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Pro-Putin and pro-Russia thread

oil&gas

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Apr 16, 2002
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Zelensky might have learned a lesson from the history of
the Vietnam War. By early 1975 around March when the
Vietcong was closing in on Saigon and the South Vietnamese
were valiantly fighting the invaders the defenders only had
maybe one or two months of ammunition left. They were in
a hopeless situation as the U.S. was cutting back weapon
supply after withdrawal of its armies. Zelensky is being proactive
by asking France, Germany and other NATO members to set
up local arms factories in Ukraine to ensure steady supply of weapons.
 

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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Zelensky might have learned a lesson from the history of
the Vietnam War. By early 1975 around March when the
Vietcong was closing in on Saigon and the South Vietnamese
were valiantly fighting the invaders the defenders only had
maybe one or two months of ammunition left. They were in
a hopeless situation as the U.S. was cutting back weapon
supply after withdrawal of its armies. Zelensky is being proactive
by asking France, Germany and other NATO members to set
up local arms factories in Ukraine to ensure steady supply of weapons.
Why does it always read that you're more worried about fellow oil despots like Putin, than peace?
 

nottyboi

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May 14, 2008
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Oh, poor Notty. I am going to explain things to you.

Russia has been beaten repeatedly - by Germany in 1914-1917, Japan in 1905, Britain and France in 1854-1855. It was also shit kicked horrendously by Germany in the 1941-1942 period. What did Germany do wrong in 1943-1945 and the others do right?......

Russia is big. The deeper you go into Russia, the more front you have to hold. As you can't be strong everywhere, you develop weak spots in your line that the Russians can punch through. It happened like that at a little place called Stalingrad. And that weakened Germany to the extent that afterwards they could no longer hold much of anything and lost again and again.

Oh btw, The Allies LET Russia take Berlin. Know why?.......

Berlin cost the Russians a quarter-million casualties. It was a fucker to capture. The Allies didn't want to spend the men when the dum-dum Russians would capture Berlin for them.

Russia loses in border wars where its opponents can exploit Russian stupidity and incompetence and keep the front line relatively compact. Like 1914-1916 where the Germans deliberately did not attempt to actually conquer Russia and just bled it out in limited front set piece battles in Poland and the Baltics. Sort of like what the Ukrainians are doing in Ukraine.

And it works, doesn't it?... In 1916, the Russian Army fell apart after the Brusilov Offensive and the entire country collapsed.

Ditto in Manchuria in 1905 where the Japanese exploited Russian incompetence and shredded a Russian army and then simply sat on the territory they had gained.

World War Two was a war for survival of the Russian (and other Slavic races). That meant every Russian was mobilized. By 1945, 10% of the army was female in an era when women were not supposed to fight. A lot of the army was old guys or teenaged kids. Putin isn't going to ramp up conscription because of political consequences. That means that the Russian army will never develop the massive numerical superiority in Ukraine which it had over the Wehrmacht in 44-45.

You're way out of your depth in this discussion, Komrad. I'd go back to re reading old Jeremy Corbyn speeches and chatting about how amazing Stalin was with your tankie friends if I were you.
Yes Russia has had defeats at the hands of several GLOBAL POWERS. Whereas the US got defeated by Vietnam, The Taliban and Iraq (which is now a close ally of Iran thank you). I am not sure what Russias plan is for Ukraine, so far with all of NATO pouring in weapons, Russia is inflicting massive casualties on the AFU. Russia reversed pretty much all those defeats in time, and the dumb Japs still think they can get Sakhalin back lol. I think the Ukrainians should take a lesson from that. The Russian defeats in Japan were battles and the Russians also defeated them several times. People do win battles against Russia, but in the longer run its Russia that will win a decisive war with a more durable peace. This war to weaken Russia has only resulted in a much more militarized Russia with their military industries growiing output daily and their army increasing in proficiency by the minute.
 

nottyboi

Well-known member
May 14, 2008
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Zelensky might have learned a lesson from the history of
the Vietnam War. By early 1975 around March when the
Vietcong was closing in on Saigon and the South Vietnamese
were valiantly fighting the invaders the defenders only had
maybe one or two months of ammunition left. They were in
a hopeless situation as the U.S. was cutting back weapon
supply after withdrawal of its armies. Zelensky is being proactive
by asking France, Germany and other NATO members to set
up local arms factories in Ukraine to ensure steady supply of weapons.

They will be abandoned. Zelensky will be regime changed by either the USA or Russia or Ukraine.
 

mandrill

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Aug 23, 2001
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Yes Russia has had defeats at the hands of several GLOBAL POWERS. Whereas the US got defeated by Vietnam, The Taliban and Iraq (which is now a close ally of Iran thank you). I am not sure what Russias plan is for Ukraine, so far with all of NATO pouring in weapons, Russia is inflicting massive casualties on the AFU. Russia reversed pretty much all those defeats in time, and the dumb Japs still think they can get Sakhalin back lol. I think the Ukrainians should take a lesson from that. The Russian defeats in Japan were battles and the Russians also defeated them several times. People do win battles against Russia, but in the longer run its Russia that will win a decisive war with a more durable peace. This war to weaken Russia has only resulted in a much more militarized Russia with their military industries growiing output daily and their army increasing in proficiency by the minute.
Russia did not "inflict massive casualties on the AFU". If they were winning, the map would reveal Russian advances. But there have been none since the Battle of Bakhmut last winter.

Russia won battles against Japan 30 years later (Khalkin Gol) and in 1945 when the Japanese were over extended in China and unprepared for the Russia offensive in Manchuria. 30 years is a long time.

Russia lost World War One to Germany. The Germans destroyed the Russian army entirely by destroying its will to continue fighting. The Russian army and the Russian state collapsed.

Russia of course got defeated by the Taliban as well. Unlike the NATO defeat, the Taliban defeat of Russia also destroyed the Soviet state and caused its replacement by the corrupt Russian pseudo democracy which is now in place.

Russia has an abysmal record of failure in warfare.
 

oil&gas

Well-known member
Apr 16, 2002
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Ghawar
I hope they start work immediately. How do they plan to protect them?
I presume the arms shops to be set up will be financed by weapon
suppliers. Ukraine will stand to loose very little capital of their own
if those shops are destroyed by Russian bombers and missiles. That
is if human lives don't count as capital.

Ukraine could become a dumping ground for F-16 jets and other outdated
weapons even after the war. Having their own facilities for maintenance of
those weapons is a win-win for all.
 

Anbarandy

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Apr 27, 2006
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oil&gas

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The Pentagon warns Congress it is running low on money to replace weapons sent to Ukraine
Oct 02, 2023
LOLITA C. BALDOR AND TARA COPP

The Pentagon is warning Congress that it is running low on money to replace weapons the U.S. has sent to Ukraine and has already been forced to slow down resupplying some troops, according to a letter sent to congressional leaders.

The letter, obtained by The Associated Press, urges Congress to replenish funding for Ukraine. Congress averted a government shutdown by passing a short-term funding bill over the weekend, but the measure dropped all assistance for Ukraine in the battle against Russia.

Pentagon Comptroller Michael McCord told House and Senate leaders there is $1.6 billion left of the $25.9 billion Congress provided to replenish U.S. military stocks that have been flowing to Ukraine. The weapons include millions of rounds of artillery, rockets and missiles critical to Ukraine’s counteroffensive aimed at taking back territory gained by Russia in the war.

In addition, the U.S. has about $5.4 billion left to provide weapons and equipment from its stockpiles. The U.S. would have already run out of that funding if the Pentagon hadn’t realized earlier this year that it had overvalued the equipment it had already sent, freeing up about $6.2 billion. Some of that has been sent in recent months.

McCord said the U.S. has completely run out of long-term funding for Kyiv through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which providesmoney to contract for future weapons.

“We have already been forced to slow down the replenishment of our own forces to hedge against an uncertain funding future,” McCord said in the letter. “Failure to replenish our military services on a timely basis could harm our military’s readiness.”

He added that without additional funding now, the U.S. will have to delay or curtail air defense weapons, ammunition, drones and demolition and breaching equipment that are “critical and urgent now as Russia prepares to conduct a winter offensive.”

President Joe Biden said Sunday that while the aid will keep flowing for now, time is running out.

“We cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support for Ukraine to be interrupted,” Biden said. “We have time, not much time, and there’s an overwhelming sense of urgency.”

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said if the aid doesn’t keep flowing, Ukrainian resistance will begin to weaken.

“If there’s no new money, they’re going to start feeling it by Thanksgiving,” he said.

The short-term funding bill passed by Congress lasts only until mid-November. And McCord said it would be too risky for the Defense Department to divert money from that temporary funding bill to pay for more aid to Ukraine.

Many lawmakers acknowledge that winning approval for Ukraine assistance in Congress is growing more difficult as the war grinds on and resistance to the aid from the Republican hard-right flank gains momentum.

 

mandrill

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Putin facing mutiny from frontline fighters he recruited from Russian prisons (msn.com)


Agroup of Russian fighters sent to the most dangerous areas of the frontline have refused to fight for Vladimir Putin in protest over the appalling way they are treated.

Dubbed as ‘Storm-Z’ squads, the units are thrown together with a mix of convicts from Russian prisons and regular soldiers who are effectively demoted as punishment for allegedly being either ‘drunk’ or ‘on drugs’.

Their job is quite simple, according to five of the fighters and eight others who have either worked closely with or alongside them – they are the men deployed to the most perilous warzones.

And their fate is almost inevitable.

‘Storm fighters, they’re just meat,’ said one regular soldier from army unit no. 40318, who was sent to the fiercely contested city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine in May and June.


Vladimir Putin has vowed ‘nothing and no-one’ will stop him achieving ‘victory’ in Ukraine, as one of his top cronies hinted Russia could seek to seize more parts. Putin, 71, appeared with an unexplained blotch on his forehead for an address marking the first anniversary of its annexation of four Ukrainian regions (Picture: EPA)
He said he disobeyed a commander who told him to leave behind a group of six or seven wounded Storm-Z fighters in order to give them medical treatment on the battlefield.


Quite why the commander gave the order to abandon their own men, he doesn’t know – but claimed that it typified how Storm-Z fighters were considered of lesser value than ordinary troops by officers.

The soldier, who requested anonymity through fear of prosecution in Russia for publicly discussing the war, said he had sympathy for the men’s plight: ‘If the commandants catch anyone with the smell of alcohol on their breath, then they immediately send them to the Storm squads.’

But it’s the brutal way they are treated that led to a revolt among one company of Storm-Z fighters who decided they’d had enough.

Three months ago, what was once a squad of around 150 men, who were part of unit no. 22179, stood battered, bruised and weary with only around 20 of them still alive.

Only a handful live to tell their tale, and these men were evidence of that – and on June 28 they recorded a video explaining why they refuse to continue fighting.


Storm-Z fighters are recruited from prisons like those pictured here, which also include conscripts, mercenaries and Wagner militia (Picture: Getty Images)

Storm-Z fighters are recruited from prisons like those pictured here, which also include conscripts, mercenaries and Wagner militia (Picture: Getty Images)© Provided by Metro
One soldier said: ‘After the brutal battles, after everything we saw, here are the guys who remain.

‘On the frontline, where we’ve been, we did not get deliveries of ammunition. We did not get water or food. The injured were not taken away: still now the dead are rotting.

‘We’re given dreadful orders that are not even worth carrying out. Now they came to us and said: “Guys, we need to go to the front.”

‘Again to the meat grinder where we have already been. And we will never return from this.’

He added. ‘We refuse to continue carrying out combat missions.’


Fighters from a Storm-Z squad explained in a video on June 28 that they will no longer fight in Ukraine in protest at treatment by their commanders (Picture: Reuters)

Fighters from a Storm-Z squad explained in a video on June 28 that they will no longer fight in Ukraine in protest at treatment by their commanders (Picture: Reuters)© Provided by Metro
The outcome of their mutiny? Many of the fighters involved were beaten by Russian military police officers as punishment, according to two relatives of the men.

Putin did make reference to convicts fighting in the regular army on Friday at a televised meeting with a small group of regular Russian servicemen.

He said he was aware that two of their comrades, former prison inmates, had been killed in action.

‘They gave their lives for the motherland and have fully absolved themselves of their guilt,’ said Putin, adding that the convicts’ families would be given help, without elaborating further.

But the grim reality of what these men face on the ground is brutal with at least five Storm-Z teams identified as having fought to repel the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east and the south.


Three of the five Storm-Z fighters and the relatives of three others described nightmare engagements that saw much of their squads wiped out.

One fighter, with a conviction for theft who was recruited from prison, said all but 15 of the 120 men in his unit embedded with the 237th regiment were killed or wounded in fighting near Bakhmut in June.

What are Russian Storm-Z units?
Storm-Z units come under the direct command of the Russian defence ministry and comprise of convicts who volunteer to fight in exchange for the promise of a pardon, as well as regular soldiers who are being punished for disciplinary breaches.

They are seen as useful because they can be deployed as expendable infantry, according to Conflict Intelligence Team, an independent organisation that’s tracking the war.


Russian prisoners like these get placed in penal military units, known as Storm-Z, and sent to the frontline to fight (Picture: Getty Images)

Russian prisoners like these get placed in penal military units, known as Storm-Z, and sent to the frontline to fight (Picture: Getty Images)© Provided by Metro
‘The Storm fighters are just sent to the most dangerous parts of the front, in defence and in attack,’ the group said.

While the Russian defence ministry has never acknowledged creating Storm-Z units, the first reports of their existence emerged in April when the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think-tank, cited what it said appeared to be a leaked Russian military report on the formation of the squads.

Russian state-controlled media has reported that Storm-Z squads exist, that they took part in intense battles, and some of their members received medals for bravery, but it has not disclosed how they are formed, or the losses they take.


Artyom Shchikin, 29, was recruited to a Storm-Z unit from jail but has been missing since June (Picture: Reuters)

Artyom Shchikin, 29, was recruited to a Storm-Z unit from jail but has been missing since June (Picture: Reuters)© Provided by Metro
Artyom Shchikin, a 29-year-old from the Mordovia region in central Russia, was serving a two-year sentence for robbery handed down in December 2021 when defence ministry recruiters came to his jail asking if inmates wanted to go and fight in Ukraine, according to court records and two of his relatives.

He signed up because, even though he was scheduled for release in December this year, he wanted to wipe clean his criminal record and earn money so his family could renovate their home, his family members said.

Three Storm-Z fighters said they were offered wages of about 200,000 roubles (£1,675) per month, though said they had been paid roughly half that amount, on average.

By May this year, Shchikin was assigned to a penal unit within the 291st Guards Motorised Rifle Regiment and deployed to the Zaporizhzhia region in southern Ukraine, where Kyiv’s forces are trying to break through Russian defences, the relatives added.

Shchikin’s relatives last heard from him on June 18. Days later, his unit’s positions came under Ukrainian fire, the relatives said, citing conversations with two survivors from Shchikin’s squad.

Three comrades who had been in a trench with him were killed, another had his hand torn off, while Shchikin himself is missing, the relatives said. His body hasn’t been recovered.

Shchikin’s relatives said when they asked the defence ministry for answers about his fate, it either didn’t respond or didn’t give any definitive answers.

‘They were from a Storm unit. For them, no one is going to be in a rush,’ said one relative.

Since the revolt by the soldiers who refused to carry on fighting, two fighters told relatives conditions had improved but they did not know when they would be allowed to quit the military.


Storm-Z Russian prisoners are reportedly being held in up to 50 sites around Ukraine (Picture: Getty Images)

Storm-Z Russian prisoners are reportedly being held in up to 50 sites around Ukraine (Picture: Getty Images)© Provided by Metro
According to Russian legislation on military discipline, a soldier can only be transferred to a penal unit if convicted by a military court.


None of the people interviewed who told of soldiers being sent to Storm-Z units said the men had participated in a court hearing.

Last week, the soldier from unit no. 40318 said there were no court hearings involved in such transfers.

The Geneva convention, a set of international rules of war, doesn’t cover soldiers being punished by their own side.

All those who discussed the Storm-Z units requested anonymity, citing fear of reprisal in Russia.

Multiple Russian figures have been contacted for comment but refused, including an officer at unit no. 40318 and an official with the regimental headquarters.

The Kremlin referred questions to the Russian defence ministry, which didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Russian officials have made no public comment about the incident involving the Storm-Z squad, which refused to fight any longer.

Ukraine’s government has said it also releases some convicts if they agree to fight in the war.

The family member of one of the soldiers in the revolt, a man from Siberia who had volunteered to join Storm-Z from prison, said she dreaded news from the front.

She said: ‘My God, let this end soon.’

It emerged last week that Putin has also recruited another 130,000 conscripts, with some as young as 18.
 
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oil&gas

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Biden tries to reassure allies of continued US support for Ukraine after Congress drops aid request
Oct 03, 2023

President Joe Biden gathered other world powers Tuesday to coordinate on Ukraine as it battles Russia in a war now almost 20 months long — a deliberate show of U.S. support at a time when the future of its aid is entangled with a volatile faction of House Republicans who want to cut off money to Kyiv.

The phone call — convened by the United States and joined by key allies in Europe as well as the leaders of Canada and Japan — was held three days after Biden signed legislation hastily sent to him by Congress that kept the federal government funded but left off billions in funding for Ukraine’s war effort that the White House had vigorously backed.

All the countries that participated in the call stressed that their backing of Ukraine remains unchanged, and no one questioned whether U.S. support of Kyiv was in doubt, according to the White House. But the administration sternly warned Tuesday that Congress must not let the flow of aid be disrupted, lest Russian President Vladimir Putin exploit any lapses to his advantage.

“Time is not our friend,” said John Kirby, the spokesman for the National Security Council at the White House. He warned that any gaps in U.S. support “will make Putin believe he can wait us out.”

Kirby said the current tranche of congressionally-approved U.S. aid would be enough to help Ukraine for another “couple of weeks” or a “couple of months,” although the precise estimate would hinge on current battlefield conditions.

The outlook for the future of Ukraine aid has been murky at best after Biden on Saturday signed a bill to fund U.S. government operations through mid-November that ignored the billions in additional funds for Kyiv requested by Biden in late August. The president, as well as congressional Democratic leaders, have stressed that they expect House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to follow through on his public commitment to Ukraine aid even as Republican resistance to it continues.

Biden went as far as to imply that he had a deal with McCarthy to move Ukraine aid once the government was funded, although the speaker has denied that is the case and the White House has refused to elaborate on the president’s remarks. Meanwhile, McCarthy signaled over the weekend that he supports linking new Ukraine funding to security improvements at the U.S. border with Mexico. Kirby said Tuesday that the White House supports both issues on their own merits but not tied together.

McCarthy’s grip on his own job was also in question Tuesday, and even as the White House said it was staying out of his fight to keep the speaker’s gavel, Kirby emphasized that other House GOP leaders support Ukraine aid, not just McCarthy himself.

In Poland, President Andrzej Duda said after the call that Biden had assured the group of continued U.S. support for Ukraine and of his strong conviction that Congress will not walk away.

“Everyone took the floor. The main subject was Ukraine, the situation in Ukraine,” Duda said at a news conference in Kielce, Poland. “President Joe Biden began with telling us about the situation in the U.S. and what is the real political situation around Ukraine. He assured us that there is backing for the continuing support for Ukraine, first of all for the military support. He said that he will get that backing in the Congress.”

Duda said Biden assured the leaders that support for Ukraine in the U.S. Congress is much broader than media reports suggest. He said Biden called on the participants to continue their support for Ukraine and that everyone assured him that they would.

Kirby added that the other leaders weren’t concerned about whether U.S. would stop backing Ukraine: “They understand what’s going up on Capitol Hill,” he said.

Others on the call included the leaders of Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, Romania, Britain, the European Commission and the European Council. France’s foreign minister also participated, the White House said. French President Emmanuel Macron was not available due to scheduling issues, according to a U.S. administration official.

The group also discussed how to provide Ukraine with the weapons support and strengthen its air defenses, as well as shoring up its energy infrastructure as the nation girds for a cold winter. The leaders also strategized on how to marshal private donations to aid Ukraine’s economic recovery, according to a White House readout of the call.

“Everyone was saying that this is the next step that will be necessary and for which preparations should begin now,” Duda said of the leaders’ discussion on helping to rebuild Ukraine.

As the White House made its case for continued aid to Ukraine, lawmakers and military veterans rallied outside the U.S. Capitol to make their own call to keep up the funding. Many argued stopping U.S. support to Ukraine would embolden Russia and other rivals to invade other democratic allies after Ukraine, and draw U.S. forces into direct conflict.

Retired Brig. Gen. Mark Arnold, a veteran of the special forces, told the crowd that “the world is watching this debate about abandoning Ukraine.”

“Retreats to isolationism do not work,” Arnold said. China and Russia and other adversaries “will all rise in strength if Ukraine is defeated.”

The exclusion of money for Ukraine came little more than a week after lawmakers met in the Capitol with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He sought to assure them that his military was winning the war, but stressed that additional assistance would be crucial.


Voting in the House last week pointed to the potential trouble ahead. Nearly half of House Republicans voted to cut from a defense spending bill $300 million to train Ukrainian soldiers and buy weapons. The money later was approved separately, but opponents of Ukraine support celebrated their growing numbers.

The U.S. has approved four rounds of aid to Ukraine in response to Russia’s invasion, totaling about $113 billion, with some of that money going toward replenishment of U.S. military equipment that was sent to the front lines. In August, Biden called on Congress to provide for an additional $24 billion.

 

oil&gas

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BEYOND THE NEOCON DEBACLE TO PEACE IN UKRAINE
Oct 03, 2023
Jeffrey D. Sachs

We are entering the end stage of the 30-year US neocon debacle in Ukraine. The neocon plan to surround Russia in the Black Sea region by NATO has failed. Decisions now by the US and Russia will matter enormously for peace, security, and wellbeing for the entire world.

Four events have shattered the neocon hopes for NATO enlargement eastward, to Ukraine, Georgia, and onward. The first is straightforward. Ukraine has been devastated on the battlefield, with tragic and appalling losses. Russia is winning the war of attrition, an outcome that was predictable from the start but which the neocons and mainstream media deny till today.

The second is the collapsing support in Europe for the US neocon strategy. Poland no longer speaks with Ukraine. Hungary has long opposed the neocons. Slovakia has elected an anti-neocon government. EU leaders (Macron, Meloni, Sanchez, Scholz, Sunak, and others) have disapproval ratings far higher than approvals.

The third is the cut in US financial support for Ukraine. The Republican Party grassroots, several Republican Presidential candidates, and a growing number of Republican members of Congress, oppose more spending on Ukraine. In the stop-gap bill to keep the government running, Republicans stripped away new financial support for Ukraine. The White House has called for new aid legislation, but this will be an uphill fight.

The fourth, and most urgent from Ukraine’s point of view, is the likelihood of a Russian offensive. Ukraine’s casualties are in the hundreds of thousands, and Ukraine has burned through its artillery, air defenses, tanks, and others heavy weapons. Russia is likely to follow with a massive offensive.

The neocons have created utter disasters in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now Ukraine. The US political system has not yet held the neocons to account, since foreign policy is carried out with little public or Congressional scrutiny to date. Mainstream media have sided with the slogans of the neocons.

Ukraine is at risk of economic, demographic and military collapse. What should the US Government do to face this potential disaster?

Urgently, it should change course. Britain advises the US to escalate, as Britain is stuck with 19th century imperial reveries. US neocons are stuck with imperial bravado. Cooler heads urgently need to prevail.

President Joe Biden should immediately inform President Vladimir Putin that the US will end NATO enlargement eastward if the US and Russia reach a new agreement on security arrangements. By ending NATO expansion, the US can still save Ukraine from the policy debacles of the past 30 years.

Biden should agree to negotiate a security arrangement of the kind, though not precise details, of President Putin’s proposals of December 17, 2021. Biden foolishly refused to negotiate with Putin in December 2021. It’s time to negotiate now.

There are four keys to an agreement. First, as part of an overall agreement Biden should agree that NATO will not enlarge eastward, but not reverse the past NATO enlargement. NATO would of course not tolerate Russian encroachments in existing NATO states. Both Russia and the US would pledge to avoid provocations near Russia’s borders, including provocative missile placement, military exercises, and the like.

Second, the new US – Russia security agreement should cover nuclear weapons. The US unilateral withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, followed by the placement of Aegis missiles in Poland and Romania, gravely inflamed tensions, which were further exacerbated by the US withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Force (INF) Agreement in 2019 and Russia’s suspension of the New Start Treaty in 2023. Russian leaders have repeatedly pointed to US missiles near Russia, unconstrained by the abandoned ABM Treaty, as a dire threat to Russia’s national security.

Third, Russia and Ukraine would agree on new borders, in which the overwhelmingly ethnic Russian Crimea and heavily ethnic Russian districts of eastern Ukraine would remain part of Russia. The border changes would be accompanied by security guarantees for Ukraine backed unanimously by the UN Security Council and other states such as Germany, Turkey, and India.

Fourth, as part of a settlement, the US, Russia, and EU would re-establish trade, finance, cultural exchange, and tourist relations. It’s certainly time once again to hear Rachmaninoff and Tchaikovsky in US and European concert halls.

Border changes are a last resort, and should be made UN Security Council auspices. They must never be an invitation to further territorial demands, such as by Russia regarding ethnic Russians in other countries. Yet borders change, and the US has recently backed two border changes. NATO bombed Serbia for 47 days until it relinquished the Albanian-majority region of Kosovo. In 2008, the US recognized Kosovo as a sovereign nation. The US similarly backed South Sudan’s insurgency to break away from Sudan.

If Russia, Ukraine, or the US subsequently violated the new agreement, they would be challenging the rest of the world. As JFK observed, “even the most hostile nations can be relied upon to accept and keep those treaty obligations, and only those treaty obligations, which are in their own interest.”

The US neocons carry much blame for undermining Ukraine’s 1991 borders. Russia did not claim Crimea until after the US-backed overthrow of Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Nor did Russia annex the Donbas after 2014, instead calling on Ukraine to honor the UN-backed Minsk II agreement, based on autonomy for the Donbas. The neocons preferred to arm Ukraine to retake the Donbas by force rather than grant the Donbas autonomy.

The long-term key to peace in Europe is collective security as called for by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). According to OSCE agreements, OSCE member states “will not strengthen their security at the expense of the security of other States.” Neocon unilateralism undermined Europe’s collective security by pushing NATO enlargement without regard to third parties, notably Russia. Europe — including the EU, Russia, and Ukraine — needs more OSCE and less neocon unilateralism as key to lasting peace in Europe.

 

oil&gas

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Is US funding for Ukraine under threat?
Oct 04, 2023
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How does Elon Musk fit into this equation?

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The US has thus far been a major backer of Kyiv, providing over $113bn in military, humanitarian and economic aid. Military spending, which accounts for more than half of US aid, pays for the drones, tanks and missiles crucial to the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive. Humanitarian assistance provides for medical supplies and essentials like food and safe drinking water for the displaced population.

Republican opponents of aid argue that the money should be spent on domestic concerns, such as border security, law and order, and relief for climate-related natural disasters hitting the country with increasing frequency. Aid to Ukraine is a considerable fraction of the $773bn defence budget request for 2023. It is far more than the $25bn slated for border security this year — a key bugbear for conservatives.
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