Taylor hasn't been that good this year. I just think the Colts have enough on D to keep this within a FG. It should be an ugly low scoring affair. I do like the under.
NFL week 9
- Thread starter dirtydaveiii
- Start date
.Time honored tradition of the Bills defying the odds. Everybody in Buffalo bragging about a super bowl lock in and how the millions of taxpayer dollars to be spent on a new stadium is a great investment. No joy in Mudville today, but the bookies cleaned up...
Actually, the bookies don't like to gamble. They'd prefer to have the same amount bet on each team so that they are guaranteed a 5% profit on the total amount wagered.
If, as you say, they cleaned up, it means that they had way more money bet on Buffalo. Had Buffalo covered, they would have taken a bath. As I said, they don't like to be put in that situation. Many times, bookies will lay off some of their action onto other bookies so that each can be in a more balanced position.
Contrary to what most people think the bookies set the line not to what they believe a team will win by but rather the spread that will attract the most bettors
I'd say, which goes back to my point, they set the spread such that they get equal money bet on each side. Getting the most bettors is not desirable if they get too many bettors betting on one of the teams. That is a risky proposition.
Las Vegas moves the spread to adjust for too much action, sometimes it's mixture of spread and vig. They try and balance out the betting on both sides or they have to farm out some of the liability. In a perfect world most teams gravitate towards 50% numbers ATS ( against the spread ). Take advantage of the top/bottom teams until all the numbers even out. Use the below ATS trend updates to monitor the best/worst ATS teams and their MOV ( margin of victory). Good luck !
www.teamrankings.com
NFL Team ATS Trends - All Games
Free NFL football team ats trends and splits in simple, easy to read tables. This page tracks all games results.
www.teamrankings.com
Whenever my cash balance starts to dwindle and I need to bet more conservative to get my balance back up, I bet on Teasers. Buying up or down the spread by 6 to 13 points. Yes, the payout is smaller, but if you pick games that trade TD's and no blowouts, you can win every single time. See attached for a recent bet, I bought 13 points and parlayed two games, my picks were KC at TEN, KC - 0.5 , KC over 32.5, Saints + 15 and Saints over 34.0. A lucky late Saints back door cover kept this parlay alive. It's cheap fun and you're within the spreads most of the time. If you want a bigger payout , just buy 7 points vs my 13. Good luck all !
Attachments
Free Week 10 parlay : Chargers + 20, Rams + 10, Boys + 8, Bears + 10 , KC + 3.5 , Minny + 16 ( beware of blowout games, but Allen seems to be on the take
for the last two games , note especially in the GB red zone 2x and he threw a pick right to the defender, same in the Jets game . He claims his arm was sore. )
for the last two games , note especially in the GB red zone 2x and he threw a pick right to the defender, same in the Jets game . He claims his arm was sore. )
Hardly pays, I use that strategy just to increase my website Cash Balance after a few upsets.
4 game buying 7 points : + 200
4 game buying 13 points : - 140 ( they call this a Monster Teaser Parlay, coined from LV casinos ).
Not all sites let you tease every sport or league. Example CFL . . .
