Attack on Syria is it justified ?

fuji

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Phil C. McNasty

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Is there a credible source for Putin's threat?
Only other source I could find. A Pakistani newspaper:

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-5-199004-Russia-flayed-over-attack-threat-to-Saudi-Arabia

But the fact they're reporting Pakistan held a "countrywide protest day" tells me it might be true. It also might be an empty threat, except Putin doesnt strike me as a bluffer

Russia flayed over attack threat to Saudi Arabia

MARKAZI Jamiat Ahle Hadith (JAH) has strongly condemned Russian President Vladimir Putin for issuing open threat to attack Saudi Arabia in retaliation to US-led western attack on Syria, and announced to observe a countrywide protest day today (Friday).

Addressing a Press conference on Thursday, JAH Vice President Allama Zubair Ahmad Zaheer said that his party would hold demonstrations in all major cities to express solidarity with Saudi Arabia, and to condemn Russian president for his wild and unscrupulous threats.

He warned Putin that he would invite wrath from entire Muslim world if he dared to attempt harm Saudi Arabia. He demanded Islamabad to sever ties with Moscow since Putin’s threat was not meant for Saudi Arabia alone but was a threat to entire Muslim Ummah. He said Russian president’s threat would be treated as a declaration of war against Islam and a strong Jihad would be waged against Russia from all over the world
 

afterhours

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yolosohobby

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Those poor asset managers! Working tirelessly, selflessly for the universal good, not a thought for themselves. Why, when the evil liberal congress forced them to repackage junk mortgages or else they would shoot the puppy, I wept.

I was going to give a point-by-point rebuttal to the rest of the derp you spouted in that post, but you are drifting into acutus-level logic here and frankly, it ain't worth the effort.
did you decide to back off of this line of nonsense? or do you care to answer the questions posed to you?
 

Aardvark154

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Russia has sent 2 warships to the area. . . . and threatens to attack the Saudi's if US hits Syria: http://theiranproject.com/blog/2013...it-s-arab-in-reprisal-for-us-attack-on-syria/
Really the Fars News Agency!

This hasn't been in any of the Russian Press. Now I give you that the Russian Press isn't as free as it was a decade ago, but it really would be rather hard to keep a threat like this quiet don't you think? Further if Russia were willing to play this sort of brinkmanship, it would be rather counterproductive to keep the threat quiet wouldn't it know.
 

nobody123

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did you decide to back off of this line of nonsense? or do you care to answer the questions posed to you?
Oh, I'll back off your line of nonsense. I mean, when someone says that the global financial meltdown of 2008 happened because of liberal government bodies legislating pensions that forced the poor financial sector to lie and cheat, I dunno what to say. Seriously. I'm out of my depth here. It's not an idea I've ever come across in the reality-based community, and I simply do not know how to respond.
 

yolosohobby

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Oh, I'll back off your line of nonsense. I mean, when someone says that the global financial meltdown of 2008 happened because of liberal government bodies legislating pensions that forced the poor financial sector to lie and cheat, I dunno what to say. Seriously. I'm out of my depth here. It's not an idea I've ever come across in the reality-based community, and I simply do not know how to respond.
Thats a smart move on your part. Little Matt Taibbi cant help you. Your challenge is that you don't know the way the financial sector is actually broken down . Thats understandable, most people don't. Including most reporters. There are a few good ones like Gretchen Mortensen at the NYT , who actually did a book called Reckless Endangerment, which is an insightful read.

Simply put, BUYERS of securities, like securitized mortgages and all of the various derivatives had to reach for yield / return because they had to meet certain investment objectives to achieve the return requirements that defined benefit pensions require in order to keep their promises. these returns are 7.5/ 8% as calculated by actuaries. the benchmark security they use, the 10 yr US Treasury bond hasnt yielded more than 6-7% since the 90s and spend a lot of time in the 00's well below 4 %. Problem, so they BUY risk.

the sell side of Wall Street will gladly sell these buyers risky investments IF THERE IS A MARKET FOR THEM . which there obviously was. So the state pension fund of california, illinois, etc... loaded up on mortgage backed securities and their derivatives to achieve higher returns. They hired Ivy leaguers who knew how to build valuation models.

Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JO Morgan Deutschebank also make markets and trade proprietarily for their own accounts. Plus the origination process in securitization takes time so they hold whole loans and mortgages in inventory which are difficult to hedge . So when these guys figured out the market was going to go down in housing they found an insurance company, AIG and they all found the same insurance company , which had the potential to overload the system. AIG btw is a regulated entity.

The guys that really made money were the total return/ alpha seekers like the hedge fund guys like John Paulson , Michael Burry who could actually get short the price of houses through these securities (pension funds cant go short). You can read all about this in Michael Lewis book, The Big Short.

So the USG through TARP and other programs injected capital into the banking and securities system which were all blurred together on the sell side because in 1999, with Bill Clinto signing, Glass Steagall was repealed. His treasury secretary was Bob Rubin, ex Chair of Goldman Sachs fyi. This direct injection of capital plus TRILLIONS of dollars of liquidity supplied by central banks over the past 7 years has allowed the banking system to appear to be healthy again.

These low rates dont affect the various players in financial system the same way. banks love it because they basically borrow money from the fed at 0.10% and through the wonders of leverage they buy 30 to 50 x the amount they borrow from the fed at yields that today are 2,80% on a 10 yr (they were sub 2% for a few years ) That is called the carry trade and it is a money machine for banks. Pension fund managers though have a problem. They need to make 8% returns to satisfy their defined benefit pension obligations, and they cant use leverage, so they have to buy riskier securities bcuz Treasuries yield 2.8% tonight... which is at the high end of their 5 year range. So Wall Street and Bay Street will originate securities to try and help these pension fund managers make their 8%.

So its like any other industry, manufacturers make product to sell into demand from customers. These customers needed excessive returns, so the system gave them mortgages. That in turn drove up prices artificially too... for a generation. Eventually the good mortgages were all done so they had to find shittier mortgages and on and on it went ..... and it is still going on.

Anyhow thats a short simple version. Most folks just lump it all together because they dont know how it works.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/pandemic-pension-woes-plaguing-nation-6C10825512
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/07/04/business-dbrs-pension-report.html
 

Aardvark154

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Oh, I'll back off your line of nonsense. I mean, when someone says that the global financial meltdown of 2008 happened because of liberal government bodies legislating pensions that forced the poor financial sector to lie and cheat, I dunno what to say. Seriously. I'm out of my depth here. It's not an idea I've ever come across in the reality-based community, and I simply do not know how to respond.
It is true to the extent that many sub-prime mortgages were made in part because the federal government not only urged banks to make them but also threatened many banks with Civil Rights lawsuits because on a percentage basis not enough of their loans were being made to members of minority groups. So it was a cause, that certainly isn't the same as saying it was the cause.
 

yolosohobby

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It is true to the extent that many sub-prime mortgages were made in part because the federal government not only urged banks to make them but also threatened many banks with Civil Rights lawsuits because on a percentage basis not enough of their loans were being made to members of minority groups. So it was a cause, that certainly isn't the same as saying it was the cause.
Im not saying that was THE cause. Those mortgages were just a part of making the raw material (lesser quality mortgages) available for the manufacturing process (securitization and derivatives) for the customers that bought the products i.e. defined pension funds who needed the returns because unions, governments and some private corporations offered these defined benefit plans which anticipated higher interest rates when the benefits were promised
 

fuji

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Only other source I could find. A Pakistani newspaper:

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-5-199004-Russia-flayed-over-attack-threat-to-Saudi-Arabia

But the fact they're reporting Pakistan held a "countrywide protest day" tells me it might be true. It also might be an empty threat, except Putin doesnt strike me as a bluffer
So not even Russian Media carried it?

Colour me doubtful.

Putin isn't a low key guy. When he talks tough he struts around for the camera, takes his shirt off, and beats his chest. At least his pet news media like Russia Today would carry his statement.
 

Phil C. McNasty

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Really the Fars News Agency!

This hasn't been in any of the Russian Press. Now I give you that the Russian Press isn't as free as it was a decade ago, but it really would be rather hard to keep a threat like this quiet don't you think? Further if Russia were willing to play this sort of brinkmanship, it would be rather counterproductive to keep the threat quiet wouldn't it know
So not even Russian Media carried it?

Colour me doubtful.

Putin isn't a low key guy. When he talks tough he struts around for the camera, takes his shirt off, and beats his chest. At least his pet news media like Russia Today would carry his statement
I dunno if its true.

O'Reilly brought it up in a McCain interview, and he said Iran and Russia would be beaten if they tried anything (5:45 into video):

 

red

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I'm saying its possible. Why else bring your wives to a political meeting??
Because you are on a political junket to Syria and because that's the way diplomacy is done.

I'm no supporter of John Kerry, but good Lord, having dinner with the Head of State of Syria a good year before the civil war erupted. . . .
A man is right. its like bringing wives to a business meeting.
 

dtjohnst

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That just isn't true.

He did and no one believed him.
That means outside TERB, the U.K., France, Russia, the PRC, the U.S.A. etc. . . .
Paul Pillar, CIA officer: "The atmosphere in which they were working, in which a policy decision clearly had already been made, in which intelligence was being looked to to support that decision rather to inform decisions yet to be made, was a very important part of the atmosphere."

Or you can read the Downing Street Memo: "C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime's record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action." http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Downing_Street_memo

There's George Tenet who had a meeting with Bush in 2002 before the invasion where he tells him that the reports are being editted in such a way to show incorrect information and the he wanted to be clear that there was no tangible intelligence indicating Iraq had WMDs aside from single-source, unreliable, biased intel. Yes, Tenet had been initially convinced there would be no problem locating information to indicate WMDs in Iraq and even made statements to that fact, but as the weeks pressed on and no evidence was found, he changed his mind. There's a big difference in the two: One was a suspicion based on prior dealings, the other was founded in facts at the time, no doubt after reviewing reports from other agencies.

Shortly before the invasion, the German Chancellor, Gerhardt Schroeder had a meeting with the German Parliament and told them BND/MAD had no intelligence indicating Iraq had WMDs. Putin held several press conferences in the lead up to the war, including one the night before, where he states categorically that he has no evidence of WMDs from FSB. Jacques Chirac made similar statements in the days leading to invasion. Of course, you won't find any coverage on Canada because no one cares what we say on the world stage anymore, but I know for a fact that CSIS and CSE were scrambling to try and find any credible source to support the claim that there were WMDs in Iraq. Had they found any, it would've been presented and Canada would've probably joined the war if only to offer token support.

It was the BND that initially located Curveball, and when he was handed over to the CIA, the BND made it clear they didn't believe his claims. After CIA vetting, the initial intelligence reports said he was only telling interrogators what they wanted to hear.

One of the main reasons why France refused to join the war in Iraq is because they had the most credible source: Naji Sabri, a member of Saddam's cabinet. When asked if Saddam could ramp up production of nuclear weapons and have a working bomb in a few years if he had access to uranium, he said it would take "much longer". He is the ONLY source aside from Curveball to claim any WMDs anywhere, and his claim was a cache of buried nerve gas which French intelligence was unable to verify. That's how intelligence agencies work: single-source unverified information is a rumour, not intelligence. They did eventually find a small cache, one barely worthy of mention that was old and ineffective, but they already supsected Sabri's intelligence wasn't good.

MI6 and GCSE reports in the UK you can find in the Downing Street Memos. Another section of note: "It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to allow back in the UN weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal justification for the use of force." It's important to note that Saddam wasn't supposed to be "completely disarmed", but to be complying with disarmament at the time. Further reading shows intelligence indicated that the stockpiles he had were in the process of being dismantled in accordance with the UN requirements. Post-invasion, we find evidence that such dismantling had been completed with the exception of the single stockpile referred to by Sabri.

Italian intelligence received a report that Saddam was attempting to by uranium from Niger. Oddly enough, it was supposedly from Canada. That was the first indication that these documents were forgeries. Nonetheless, they were turned over to MI6 and CIA. They were deemed forgeries long before the invasion took place and Italian intelligence informed their parliament categorically that there was no evidence of WMDs in Iraq.

Here's a handful of reports about these events from various sources (yes, even FOX news reported some of this):
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/01/60minutes/main3440577_page4.shtml
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/22/politics/22intel.HTML
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,158228,00.HTML
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2007/07/Wilson-bush-acc/

Claiming everyone believed Iraq had WMDs is like claiming everyone believed Iraq had ties to Al Qaeda. Politicians and their talking heads said so in the leadup, but virtually everyone involved has recanted. I remember watching the Daily Show once where they showed clips of politicians saying Iraq and Al Qaeda were linked, followed by clips where they're saying they never claimed there were links between the two at all. WMDs have been found in Iraq. But that wasn't really widely reported because no one wanted to open the can of worms that was shoddy intelligence reporting and shoddy news reporting in the pre-war months when the intelligence community started speaking out after their intelligence reports were being edited. An interesting movie on the subject, with great cinematography and production values, is "Why We Fight" by BBC and Storyville. Excellent film and shows both sides of the coin, with politicians sticking to their guns and former Pentagon staffers discussing how their reports were edited.
 

fuji

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Bush was a horrible president. Iraq was amateur hour.

No idea what was going on.

Making up facts as he went.

No plan for the reconstruction whatsoever.

I'd it didn't kill a million people and destroy trust in the US it would be funny.

No president has ever done that much direct and material harm to US interests
 

yolosohobby

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Bush was a horrible president. Iraq was amateur hour.

No idea what was going on.

Making up facts as he went.

No plan for the reconstruction whatsoever.

I'd it didn't kill a million people and destroy trust in the US it would be funny.

No president has ever done that much direct and material harm to US interests
The Iraq war was an example of no matter how much process you use to get into a war, the minute you make contact with the enemy, your plans go out the window and you are in a war and anything is then possible.

The same universal principles apply to Syria. Just as they do in Libya as they are now playing out.
 

Phil C. McNasty

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Poor Cyprus has nowhere to run!!!
Hopefully for them all the missiles will fly right over their island

The Iraq war was an example of no matter how much process you use to get into a war, the minute you make contact with the enemy, your plans go out the window and you are in a war and anything is then possible.

The same universal principles apply to Syria. Just as they do in Libya as they are now playing out
That is absolutely 100% correct.

As soon as the bombs drop all bets are off as to how this thing will end
 
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