Leafs '22/'23 Thread

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superstar_88

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smuddan said:
What“realistic expectations “ are totally subjective. The point of contention here is will or should Dubas be fired if the Leafs don’t have good run in the playoffs this year. Again what constitutes a success or failure is subject to personal opinionts. Perhaps with your realistic expectations you think he should stay on even if they get bounced in the first round again ?

I think the fact that his expiring contract hasn’t been renewed is an indication that he will be fired if that happens, how many rounds they have to win to save his job only the board members know.
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Realistic as in Leafs are one of several teams that can win it.
32 teams in the league and only 1 winner.
16 teams make the playoffs and only 1 winner.
Leafs have played 9 series clinching games in the last 5 seasons.
Realistic expectation is it'll go 7 games in round 1 vs TB.
We'll see if Kerfoot has learned not to make boneheaded plays.
We'll see the new set of bottom 6 players can pot some goals in game 7 like Nick Paul did.
We'll see if O'Rielly is injured like Foligno was.

Look at what happened to Florida.
They improved for several years now and I would say got to a point last year where they were on par with the Leafs.
They pick up the all mighty Matt Tkatchuk and what happens.
They won't even make the playoffs.
Calgary with Matt Tkatchuk didn't do much in the playoffs either.
There are no guarantees.
 
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harrypalm

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Bad luck and bad refs always at play.
Last year we had….
Muzzin goes down.
Kerfoot’s stick rises up on Hedman
Holl interference call while JT scores
something always gives , let’s hope it gives our way this time.
 
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superstar_88

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Let's say Leafs are 60 40 favourites for every series they play and I think that is being very generous.
So against TB they are 60% to win.
Next up Boston. Leafs are still 60% to win. Ludicrous I know.
So the odds of beating both TB and Boston as favourites for both series are 36% (60% of 60%).
Next up the NYR. Leafs are 60% favourites again.
To beat TB, Boston,, NYR all as favourites Leafs are 21.6% to do it.
Finally Leafs face Dallas as 60% favourites.
To beat all 4 teams Leafs are 12.96% to do it and this as a 60% favourite for all 4 series.
So Leafs winning the cup even as favourites against every team they play is not a realistic expectation.

Put in another way:
As favourites they are 40% to lose in round 1
24% to lose in round 2
14.4% to lose in round 3 and
8.64% to lose in the finals
for a total of losing in either round 1, 2, 3, or finals of 87.04%
So as favourites for every series they play Leafs are 87.04% not to win the cup.
That is the realistic expectation if you think Leafs are favourites against every team.
 
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redshank

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superstar_88 said:
Let's say Leafs are 60 40 favourites for every series they play and I think that is being very generous.
So against TB they are 60% to win.
Next up Boston. Leafs are still 60% to win. Ludicrous I know.
So the odds of beating both TB and Boston as favourites for both series are 36% (60% of 60%).
Next up the NYR. Leafs are 60% favourites again.
To beat TB, Boston,, NYR all as favourites Leafs are 21.6% to do it.
Finally Leafs face Dallas as 60% favourites.
To beat all 4 teams Leafs are 12.96% to do it and this as a 60% favourite for all 4 series.
So Leafs winning the cup even as favourites against every team they play is not a realistic expectation.

Put in another way:
As favourites they are 40% to lose in round 1
24% to lose in round 2
14.4% to lose in round 3 and
8.64% to lose in the finals
for a total of losing in either round 1, 2, 3, or finals of 87.04%
So as favourites for every series they play Leafs are 87.04% not to win the cup.
That is the realistic expectation if you think Leafs are favourites against every team.
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glamphotographer

glamphotographer

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Leafs could lose O'Reilly and Matthews isn't %100. Leafs may have to test the AHL depth, Pontus Holmberg looked good. Tampa could lose Hedman. That time of year. Throw the regular season out the window. The healthiest team goes the farthest in the playoffs.
 
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superstar_88

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glamphotographer said:
Leafs could lose O'Reilly and Matthews isn't %100. Leafs may have to test the AHL depth, Pontus Holmberg looked good. Tampa could lose Hedman. That time of year. Throw the regular season out the window. The healthiest team goes the farthest in the playoffs.
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Of course throw the regular season out the window.
Regular season you're playing 31 other teams for a 6 month period. The lineup is not the same for each and every game. Injuries trades, callups, etc.
Playoffs you're playing same team for up to 7 games straight in a 2 week span. Do that 4 times max. With a lineup that was loaded up at the deadline and of course injuries. No cap in playoffs also.

Leafs suffered when Muzzin was injured, twice. Hence the Defense depth acquired this year.
A prime example is the year TB got 128 pts and lost to Columbus in 4 straight. That year Hedman played in the regular season but was injured and didn't play in the playoffs. Columbus also loaded up and beat TB 4 straight. Without Hedman TB was done. He's a Conn Smythe winner for a reason.
 
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superstar_88

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redshank said:
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Synposis:
Leafs as 60 40 favourites for every series they play are expected to win the cup only 12.96% of the time.
Hence the realistic expectation even if you think Leafs are superior to every other team is to NOT win the cup.
 
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John Wick

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smuddan said:
What“realistic expectations “ are totally subjective. The point of contention here is will or should Dubas be fired if the Leafs don’t have good run in the playoffs this year. Again what constitutes a success or failure is subject to personal opinionts. Perhaps with your realistic expectations you think he should stay on even if they get bounced in the first round again ?

I think the fact that his expiring contract hasn’t been renewed is an indication that he will be fired if that happens, how many rounds they have to win to save his job only the board members know.
Click to expand...
In order for Dubas to be re-signed, I think the Leafs need to make it to the third round and go at least 6-7 games deep in that series. Anything after that is not likely something you can drop on the GM's shoulders if it doesn't pan out all the way.
 
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glamphotographer

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Leafs lineup vs NJD


Kerfoot-Matthews-Marner
Jarnkrok-Lafferty-Nylander
AstonReese-Kampf-Acciari
Bunting-Holmberg-Steeves
Extra: Tavares (extras grey sweater)
Absent: O’Reilly
McCabe-Brodie
Giordano-Holl
Rielly-Liljegren
Extra: Gustafsson-Timmins
Absent: Schenn (birth of child)
 
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smuddan

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John Wick said:
In order for Dubas to be re-signed, I think the Leafs need to make it to the third round and go at least 6-7 games deep in that series. Anything after that is not likely something you can drop on the GM's shoulders if it doesn't pan out all the way.
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In response to those who seem to think bad luck was the main reason for the team’s repeated playoff failures, I would use the same logic to counter that in each of the past four playoff/play in series, the team had no worse than 50/50 chance against Washington, Columbus, Montreal and Tampa and they failed each time. The straight odds for that to happen would be 1 in 16 chances, not to mention that lost in similar fashion, i.e. had the lead and home ice advantage in the clinching game but choked at the most crucial moments.

That goes beyond just bad luck. Luck balances out in the long run and repeated failures over 4 seasons are a clear indication that this team as constructed by Dubas was not good enough for the playoffs.

One of my major complaints on Dubas was his ignorance of the importance of grit and toughness. His blue print for building a cup contender is totally based on skills and speed. I give him credit for finally trying to address that this year with some of the new additions but that’s too little too late imo.

‘’My second biggest complaint has been the imbalance of talents between offence and defence. I can’t think of any cup winner that didn’t have matching talent on defence to support the offence. With this Leaf defence core there’s nobody who has the matching talent of the four top forwards. That’s why the Leafs‘ offence was so easy to shut down in the playoffs because they get no support from a stud d man.

‘’Dubas’ trade annd drafting also leave a lot to be desired. The cupboard of blue chip prospects is pretty bare. There are a lot of hypes in Knies but until we actually see him play, he remains a suspect just like those over hyped rookies that we’ve seen time and again.

Nothing will please me more if this team goes on to win the cup and proves the big moron I am for being so anti Dubas, but I’ve been saying the same things since he was hired and I have yet to see any indication that I was wrong.
 
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superstar_88

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Washington: Leafs core of Matthews, Marner, Nylander were all rookies and Washington was the top team in the East and Leafs were wildcard
Boston twice: Boston was a powerhouse. Core was still developing
Columbus: Once Muzzin was injured tide turned to Columbus. Remember Marincin.
Montreal: Tavares injured, Foligno injured but what really hurt them was Muzzin injured again and didn't play game 7. Total goals scored by Toronto 18, total goals scored by Montreal 14. Both games 5 and 6 went to OT.
TB: Leafs scored 24 goals. TB scored 23 goals. Game 6 went to OT and game 7 was 2-1. It could have went either way.

Bottom line the issue could very well be with the core of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Rielly. I don't think this is a championship calibre core. More specifically Tavares is too slow and Rielly can't defend and he's not really elite offensively either. Until they show they can get it done in a series clinching game they cannot.
 
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John Wick

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NJD 4 - TML 1
 
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superstar_88

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Boston with Bergeron has been a perenially good team but they only won the cup once.
Same for St. Louis.
Same for Washington.
Same for Colorado with Mckinnon
Same for Carolina.
SJ perenially good team with Thornton in his prime that never won.
Anaheim with Getzlaf only won once.
Ultimately even if you're a "contender" and worthy you still need a good run to win the cup.
During the 10 year period when LA, Pittsburgh, and Chicago were winning all the cups it wasn't just one team winning it even though they were worthy. There are other teams who are equally as worthy.
 
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Darts

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John Tavares
First they move him to wing. Now he is ill (nature undisclosed) .
 
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shack

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Darts said:
John Tavares
First they move him to wing. Now he is ill (nature undisclosed) .
Click to expand...
You make it sound like there's some causality to him getting sick or a there's a string of bad things happening to him one after the other.

What's your point?
 
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