Court has ruled Emergencies Act during Trucker convoy was unconstitutional

[benstt]

I didn't know that 1,265 people speak for all of Canada?

Usually when a poll is conducted for an entire country that has a population of close to 40 million people, the sample size would be much larger.
Do you need some lessons?

Are you suggesting that the sample size they used for 40,000,000 million people should not have been larger?
Yes or no answer please.

For the record, I said it needed to be larger in my response to you that you are claiming is bullshit.

I'll wait.

Phil,

I believed from your early reactions that you thought the sample size was too small for 40 Million population size, and wanted to reassure you that it was not. Whether the population is 100,000 or up into 10, 20, 30, or 40 Million, the sample size is roughly the same given the margin of error and confidence level. It doesn't change that much. (100000 requires 1514 people, for example, and 40 million requires 1537.)

But, let's get back to what the survey was saying...

Nearly three-quarters of Canadians want convoy protesters to “go home now,” according to a new survey from the Angus Reid Institute. The public opinion poll also found that more than two-thirds of Canadians think Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s actions have made the situation worse.

Now, regarding the margin of error, because the ratio they are trying to estimate is so large (75%), they don't need to be very precise. It doesn't make sense to spend the money on a more precise poll.

They are saying that if they did 100 similar polls, they would get an answer between 72.5% and 77.5% in 95 out of 100 of those polls. It's a strong indication that there isn't some vast pool of people out there who feel differently.

You seem troubled by this and want to see that it lies between 74% and 76% in those 100 polls before you believe that well over 70% of Canadians wanted the convoy protestors to "go home now."

That's great for you and for arguing for arguments sake, but not really going to add anything substantial to the knowledge on how the general public felt. They wanted it over.

Have a great day.

 

[Skoob]

Phil,

I believed from your early reactions that you thought the sample size was too small for 40 Million population size, and wanted to reassure you that it was not. Whether the population is 100,000 or up into 10, 20, 30, or 40 Million, the sample size is roughly the same given the margin of error and confidence level. It doesn't change that much. (100000 requires 1514 people, for example, and 40 million requires 1537.)

But, let's get back to what the survey was saying...



Now, regarding the margin of error, because the ratio they are trying to estimate is so large (75%), they don't need to be very precise. It doesn't make sense to spend the money on a more precise poll.

They are saying that if they did 100 similar polls, they would get an answer between 72.5% and 77.5% in 95 out of 100 of those polls. It's a strong indication that there isn't some vast pool of people out there who feel differently.

You seem troubled by this and want to see that it lies between 74% and 76% in those 100 polls before you believe that well over 70% of Canadians wanted the convoy protestors to "go home now."

That's great for you and for arguing for arguments sake, but not really going to add anything substantial to the knowledge on how the general public felt. They wanted it over.

Have a great day.

Who would you say the "general public" is? I assume you mean those polled. Who were they? Where were they from? Demographics? Political preferences, etc

I simply thought a larger sample size with a lower margin of error would be better and more accurate. That's my opinion. That's what I still maintain.

When I saw the post say 75% of Canadians, my first thought was what was the sample size and what was the MoE used. I obviously know that they wouldn't need to poll millions of people.

If that's what I would have actually thought I would have stated as such. I didn't. You are reading too far into my comments.

 

[Valcazar]

They obviously planned it because of the sample size they used. They didn't pick the number of respondents out of the air.

Yes.
They planned to interview people enough to do a MOE of 2.5%, which was a perfectly good choice for what they were trying to find out.

 

[benstt]

Who would you say the "general public" is? I assume you mean those polled. Who were they? Where were they from? Demographics? Political preferences, etc

They have lots of information on how they do their surveys.

How we poll -

The Angus Reid Institute conducts its polling entirely through online research— surveys or studies conducted on the Internet via a personal computer, tablet or smartphone. We have made the decision to conduct our research solely through online means because traditional telephone based approaches...

angusreid.org

Generally, a survey has a target population that they are trying to draw insights on. That target population will be defined in the survey parameters - could be all adults, just teens, etc, etc.

It looks like Angus Reid aims to target all adult Canadians in their surveys.

Random surveys work by choosing a random subset of the population, and using that small sample to make assessments of the views of the whole target population. By choosing the sample randomly, researchers can get very accurate predictions from a relatively small sample. They will also take care to make sure the sample is balanced across known characteristics like income, etc, so the random sample has a better chance of being representative.

All of this to say that over 70% of canadians wanted the protests over with.

 

[Valcazar]

I simply thought a larger sample size with a lower margin of error would be better and more accurate. That's my opinion. That's what I still maintain.

It would be.
But since you can get 2.5% at just over 1,000 people, and it is more than accurate enough for what you are asking, why would they waste their time trying to get 10,000 people for next to no benefit?

 

[Frankfooter]

Who would you say the "general public" is? I assume you mean those polled. Who were they? Where were they from? Demographics? Political preferences, etc

I simply thought a larger sample size with a lower margin of error would be better and more accurate. That's my opinion. That's what I still maintain.

When I saw the post say 75% of Canadians, my first thought was what was the sample size and what was the MoE used. I obviously know that they wouldn't need to poll millions of people.

If that's what I would have actually thought I would have stated as such. I didn't. You are reading too far into my comments.

You saw a poll you disagreed with and decided to discount it by saying the sample size was too small.
Even now that you know the sample size was fine you refuse to admit you were wrong or that the poll is reasonable.

 

[Skoob]

Yes.
They planned to interview people enough to do a MOE of 2.5%, which was a perfectly good choice for what they were trying to find out.

And that's the part that's left to opinion.

 

[Skoob]

They have lots of information on how they do their surveys.

How we poll -

The Angus Reid Institute conducts its polling entirely through online research— surveys or studies conducted on the Internet via a personal computer, tablet or smartphone. We have made the decision to conduct our research solely through online means because traditional telephone based approaches...

angusreid.org

Generally, a survey has a target population that they are trying to draw insights on. That target population will be defined in the survey parameters - could be all adults, just teens, etc, etc.

It looks like Angus Reid aims to target all adult Canadians in their surveys.

Random surveys work by choosing a random subset of the population, and using that small sample to make assessments of the views of the whole target population. By choosing the sample randomly, researchers can get very accurate predictions from a relatively small sample. They will also take care to make sure the sample is balanced across known characteristics like income, etc, so the random sample has a better chance of being representative.

All of this to say that over 70% of canadians wanted the protests over with.

I have stated that the nature of this poll would be special which is why a larger sample size would be warranted in my opinion.
For example, what if they polled people who were directly affected by the protest as part of that smaller sample size?

You can see various polls of different types and the results vary.

This was the article I had responded to: https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/nearly-three-quarters-of-canadians-want-convoy-protesters-to-go-home-now-survey-1.5781022

Here are others with different results:

https://www.baytoday.ca/local-news/poll-shows-sharp-divisions-over-emergencies-act-8194173

https://angusreid.org/emergency-act-review-freedom-convoy/

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/wha...cies-act-according-to-nanos-polling-1.6758343


In all cases I believe the sample size should be larger.

 

[Skoob]

You saw a poll you disagreed with and decided to discount it by saying the sample size was too small.
Even now that you know the sample size was fine you refuse to admit you were wrong or that the poll is reasonable.

I've also seen similar polls that I agree with but I still think the sample size and/or MoE should be different.
Tell me how that opinion is wrong and why your opinion is right?

I've explained my position here several times and you just rely on others to comment for you.

 

[benstt]

I have stated that the nature of this poll would be special which is why a larger sample size would be warranted in my opinion.
For example, what if they polled people who were directly affected by the protest as part of that smaller sample size?

They use other variables to try to make sure the sample is representative. People think about this stuff.

You can see various polls of different types and the results vary.

This was the article I had responded to: https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/nearly-three-quarters-of-canadians-want-convoy-protesters-to-go-home-now-survey-1.5781022

Here are others with different results:

https://www.baytoday.ca/local-news/poll-shows-sharp-divisions-over-emergencies-act-8194173

https://angusreid.org/emergency-act-review-freedom-convoy/

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/wha...cies-act-according-to-nanos-polling-1.6758343

Survey results also depend on the question asked and the timing - opinion can change.

Those later surveys ask a different question. It seems clear from the first angus reid survey that Canadians typically wanted the protestors to go home (over 70%), but were divided about using the emergencies act (closer to 50% or 60% approval of the use of the act to some degree in the later surveys.)

In all cases I believe the sample size should be larger.

Don't try to get hired as a pollster, you'll not compete due to the high cost of your proposals.

I'm not really trying to change your mind, just pointing out the flaws in your understanding of how surveys work. Others may benefit from this too.

 

[Skoob]

They use other variables to try to make sure the sample is representative. People think about this stuff.




Survey results also depend on the question asked and the timing - opinion can change.

Those later surveys ask a different question. It seems clear from the first angus reid survey that Canadians typically wanted the protestors to go home (over 70%), but were divided about using the emergencies act (closer to 50% or 60% approval of the use of the act to some degree in the later surveys.)



Don't try to get hired as a pollster, you'll not compete due to the high cost of your proposals.

I'm not really trying to change your mind, just pointing out the flaws in your understanding of how surveys work. Others may benefit from this too.

So is cost of conducting the poll more important than a more accurate outcome? Your main argument here is how much more expensive it would be?
I didn't factor that into my opinion or I would have said that they should have increased the sample size and incurred a higher cost to do so.

 

[Frankfooter]

They held a reunion today in Ottawa.
Its such a popular movement.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758986860309676222

 

[Skoob]

They held a reunion today in Ottawa.
Its such a popular movement.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758986860309676222

fyi That photo is misleading.
There were hundreds of people there and they marched peacefully through the city and just didn't hang out in front of the parliament buildings the whole day.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/loca...ll-for-two-year-anniversary-of-emergencys-act

Here a video showing the march...
https://www.ctvnews.ca/video/c28692...ry?playlistId=1.6278633&__vfz=medium=sharebar

 

[Frankfooter]

fyi That photo is misleading.
There were hundreds of people there and they marched peacefully through the city and just didn't hang out in front of the parliament buildings the whole day.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/loca...ll-for-two-year-anniversary-of-emergencys-act

Here a video showing the march...
https://www.ctvnews.ca/video/c2869284-hundreds-gather-for--freedom-convoy--anniversary?playlistId=1.6278633&__vfz=medium=sharebar

Wow, so big.
It took two years to raise that crowd?

Palestine gets this every week in most cities across the country and world.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758937013242220964

 

[Not getting younger]

They have lots of information on how they do their surveys.

How we poll -

The Angus Reid Institute conducts its polling entirely through online research— surveys or studies conducted on the Internet via a personal computer, tablet or smartphone. We have made the decision to conduct our research solely through online means because traditional telephone based approaches...

angusreid.org

Generally, a survey has a target population that they are trying to draw insights on. That target population will be defined in the survey parameters - could be all adults, just teens, etc, etc.

It looks like Angus Reid aims to target all adult Canadians in their surveys.

Random surveys work by choosing a random subset of the population, and using that small sample to make assessments of the views of the whole target population. By choosing the sample randomly, researchers can get very accurate predictions from a relatively small sample. They will also take care to make sure the sample is balanced across known characteristics like income, etc, so the random sample has a better chance of being representative.

All of this to say that over 70% of canadians wanted the protests over with.

And 65% blamed Trudeau for the way he did it.
Funny how everyone is glossing over that factoid.

 

[Skoob]

Wow, so big.
It took two years to raise that crowd?

Palestine gets this every week in most cities across the country and world.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1758937013242220964

Considering it's an anniversary 2 years later it's pretty good. No?

 

[Frankfooter]

Considering it's an anniversary 2 years later it's pretty good. No?

No.

Its pathetic if that's the biggest crowd you can manage.

 

[Skoob]

No.

Its pathetic if that's the biggest crowd you can manage.

Why would they need a bigger crowd 2 years later? It's not really a protest at this point, but more of a celebration.
At least they're commemorating something going on in their own country and perhaps a bit of an F.U. to the to the government that violated their rights.

 

[benstt]

So is cost of conducting the poll more important than a more accurate outcome? Your main argument here is how much more expensive it would be?
I didn't factor that into my opinion or I would have said that they should have increased the sample size and incurred a higher cost to do so.

Then why not survey the whole population?

 

[Not getting younger]

No.

Its pathetic if that's the biggest crowd you can manage.

if you want big crowds protesting, try this on for size. No doubt a judges decision has squat to do with it. Are you aware prior to that decision 65% of Canadians blamed him already?

Liberals see slight uptick in the polls weeks after Trudeau resignation announcement

The poll tracker is a product of the ongoing partnership between Abacus Data and the Toronto Star, launched in 2023 to continually take the pulse of Canadian voters.

www.thestar.com

And this. I’m thinking Nanos knows just a wee bit more about polls and big protest than you.