Trump is using the threat of tariffs as some way to project power over Canada, Mexico and the EU. But, the reality is, if he actually imposes them, the US economy is going to see mad inflation. Will it possible force more domestic manufacturing? Sure. It could. But you can't build (or refurbish) a factory or train employees overnight. Those things would take a year at best, more likely two or more years. And, by that time, Trump would likely have backed down because the US economy took a massive hit.
Let's face a few facts: We know (well, the educated amongst us) that tariffs impact the shelf price of goods...unless the producer eats the cost. Now, with the low Canadian dollar, the 25% tariff might not be that bad for certain products, and it might not make a difference...or a negligible difference. But, then there are things like raw materials or metals. Like aluminum. The US cannot produce enough of that metal, and likely can't for several years (refineries/smelters take time to build), and the price for aluminum has already surged BEFORE the tariffs. So, we're looking at inflation....and, when combined with other factors, it could be MASSIVE inflation. What else are we talking about? Well, deporting immigrants is going to cut the labour pool for things like picking fruit, construction and in the hospitality industry. That could see wages surge, as most American's don't want to do those jobs for that low pay.
Next, you have the international issues. Canadians are cancelling trips to the US. If this keeps up, Florida's tourism industry is going to take a pretty big hit, with nearly $6B pumped into their economy from Canadians. But, it isn't just Florida. Other states have reported that bookings from Canadians have plummeted since Trump started flapping his gums about 51st state and tariffs. Places like New York, Arizona, Cali, New Jersey and others have seen trips cancelled. And, there is a chance that EU members (or even other commonwealth countries) could start avoiding the US for leisure trips.
Next, even without tariffs, Canadians have been boycotting US-made goods. On some level, this might not be sustainable, but I think you'll see major manufacturers of goods, like Kraft, reporting lower international sales. This could lead to a lot of US companies and farms losing billions in sales. And, again, the EU or other countries could start to boycott these products (though that is less likely).
All of these things are going to put people out of work. And, if you recall....Elon's DOGE has already fired thousands of public servants. So, I doubt we'll see positive job growth numbers for 2025, nor a thriving US economy...
I remember someone on X was bragging that the last time the GOP controlled the White House, Senate and House was 1928. But....does anyone know what happened in 1929....And how the president Hoover made a painful recession into the Great Depression by implementing....tariffs....
So, while Mayor McCheese down there might think he's some kind of stable genius, the reality is that he will tank the US economy if he tries this bullshit. Will Canada feel it? Of course. We're going to take a pounding. But, I think it will increase patriotism, and might help us ween our economy from the US. Maybe we can make more cash via Europe or Asia. They're going to need our critical minerals, potash, and other resources. The bottomline is, Trump will either keep pushing the deadline back, or claim some sort of victory over Canada/Mexico like he did three weeks ago.