adults to combat communism.
and thank God we had Republican voting officials who refused to cheat for Trump. Even Mike Pence refused to cheat for him. He lost, but still lies that it was a steal. Thank God we have people who still believe in democracy and fair elections.
 
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