NFL Week 14
- Thread starter dirtydaveiii
- Start date
Dolphins @ Chargers : The Fins are the 2nd best passing team in the league and are 9th against the rush. The rest of the fins stats area near the bottom of the league. The Chargers are the 6th best passing team and very poor in all other categories. The Fins havent beat a winning team since september 25th but the Chargers havent beaten a winning team all year. This is a tough game to pick. Miami is 5-1 in their last 6 while LA is 2-4. This game is a must win for the Chargers to keep a playoff run alive and its games like this that will determine Herberts fate as an elite passer and Tua also to a certain extend. These are the types of games both teams need to win to be considered viable in the playoffs. Miami is 3-3 on the road and the Chargers 2-3 at home. This game could easily go either way.
LAC - 28 MIA - 26
LAC - 28 MIA - 26
How many of those are with Belichick? This is a silly stat as Brady doesnt do the defensive planning.
Pats @ Cards : The Patriots somehow are still in playoff running while the Cardinals are not. Arizona is 1-6 at home while the Pats are 3-3 on the road. Neither team has good offensive stats but the Pats defense is one of the better units in the league. Never bet against Bill in December.
New England 23 - Arizona 17
New England 23 - Arizona 17
I made 4 bets today.
I agree with DD. How can the Lions be favoured? It looks too easy to take the Vikes plus points, so I took Detroit.
Giants and Denver are home dogs to division rivals with spreads between 7 and 10 (dogs between 7 and 10 cover more than dogs over 10), so I took them.
And in a battle of Texas, the dynamics are similar to a division rivalry and the 16 points is too much to not take along with the fact that AFC covers more than NFC in games between the conferences. Houston.
As always, these are wild guesses with no game analysis. I only analyze the history of spreads.
I agree with DD. How can the Lions be favoured? It looks too easy to take the Vikes plus points, so I took Detroit.
Giants and Denver are home dogs to division rivals with spreads between 7 and 10 (dogs between 7 and 10 cover more than dogs over 10), so I took them.
And in a battle of Texas, the dynamics are similar to a division rivalry and the 16 points is too much to not take along with the fact that AFC covers more than NFC in games between the conferences. Houston.
As always, these are wild guesses with no game analysis. I only analyze the history of spreads.
There was talk on ESPN that since the early lines were out, there was a lot of "sharp money" bet on the Lions. I was watching the Buffalo game, but I think the Lions
were covering for most of the game. I didn't believe that the rumours of insiders betting on the Lions was true , so I took MIN + 15 points to be safe . Back door cover on the last drive.
Actually, I reported my bets wrong. I never bet on the Lions. I ended betting on the Jets instead. I'd been watching the Lions game and was feeling good. I then checked the bets I'd made at the half and discovered my error. At that point, the Bills were ahead of the Jets by a good margin, and I was pissed. As it turned out a very late field goal by the Jets got me under the spread. Only the fucking G-Men crapped out on me today.
So, as it turns out, I was 4 for 5 on my picks (3 for 4 on the actual bets I did make) without any football analysis of the circumstances surrounding any of the games. All I looked at was the spreads for dogs, home teams, division rivalries, etc. The only exception was the Lions game where the spread seemed illogical. And I went against what logic would dictate. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is. But I still didn't analyse the teams aside from looking at their records.
I'll probably pull an O-fer next week.
Tampa Bay, Seattle and Tennessee were my on my losing tickets. Bet a monster teaser and saved my Sunday. . .
That SF Tampa game was a real surprise. Let's see how that Purdy kid does over the remainder of the season.
Thanks, but if I bet on them in any way they will go 0 for 4.
I"ve been a Packers fan since Favre days but the very first NFL team I cheered for in my teens was the Cincinnati Bengals. Boomer, Ickey & the gang. So no doubt I was cheering for them in last years SB.
TB stinks that should be a relatively easy win. And with a bit of exertion so should the NE game.
The Ravens are a divisional match up and they always pose a challenge. But I think the Bengals are a better all around team.
Buffalo will obviously pose the stiffest challenge.
I had been riding the Lions train I just thought the Vikings would exploit Detroit's putrid defense.
Nice. U.S. Thanksgiving game vs the Bills, they could have won that game too since the Lions were playing soft defense awaiting OT but Allen went over it
in the last 30 seconds like KC does. Week 15 vs a banged up White or washed up Flacco, I'd bet them again.
