Well Roger does it again ... It is only early April and he has one Grand slam and 2 1000 series under his belt ....
2017 ATP season begins with a Novak win ...
- Thread starter raptorizedguy
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Three things in particular Fed is doing better in 2017...
1. He is so quick to get up on that baseline on that BH side. He is taking the ball on the rise and the timing on the BH has been beautiful. Sure, the courts may have helped him down under but he hit his BH even better at Indian Wells. Hitting over the backhand a LOT more this season. Fewer slice BHs which is why Rafa's usual patterns has not been as effective.
2. The return-of-serve : Fed has been returning serve really well this season. Getting better depth on the returns and hitting the BH return especially with more authority.
3. Fed playing the big points better this year. In recent years he hasn't played the big points as well but that has not been the case this year.
I really feel like his success this year is a confluence of various factors most notably the bigger racquet head that he switched to a few years ago in conjunction with the new tactics that Ljubicic has brought to the table as well as some of the tactics that his previous coach Edberg added to the mix - such as coming into net. Fed didn't really take full advantage of his front-court skills for a lot of his career until Edberg was coaching him .
1. He is so quick to get up on that baseline on that BH side. He is taking the ball on the rise and the timing on the BH has been beautiful. Sure, the courts may have helped him down under but he hit his BH even better at Indian Wells. Hitting over the backhand a LOT more this season. Fewer slice BHs which is why Rafa's usual patterns has not been as effective.
2. The return-of-serve : Fed has been returning serve really well this season. Getting better depth on the returns and hitting the BH return especially with more authority.
3. Fed playing the big points better this year. In recent years he hasn't played the big points as well but that has not been the case this year.
I really feel like his success this year is a confluence of various factors most notably the bigger racquet head that he switched to a few years ago in conjunction with the new tactics that Ljubicic has brought to the table as well as some of the tactics that his previous coach Edberg added to the mix - such as coming into net. Fed didn't really take full advantage of his front-court skills for a lot of his career until Edberg was coaching him .
Could a year away from tennis help generate the juices .. It does help Novak isn't even close to old dominate self ... I am a big Roger Fan and to do this at 35 is one of his biggest accomplishments in tennis .
Well it wasn't quite a year. It was about 6 months. But I think the time off helped him mostly to come up with some fresh ideas with Ljubicic. He is hitting the BH with more authority this year taking the ball on the rise and timing it beautifully. Also hitting over the BH return so cleanly this year. I just think it is a mindset that Ljubicic has instilled. He is committed to being aggressive on the BH. He has also been returning really great this year too.
Maybe but I suspect his (and Nadal's) success this year are down to mainly the poor form and injuries of the top two and the extended break taken the end of last year. Wimbledon if not the French open will be a bigger test.
Don't know if I agree with that. Fed is clearly returning serve better and hitting over the BH and being more authoritative with the BH a lot more this year. It is why Rafa has been forced to change up his usual patterns against him. Notice how yesterday Rafa was serving more to the Federer FH than in the past? In the past he might have served exclusively to the Federer backhand. The fact that Fed has now won against Rafa three times this year suggests he has upped his game because Rafa had Fed's number for the longest time before that. Sure, Fed did get a win in Basel last year over Rafa but that isn't a significant win compared to the AO or IW or Miami. Brad Gilbert went so far as to say that Fed is playing the best tennis that he has ever seen him play.
So you are saying his long break and the absence of Djokovich and Murray have not helped him? Surely not as that sounds crazy.
Djokovic AND Andy Murray played in BOTH the AO and IW. And Novak's has been vulnerable since after RG last year. So I don't think that has a BIG factor with Fed's success this year b/c those guys were in 2 of the 3 big tournaments that Fed ended up winning including the biggest - the AO. Doesn't matter if they collided with Fed or not. The absence you talk about is only in regards to Miami.
At the AO Denis Istomin beat Novak and Andy Murray was beat by the net-rushing swashbuckling tactics of Mischa Zverev. Murray was almost confounded by Zverev. And Misha is definitely one of the better volleyers on tour no doubt. Even though his younger brother is the far more talented of the two players.
In Acapulco and IW Novak lost to Nick. I watched both matches and Nick rained down nearly 2 aces per service game (if you include the breaker as a game) in Acapulco and I don't know if he even faced a BP in IW. Amazing that the greatest returner of all time on his favorite surface was having that much trouble on Nick's serve. Nick's serve is difficult to read and Novak was leaning wrong way or guessing at times even which is stunning for a returner of his quality. Also, Nick has a tendency to be brave on the 2nd serve on big points. Pays off for him a lot but can hurt him once in a while as we saw in the Miami SFs.
So NO I do not think the absence of Murray and Novak have been much of a factor.
Yes I do think the break helped but I think it helped more in terms of the mental side because Fed has come back with some new strategies this year. Not slicing the BH as much, greater commitment to hit over the BH taking it on the rise and same thing on the returns. So I think the break has helped in terms of giving Fed time to discuss things with coach Ljubicic and tinker with the tactics a bit.
I'll tell you what I think helped Federer way more than ANY of the two factors you mentioned. Craig Tiley helped Federer. Why? Because Tiley and the boys tinkered with the AO courts this year or at the very least the tennis balls (ask Darren Cahill) and the hardcourts in Melbourne this year were FASTER than I have EVER seen them. I wonder why Venus Williams suddenly got back to a slam final and OFF grass no less. The courts were sped up big time. That is why. She doesn't make it to the AO final if the conditions were not changed. Venus has historically played her best tennis on FAST courts. The altered court conditions surely helped Fed time the backhand . And if you don't wanna take my word for it you can take P.Mac's because he said the very same thing during the tournament coverage on ESPN. Some people are even suggesting that Tiley and the boys sped up the conditions in an effort to help Roger Federer. Tiley is denying it of course. But the courts were sped up - make no mistake about that. The biggest tournament that Fed won this year was in a tournament where the conditions were changed dramatically from previous years. Those were the fastest hardcourts I have EVER seen down in Melbourne. The court-pace index was threw the damn roof! Strongly encourage you to look it up online and you'll see what the court pace index was in MElbourne this year. It was just crazy. If anything helped Federer - that may have helped Federer more than any absence of Novak and Andy in my opinion. Keep in mind Federer won some close 5 setters down under this year including a tight final against Rafa. It would be crazy to think the court-conditions couldn't have swung the outcome of at least one of those matches in Fed's favor - especially in a match where he was playing a guy who has had most of his success on the slower - courts which would mean the final versus Rafa. If Rafa was that close to Fed on a lightning quick hard-court I have to believe on that day Rafa wins if the court conditions had not been changed. That said Federer did beat Rafa in IW as well which is a SIGNIFICANTLY slower hard-court than Melbourne. But given how close the AO contest was I think the conditions made a difference in Fed's favor on that day
I just realized that in your initial post you talked about Novak and Andy's FORM as well. Not just the absence. Yes, of course I would agree that their form has been a factor but that is the nature of tennis though right? Whoever has the best form in the tournament likely has a good shot of winning. The form of players will not always remain constant. Novak's form has dropped since RG of last year. So it isn't like Novak's form suddenly dropped in 2017. Yes, he did reach the USO final but Novak has been vulnerable since post RG last year. And don't forget Novak almost got bounced early at last year's AO too - remember he committed 100 UEs against Gilloux and nearly lost. But I think Federer's IMPROVED form this year is a huge factor in his success too. There are no reasons involving Novak or Andy that can explain how Federer has suddenly beaten Rafa in 3 significant events in a row this year. Lets throw out the win in Basel last year because that is an insignificant event relatively speaking. Rafa had had Fed's number for a long time and now Fed has turned the tables this year . A lot of that has to do with the massive improvements in the BH and the return-of-serve. Actually, Fed is also serving as well as he ever has this year or better.
Umm, I guess Federer fans might see it that way. Federer to my mind has just brilliantly seized an opportunity he wouldn't have had most of last year. As has Nadal. Common to both an extended break and poor form/injuries of the top players.
Well we can agree to disagree but to suggest that my opinion is what it is because I am a Federer fan is unfair.
You still have NOT explained to me how Federer has suddenly started beating Rafa this year after so many losses and 3 times in a row at that. Surely, that has nothing to do with Novak or Andy. And if an extended break is common to both then that factor becomes a wash as far as the Federer-Rafa head-to-head matchups. Do you have an explanation for how Federer has suddenly turned around the dynamic of this rivalry? Federer is now RUSHING Rafa on surfaces OTHER than grass. Rafa is CHANGING up patterns of play now and being forced to make adjustments. He never had to do this before against Federer. Because these particular things CANNOT be explained by poor form/injuries of Andy/Novak or extended breaks. This cannot be dismissed as some anomaly. There has to be a reasonable explanation for this - we know Andy and Novak have nothing to do with Fed turning the tables on Rafa. So what is the explanation? I'm going by what I am seeing with my eyes. Federer is returning and hitting the BH as well as he ever has. Rafa has NEVER seen Federer hit the BH like he is now. Darren Cahill even said that for the first time ever he saw Rafa looked like he had no answers against Federer in Indian Wells. It wasn't that Rafa was playing bad, it was that Rafa didn't know what to do against Federer because the usual patterns of play were NOT working.
So you do not think Federer is hitting his BH better than ever? How many times has he chipped BH returns against Rafa before? How may times did he hit a BH slice yesterday against Rafa? VERY VERY few times. He was hitting OVER the BH a LOT. He has done that all year. And that has helped him against Rafa. And the BH return is much better.
Why has Rafa changed up his patterns of play against Federer? Patterns of play that he used over and over and over again to beat Federer. Suddenly Rafa decides to change up the patterns. Why? Because his time-honored strategy that had been so successful for him exploited a weakness that is no longer there.
Brad Gilbert said yesterday that he believes Federer is playing better tennis than he has ever seen him play. Brad Gilbert is a pretty fair analyst even if you wanna dismiss my opinion as just rantings of a Federer fan. I'll side with Brad Gilbert on this one.
http://au.eurosport.com/tennis/miam...on-top-until-he-is-4.0_sto6116754/story.shtml
Good Lord man! And I thought I was a big Fed fan. You must be on his mailing list!
Take it easy now - I'm just kidding you
Happy to know there's more than just me that regard Roger as the GOAT.
There are a couple of points I think you're missing though in what changed the Roger-Rafa dynamic. One is that Rafa is not IMO playing at the level he used to in his heyday a few years ago. I think this is mainly because of his numerous injury issues these past few years. Secondly the six month break enabled Roger to fully recover from his injuries and regain his potential. He as much as said so himself in his post-match interview yesterday. Otherwise I agree with most of your points, especially his improved backhand this year.
Sorry, this is in reply to Starzero4. I couldn't seem to get tis to work when I hit Reply With Quote.
Take it easy now - I'm just kidding you
Happy to know there's more than just me that regard Roger as the GOAT.There are a couple of points I think you're missing though in what changed the Roger-Rafa dynamic. One is that Rafa is not IMO playing at the level he used to in his heyday a few years ago. I think this is mainly because of his numerous injury issues these past few years. Secondly the six month break enabled Roger to fully recover from his injuries and regain his potential. He as much as said so himself in his post-match interview yesterday. Otherwise I agree with most of your points, especially his improved backhand this year.
Sorry, this is in reply to Starzero4. I couldn't seem to get tis to work when I hit Reply With Quote.
Oh I am a fellow Federer fan but first let me be clear that I am still an objective Fed fan. Federer may have won a lot of sportsmanship awards but I'd argue he isn't always as sporting as some people think. I was not happy with him coming up with excuses in his post-match presser, unsolicited I might add, after his loss to the Birdman at Wimbledon several years ago. I also recall him talking about Murray's game in unflattering terms many years ago despite the fact that Murray would always only say good things about Federer. Federer is also a trash talker at times although he does it in a way that is subtle so he gets away with the trash talking without making himself look bad. For example in the trophy ceremony yesterday he told Rafa "well the clay-court season is just around the corner so I'm sure you'll be tearing it up there". As a self-professed Federer fan I translate that into meaning "hey Rafa you are mostly a clay court guy , that is where you have most of your success. ". I just figured I had to say a few bad things about Federer so I just don't look like some unobjective Federer lover. I'm happy to say the good and the bad about Federer. I have always believed that Novak has always been far more gracious in defeat than Federer. Federer isn't at Serena's level for sure - Serena just refuses to give credit to anybody who beats her other than Venus. Federer isn't that bad for sure but he hasn't always been gracious in defeat. Not like Novak has anyway. Hopefully nobody accuses me of hating on Federer now LOL.Good Lord man! And I thought I was a big Fed fan. You must be on his mailing list!
Take it easy now - I'm just kidding you
There are a couple of points I think you're missing though in what changed the Roger-Rafa dynamic. One is that Rafa is not IMO playing at the level he used to in his heyday a few years ago. I think this is mainly because of his numerous injury issues these past few years. Secondly the six month break enabled Roger to fully recover from his injuries and regain his potential. He as much as said so himself in his post-match interview yesterday. Otherwise I agree with most of your points, especially his improved backhand this year.
Sorry, this is in reply to Starzero4. I couldn't seem to get tis to work when I hit Reply With Quote.
I hear your point but my rebuttal would be Rafa's prime was MANY years ago and its not like Rafa was in his prime last year or the year before. So why suddenly is RAfa changing up time-honored patterns of play and strategies that worked for him before NOW? I think the reason is because Federer has forced Rafa to change up the patterns by improving the very weaknesses Rafa used to attack. Notice how Rafa served more to the FH yesterday ? He is also was flattening out the backhand cross-court to try and get to the Federer FH. RAfa used to almost exclusively attack the Fed BH. Can't do that anymore because of the improved backhand.
I think Federer is returning and hitting the backhand better than ever. HE is so quick to get up on the baseline on that backhand side , taking the ball on the rise and timing it beautifully. And the depth and pace of his returns have been great. He is staying neutral on the first ball with a lot of his returns now which means he isn't falling behind in the point which gives him a shot. He is hitting OVER the BH return so cleanly as well.
Naturally the 6 months off was necessary to allow the knee to heal and to rehab the knee.
Oh your not alone and I am friggin loving this Federer comeback . I think we can analyze why on the technical side but maybe just 6 months away from the tour has rekindled his passion ( missed the competition ) which along with his health has allowed him to dominate the tour . Seriously it helps when the tour's best player is battling injuries and has lost a bit of his step since his dominance of the tour . Roger Federer has often proved his critics or people who have said he is done wrong before .Good Lord man! And I thought I was a big Fed fan. You must be on his mailing list!
Take it easy now - I'm just kidding you
There are a couple of points I think you're missing though in what changed the Roger-Rafa dynamic. One is that Rafa is not IMO playing at the level he used to in his heyday a few years ago. I think this is mainly because of his numerous injury issues these past few years. Secondly the six month break enabled Roger to fully recover from his injuries and regain his potential. He as much as said so himself in his post-match interview yesterday. Otherwise I agree with most of your points, especially his improved backhand this year.
Sorry, this is in reply to Starzero4. I couldn't seem to get tis to work when I hit Reply With Quote.
We can all agree that Roger is exactly what the tour needs right now . The loss of both Murray and Novak is quite the hit for the ATP tour .
I believe Nadal's game has dropped off. He is not as strong and punishing. It is still good enough to beat all the other pretenders, but not Fed. Not asserting. Just speculating.
I think Rafa is not as strong against Fed now because he is being forced to change up his usual patterns for example by flattening out the BH cross to attack the Fed FH and even the BH line some . Rafa was dropping some returns short and the FH got more errant as the second set wore on yesterday and even when he did have a chance to hit a FH he was dropping some short or not getting good direction on it. BUt I think it is all a function of him having to make adjustments for once because the weakness of Federer he used to attack no longer exists. He is being forced to do things he did not have to do before against Fed. Some like Brad Gilbert would argue Fed is serving better this year too. He is definitely hitting the "bachhand" and return-of-serve maybe better than ever.
I was actually one of the few folks who believed Fed would win major No. 18. Made the post back in 2014 on terb . I'd be lying if I said I though it would happen in 2017 but it still happened. Post 116. OF course, if I knew Craig Tiley and the boys in Melbourne would have changed the court conditions to make them super Fed friendly I would have included the AO as a potential site for him to win his No. 18. No way I could have predicted Tiley would speed up the court conditions the way he did. The court pace index in AO this year was just insane.
https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...turn-to-top-3-ATP-2014-season-is-here-!/page5
I publicly declared Fed would not win another major, so I now concede he may now be tied with Rocket Rod as the most dominant player of all time.
However, this is not all on Fed. Nadal is not what he used to be. Not only has he been doing worse against Roger, he does not steamroll other opponents as thoroughly as he used to. He has dropped off more than Roger.
All I am suggesting is I think this version of Federer would have given Rafa more problems in the past - even a younger Rafa than the Rafa of today. Reason is because the weakness Rafa used to exploit no longer exists. Rafa has NEVER seen Fed hit the BH as well as he is hitting it in 2017. The game-plan a 23 year old Rafa used versus Fed or a 25 year old Rafa used against Fed or a 27 year old Rafa used against Fed would likely NOT work against the 2017 model of Federer. I'm very curious to see Fed's next matchup with Novak. I would pick definitely pick Federer to win the match. There are at least 3 or 4 things that Federer is doing now better than ever - his BH has been en fuego this year. Hitting over it so cleanly and the timing on the BH side has been impeccable. At first I thought it was purely a function of those tailor-made courts at the AO this year but then he did the same thing in Indian Wells - heck he hit the BH BETTER at Indian Wells on a slower higher bouncing hard-court. Fed is also returning serve better now - never his strength in the past despite his all-court complete game. And I believe he is playing the big points as well as he ever as. Brad Gilbert also suggested during the IW and Miami coverage that Federer is serving better this year. The numbers would suggest so.
I think it is noteworthy to point out too that prime Fed in the mid 2000s was not using the new bigger racquet head that he switched to in late 2013. The new racquet has paid enormous dividends - fewer shanks/mishits, more bite on the 2nd serve, he is better able to generate easy power now, etc. Also, this model of Federer is taking full advantage of his front-court skills - prime Fed played primarily from the back of the court. I actually think there is a VERY strong argument to be made that Federer now is more complete than prime Federer. This Federer takes advantage of his front-court skills more and is returning better. The fearhand is as lethal as ever. And if there is a dropoff in the movement I'd say it is negligible. And since he is playing more offensive now any negligible drop off in the defensive skills is almost deemed irrelevant because he isn't being forced to play as much defense these days.
And I think Brad Gilbert could very well be right that Federer is playing the best tennis he has EVER played. So I am certainly not alone in this opinion.
All this said I think this model of Federer has the advantage over Rafa on EVERY surface save for clay. On clay I still think Rafa will beat Federer. My reasoning is below - apologies for the long post but I want to provide reasoning to support my position...
Even with Fed's greatly improved ROS and BH, I don't see how he overcomes a healthy Rafa on clay. Consider this - Fed is beating Rafa on hardcourts the same way Davydenko always beat Rafa on hardcourts - by taking the ball early (especially off the BH side) and using both pace and angles to rush Rafa's FH. Basically, Davydenko could use his BH to break down Rafa's FH, which is exactly what Fed is now able to do.
However, even as Davydenko was dominating Rafa on hardcourts, Rafa was always beating him on clay because the ball moves slower so Rafa can get to every shot (on both his first shot off the opponent's ROS and sharply hit rally balls) AND because the bounce is much less uniform on clay than it is on hardcourts, it is VERY difficult to take the ball right off the bounce without making a lot of errors. Davydenko couldn't do it with an excellent two-handed BH; it would be that much harder to control these balls on clay with a single-handed BH.
And Fed is not going to be able to employ Nole's game plan for beating Rafa on clay, which is a combination of teeing off high balls to his BH (which is right in Nole's preferred strike zone) and out-grinding Rafa. So because of the unpredictable bounce precluding taking the ball super early and the court slowing down the ball allowing Rafa to get to every ball (possibly to hit FHs off the majority of those balls), Fed is right back where he started when he faces Rafa on clay - facing a barrage of high balls forcing him to hit neck-high or ear-high BHs.
I just don't see how Fed overcomes this, which would be even more remarkable to me than EVERYTHING he has done so far in 2017.
As a Fed fan though I am now at the point now where I have gone from dreading collisions with Rafa to inviting them. I feel like Fed can continue to chip away at that H2H now unless a disproportionate number of their future encounters occur on clay.
Nadal's game was always more physical than Roger's. When Fed first came out I thought he was the smoothest tennis player I had ever seen. His running style is so low impact that it seems that he would never develop knee or ankle problems.
Things tend to change quickly once they get on the clay
Things tend to change quickly once they get on the clay
