So much for the big red wave
- Thread starter dirtydaveiii
- Start date
I could say many things. It has beautiful scenery. It's a cultural and economic powerhouse. It is one of the most innovative places on the planet. They are taking a leadership role in the fight against climate change. They are working on having single-payer health insurance and other initiatives that would benefit the lower and middle class significantly.
Only someone who was irrational would ignore all that and focus on the states issues. And, yes, it has a lot. It has a major homeless problem and really high housing costs, it is facing a significant drought which could seriously damage its agricultural sector. But, with all these issues, its still better than virtually all the GOP led states in the union. I'd be curious to hear what you think is a better 'red' state?
But where are they going? Out of state of a different part of the state? San Francisco is a lovely city, but crazy expensive now. Are these folks going to move to Berkley, Oakland, Freemont, San Jose? San Bernardino? Who knows. It doesn't say they are leaving Cali or moving to Texas.
Yes, I've seen that report, I'm talking specifically about the SF Chamber of Commerce. My point is, people will leave Cali for a variety of reasons. People are leaving Texas for a variety of reasons. But, when SF says 40% are going to leave the city....where are they going? Not necessarily Texas.
The other thing, I wonder how Texas's recent power problems and abortion ban is going to change migration patterns. As usual, this is not something that is black and white. There are many things happening here at once, and it doesn't mean California is dying, nor does it mean Texas is the best place to live.
I only report the news. Based on what I am hearing the L.A. and San Fran of to-day is much worse than what I knew back when.
"The living expenses are the main reason why California is losing population these days. In most cases, Texas is their new home because it is much cheaper for living. California is losing the younger population and that is the main problem, older people are holding in one place."
The following article is from when Brown was Governor and has only gotten worse since.
"California has a long term spending problem that no one seems to want to deal with. But “bankrupt” or “financially in trouble” today is not an issue, they are running a budget surplus right now and Gov. Brown has done his best to hold off the people who want to spend the excess. How long that will happen depends on who gets elected in the next cycle, but the people running are not known for their “spendthrift” personalities.
the issue rests on the cost in California of public pensions and health care. Back during the first go around with Mr. Brown when the budget was a mess. The made an offer to the public employee unions to give them more in benefits “in the future” through a generous pension in return for fewer demands of payments now in the form of salary. That worked, but now the bill is coming due. The state consistently underfunded the pension system so now it’s costing a LOT to keep that system afloat. Public pensions are going to consume more and more of the state budget year over year, leaving less for other stuff.
The other issue is that California relies heavily on taxes on the wealthy, which get a large portion of their income from capital gains. IPOs in California give California very large amounts of revenue. But those are quite cyclical and in down years California has a shortfall.
What then happens is that the state declares that the “rich” aren’t paying enough and then implement tax increases, the last time done by a ballot proposition asking the people “how about raising taxes on those guys over there”. As this continues, the people who are wealthy are asking themselves why they live in California and are considering moving. (Tiger Woods did it but didn’t say anything, Phil Mickelson said he was thinking about it and was skewered for it) And given that the wealthy pay a huge portion of the California income tax, losing one wealthy person means that something like 10 middle class people have to pay more."
https://www.quora.com/Is-California-going-bankrupt
"The living expenses are the main reason why California is losing population these days. In most cases, Texas is their new home because it is much cheaper for living. California is losing the younger population and that is the main problem, older people are holding in one place."
The following article is from when Brown was Governor and has only gotten worse since.
"California has a long term spending problem that no one seems to want to deal with. But “bankrupt” or “financially in trouble” today is not an issue, they are running a budget surplus right now and Gov. Brown has done his best to hold off the people who want to spend the excess. How long that will happen depends on who gets elected in the next cycle, but the people running are not known for their “spendthrift” personalities.
the issue rests on the cost in California of public pensions and health care. Back during the first go around with Mr. Brown when the budget was a mess. The made an offer to the public employee unions to give them more in benefits “in the future” through a generous pension in return for fewer demands of payments now in the form of salary. That worked, but now the bill is coming due. The state consistently underfunded the pension system so now it’s costing a LOT to keep that system afloat. Public pensions are going to consume more and more of the state budget year over year, leaving less for other stuff.
The other issue is that California relies heavily on taxes on the wealthy, which get a large portion of their income from capital gains. IPOs in California give California very large amounts of revenue. But those are quite cyclical and in down years California has a shortfall.
What then happens is that the state declares that the “rich” aren’t paying enough and then implement tax increases, the last time done by a ballot proposition asking the people “how about raising taxes on those guys over there”. As this continues, the people who are wealthy are asking themselves why they live in California and are considering moving. (Tiger Woods did it but didn’t say anything, Phil Mickelson said he was thinking about it and was skewered for it) And given that the wealthy pay a huge portion of the California income tax, losing one wealthy person means that something like 10 middle class people have to pay more."
https://www.quora.com/Is-California-going-bankrupt
They had a net loss I think just under 300,000 last year. Texas is the #1 destination. Arizona is up there.
As For single payer it was killed by the Democratic party at the caucus level. Look it up.
Darts, your story is fake news.
Its bad math.
A Shocking Number of Californians Are Moving to Texas Unless You Do Basic Math
A new white paper from a location data firm and reported by the media confirms nothing.
"It really hurts to be among the ranks of population losers. California had a bigger per-capita loss than Mississippi, West Virginia, North Dakota, Louisiana, and Massachusetts. Only Illinois, New York, and the District of Columbia fared worse — "
New York (another hardcore liberal state) actually did worse then California.
A Shocking Number of Californians Are Moving to Texas Unless You Do Basic Math
The population of the United States minus Texas—because people already in Texas cannot move to Texas—is 300.86 million people. California’s population is 39.35 million, or 13 percent of the U.S.’ non-Texas population. Therefore, more than 13 percent of Texas’ new residents would have to be Californians in order for there to be something of note going on here.
But that’s not the case. According to Placer.ai, which uses “foot traffic data” gleaned by tracking people's phones, 11.1 percent of new Texans from July 2019 and July 2022 are from California. That’s actually slightly less than one would expect based on an even distribution. If anything, the pertinent question from Placer.ai’s data is: Why are so few Californians moving to Texas?
From what I read, the new head of the Democrats(a lady eho's name escapes me) at that time was also a former lobbyist for the private medical interests. So pretty sure it was a top down decision.
Dartsy, Quora is crap and I block it off my inbox because I don't want to listen to average Joes pretend they know shit that they don't.
There are relatively few states that have a booming urban culture that attracts immigrants. People don't immigrate to Detroit in droves. Nor to West Va. TX is highly urban. DFW and Houston are the 4th and 5th largest cities in the US and growing. Austin and SA are also booming. Immigrants go for the jobs. They don't immigrate to Laredo or Pecos, small conservative towns out in West TX.
Some might - I suppose - immigrate to TX because they love Greg Abbott and the idea of strutting to MacD's with an AR-15 under your arm. But most immigrants get job offers in corporations in the Big 4 TX mega-cities, or are related to someone who does. If those people immigrate from CA, they probably take their CA political values with them. They don't leave CA because they hate gays and want to carry a rifle to the mall.
Or they want to live in a mega-city and SF is too expensive. DFW is very pleasant and is about the same size as Toronto. Houston is apparently not as nice, but it's still mega.
TX is a purple state and is getting bluer every election cycle. That's because the 4 large cities are now the majority of TX's population and - even with gerrymandering - there's only so long that TX will stay republican.
So the idea that Californians flee CA because of pronouns is silly. The homeless issue is disturbing and TX is probably better in that regard. But that's not due to the fact that Greg Abbott loves school shootings and that's pretty cool. It's due to far more complex societal factors.
You got it right here. People think states are more popular now because of politics. That's bullshit.
California, like many US states, is going down the drain because of it's high cost of living.
California is like Switzerland without any social measures Switzerland has.
