Harris has the post convention bump in the polls. However a couple of things to consider...
The celebrity star studded affair the Democratic Convention was great for states like CA & NY. Not great for battleground States like MI, PA, VA, NC. Celebrities represent Hollywood "Elitist" and folks who live in small cities in battleground states like Harrisburg PA or Lansing MI do not like Hollywood's influence on traditional values and feel these Hollywood Elitists think they in rural America or "Fly Over Country" are stupid.
The Convention was also far from just about being coastal elites and Hollywood celebrities.
Hard to say how it read to people until we start getting feedback.
Mainstream Media (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, etc) all said polls show Hillary was going to beat Trump. What happened.
She beat Trump by a few million votes.
The polls were pretty accurate.
The issue was slim victories in some swing states and the disaster that is the Electoral College.
Media showed biased against Republicans, religious people and Trump... So when Pollsters asked questions... Many Trump supports stayed quiet to avoid the backlash.
The "shy Trump voter" theory is an interesting one and hard to prove.
The polls were more or less accurate.
There is lots of evidence it was the undecided/double-dislike people breaking for Trump last minute. A lot of that may have been from the Comey letter. Hold the election a week later and she likely wins. That said, there were also lots of voters who didn't normally vote who came out for Trump, and those people are weighted against in the polls.
It was a razor thin race which means LOTS of things played into it.
I remember when Trump won... Michael Moore going on MSNBC and said the news networks did not see their own bias because they don't understand rural America... That has not changed.
The big elite media absolutely doesn't understand rural America.
There is a lot to question about what effect that had on the election. It doesn't seem to have affected the polling very much.
It does affect a lot of the bullshit nonsense the media covering an election talks about, though.
Harris is from California and has to find a way to connect with middle America to win the Battleground States. She has to find a way to connect with the rural or suburban mom & dad who are big on family, supporting American jobs, and take their kids to church on Sundays. PA, NC, FL, VA, MI, OH are all filled with these folks and these States are key for her to win.
Which she seems to be doing well.
Walz does that exceptionally well.
Vance so far seems to be absolutely shit at it.
Trump is bad at it as well, but connects to them on the "We are racists and want to not feel bad about that" for those who are into that.
I do think Harris can pull it off... Trump is a wildcard and the Dem's have to keep him off balance and have him talking trash. There is still time for Trump to regroup and come back. Harris has to keep talking middle class and start talking about family values and the importance of family.
The Dems have been the only party talking family values and supporting families for about 20 years.
That's not where the battle is really being fought.
