Can we rely on Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin?

[|2 /-\ | /|/]

I've been following financial markets for 30 years and have only been following crypto since the May crash last summer and was very curious how Musk pumped/dumped DOGE and made a killing. I know very well that I can't beat the market and I can't beat the big boy whales, I just want to figure out what they're
doing and get on the bus and get off the bus and just make my fair share. Not sure of your ETH POS statement ? Please clarify , I just want to learn everything and hear others views. I got fooled by following YouTube T/A so called experts. They're just shills for certain coins or they're pumping ByBit or Phemex exchanges. I
can't believe I got fooled by all those Dubai clowns posting as technical analysis experts. Some of them are making millions just off of fools like moi clicking on their stupid click bait titles and videos. From each BTC halving to Bull Peak calculated by number of days : Bull Cycle 1 378 days, Bull Cycle 2 528 days, last BTC halving around 3/16/20, so just simple extrapolation of Bull Cycle 3 peak by my rough estimates if you believe in the theory of cycles extending themselves as we go further out, I would say fall of 2022 or later, we will hit some big Bitcoin numbers ( ETH and Alt coins to follow a little bit longer ) , and then get ready for the next bear cycle and try to time it and back up the truck when you think we hit near bottom. ( my cycle days are just rough estimates, I didn't have the exact BTC halving dates in front of me as we speak ).

https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/ Everyone who believes we still have time to make some huge gains from Crypto please check out this page and go down to the graph which is based on about 11 metrics and for the the first 2 Bitcoin cycles , this Colin guy has been pretty bang on and claims we are not even half way to the bull peak yet. Hope everyone who reads this crypto thread makes some huge coin. Good luck all and feel free to add any of your own views /comments. This Colin guy thinks we still have lots of time to back up the truck and make some $$$.

I think during the ETH proof of stake transition we will see a huge dump or a huge pump. I don’ think it will go sideways or have an insignificant impact. I think it will be a drastic impact and will impact all crypto in a huge way and cascade to many industries. Many people think it will shoot up in price probably to ~$40k. I am betting on it tanking because it’s opposite to what is expected and all the miners cashing out on their profits and recouping their investment.

Also think of all miners now making a killing mining ETH, plus the big boys who own the GPU farms. Don’t you think they will want to sell and recoup their investment. What about the price of GPU cards it will flood the market. Probably once the big boys start doing it the rest will follow. Question is do we think people will be interested to stake it, will they dump it, will this make it more scarce like what happens during BTC halving. If people do stake it means they need at least 32 ETH, meaning it will become centralized. I think it will be a HUGE cascading impact. They will always choose the opposite of what the majority expects and this is ATM undetermined.

This could also be good for BTC because of the decentralized aspect in theory and proof of work even though a few accounts control it, through complex algos and their ability to move it as they please.

I don’t have a lot. Just hold like 6 different crypto and setting targets for myself to put stop losses once I get a certain percentage minimum back, then increasing this as time goes, regardless of the time and regardless if it goes to 0. I know I will never win against the algos and trading psychology. The only way to win is to take all emotion out and become a bot where you calculate all risks from 0 to like 100x and everything in between and set targets for yourself so you are prepared ahead of time and never during the movement.

 

[LiveInTorontoPartyInMontreal]

I think during the ETH proof of stake transition we will see a huge dump or a huge pump. I don’ think it will go sideways or have an insignificant impact. I think it will be a drastic impact and will impact all crypto in a huge way and cascade to many industries. Many people think it will shoot up in price probably to ~$40k. I am betting on it tanking because it’s opposite to what is expected and all the miners cashing out on their profits and recouping their investment.

Also think of all miners now making a killing mining ETH, plus the big boys who own the GPU farms. Don’t you think they will want to sell and recoup their investment. What about the price of GPU cards it will flood the market. Probably once the big boys start doing it the rest will follow. Question is do we think people will be interested to stake it, will they dump it, will this make it more scarce like what happens during BTC halving. If people do stake it means they need at least 32 ETH, meaning it will become centralized. I think it will be a HUGE cascading impact. They will always choose the opposite of what the majority expects and this is ATM undetermined.

This could also be good for BTC because of the decentralized aspect in theory and proof of work even though a few accounts control it, through complex algos and their ability to move it as they please.

I don’t have a lot. Just hold like 6 different crypto and setting targets for myself to put stop losses once I get a certain percentage minimum back, then increasing this as time goes, regardless of the time and regardless if it goes to 0. I know I will never win against the algos and trading psychology. The only way to win is to take all emotion out and become a bot where you calculate all risks from 0 to like 100x and everything in between and set targets for yourself so you are prepared ahead of time and never during the movement.

Smartest line I've heard in awhile, yes, "take all the emotion out". Not sure if you play Blackjack and that time you're playing a huge hand and you get a doubling down situation, people always turn to the person beside them and ask what they should do ? I say the same thing, take out all the emotion and just reach and push out the right number of chips to double your bet. The only time to take down the bank is when the probabilities are on our side, right ? Hope you make some money ! ( I do know the term proof of stake, but at the time I was having a brain freeze, I thought you were referring to " Point of Sale", many retailers starting to accept crypto as payment just showing long term adoption is here, but we're trying to make some money, too , in the short game. We are all HODL'ing for the long term, right ?

 

[sprite09]

"Serious" projects like Solana, Polkadot, Chainlink and Cardano ( going to hit 0.92 cents in a minute from $ 3.09 ATH) are getting hammered right now. Is this current
Bull cycle about to extend like most market experts predict or did we already hit a double top and now we're in a true bear market ( for a year or two ? ) ?

as altcoins, of course they are, because they have lower liquidity and act as leveraged positions to btc & eth. so when BTC goes up, the alts go up even more and vice versa.

what i meant was in previous bear cycles, many alts would go to zero or have some value, but they get abadoned (so they're just dead projects that people are still speculating on). so, some are arguing the "serious" ones will survive/not get abandoned in the bear market, but, again, that remains to be seen.

regarding your second question, nobody has a clue--they can draw all the lines they want; look at the on-chain stuff; etc; etc, but still don't have a clue. What I will say is that you're getting adoption from institutions, corporations, and gov'ts. so, those fundamentals, regardless of how stupid you may think they are, will IMO make it run up higher. ofc, this is NFA.

 

[sprite09]

I've been following financial markets for 30 years and have only been following crypto since the May crash last summer and was very curious how Musk pumped/dumped DOGE and made a killing. I know very well that I can't beat the market and I can't beat the big boy whales, I just want to figure out what they're
doing and get on the bus and get off the bus and just make my fair share. Not sure of your ETH POS statement ? Please clarify , I just want to learn everything and hear others views. I got fooled by following YouTube T/A so called experts. They're just shills for certain coins or they're pumping ByBit or Phemex exchanges. I
can't believe I got fooled by all those Dubai clowns posting as technical analysis experts. Some of them are making millions just off of fools like moi clicking on their stupid click bait titles and videos. From each BTC halving to Bull Peak calculated by number of days : Bull Cycle 1 378 days, Bull Cycle 2 528 days, last BTC halving around 3/16/20, so just simple extrapolation of Bull Cycle 3 peak by my rough estimates if you believe in the theory of cycles extending themselves as we go further out, I would say fall of 2022 or later, we will hit some big Bitcoin numbers ( ETH and Alt coins to follow a little bit longer ) , and then get ready for the next bear cycle and try to time it and back up the truck when you think we hit near bottom. ( my cycle days are just rough estimates, I didn't have the exact BTC halving dates in front of me as we speak ).

https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/ Everyone who believes we still have time to make some huge gains from Crypto please check out this page and go down to the graph which is based on about 11 metrics and for the the first 2 Bitcoin cycles , this Colin guy has been pretty bang on and claims we are not even half way to the bull peak yet. Hope everyone who reads this crypto thread makes some huge coin. Good luck all and feel free to add any of your own views /comments. This Colin guy thinks we still have lots of time to back up the truck and make some $$$.

you need to take profits--DCA in, DCA out. e.g., if you 2x your money, take out your original investment. then it's just house money you're playing with.

I don't think some YouTube channels are a waste of time---without them, I wouldn't know of certain coins that I bought (E.g., I heard of Sol, bought at $20 USD, then 10x). Matic, AVAX, fantom are few others i've made decent gains on.

but, the channels that try to predict prices and where the market is going I completely disregard.

 

[sprite09]

A week and a half ago, half of the so called YouTube T/A experts were calling for Bitcoin to head back to the 50,000 - 52,000 area. The other half were calling
for a retracement back to 30,000 - 36,000 area. With all the lower volumes, Fed FUD and Ukraine/Russia FUD we're back to the 38,000 range. When we were at 45k I
would of bet my left hand that we were going back to the 50/52k area. But no, the manipulators and their AI trading Bots following set algos won out again . Most
crypto experts say we have to retrace 80 to 90% from 69,000 ATH's area to shake out all the weak hands and the rookie 100x leveraged day trader trying to blow his
brains out. Just imagine since the ATH's early November, billions and billions of dollars have been lost as the strong hands shakeout the weak hands of retail trying to supplement his income. These bear whales are relentless. We can't start rallying back up until after the Capitulation Stage, that is when the average Joe, like you and I throw in our towels and swear off crypto for good. We sell our $ 10,000 Bitcoin to the Elon Musks and then his whale friends all get into their coercion state and take Bitcoin back up to 100k or higher. They always have to ride the train for the max ride. When Bitcoin hits 100k, you and I go mortgage our house and FOMO in and buy at 101k and then Elon Musk calls all his friends and tell them it's time to rinse and repeat. Ah, the cycle of how the rich get richer. UGH .

that's why don't buy on pumps...never! OR to take the emotion and stress out of it, follow a strict DCA scheudle...e.g. get paid biweekly? then put some money into crypto regardless of the price.

DCAing, for the stock market index at least (S&P 500), has shown to be a proven strategy--even versus a person who timed the bottom perfectly. And, for BTC and ETH, it has also proven to be a winning strategy because they've been proven for many years, so far, to go up over time.

 

[LiveInTorontoPartyInMontreal]

you need to take profits--DCA in, DCA out. e.g., if you 2x your money, take out your original investment. then it's just house money you're playing with.

I don't think some YouTube channels are a waste of time---without them, I wouldn't know of certain coins that I bought (E.g., I heard of Sol, bought at $20 USD, then 10x). Matic, AVAX, fantom are few others i've made decent gains on.

but, the channels that try to predict prices and where the market is going I completely disregard.

For this cycle if Bitcoin ever finds a bottom, whether it be $29,500 or $ 33,500 ( of recent ), your SOL will come back daily $ 10 to $ 20, no problem. MATIC will fly and ADA will finally rebound. I don't know it's background or fundamentals but just watching the way it trades , I like ALGO. If you have some throw away money, then my picks are: VET, COTI and CRO. Again, NFA.

 

[sprite09]

For this cycle if Bitcoin ever finds a bottom, whether it be $29,500 or $ 33,500 ( of recent ), your SOL will come back daily $ 10 to $ 20, no problem. MATIC will fly and ADA will finally rebound. I don't know it's background or fundamentals but just watching the way it trades , I like ALGO. If you have some throw away money, then my picks are: VET, COTI and CRO. Again, NFA.

BTC almost did hit $30k, and the lowest SOL ever closed was $83 on the daily chart. When a coin makes a big parabolic run up, it's difficult to bring it down to its previous parabolic run-up price even if BTC drops a lot (think dogecoin, shiba inu).

"Your SOL"...I don't treat it like a baby and thus don't have an emotional attachment to any coin; it's a cryptocurrency and I will sell it when I'm satisfied with the gains (which I have).

 

[|2 /-\ | /|/]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497549813205848068

it is the way

 

[poker]

 

[poker]

I guess the issue is that many people who bough in early are now millionaires (or more), but the question remains, if you start buying shit now, are you really making an investment? I mean, will one of the thousands of tokens that get minted be worth anything in two years? Plus, unlike the stock market, how do you make wise decisions on a token's value? We saw this past week how a large number saw massive drops in value. Is it easy to get your money out of the system?

I know a little about all of this, but at the same time, not enough to feel confident in investing.

Agreed. It’s not investing. It’s gambling. I gambled a $100. Fun money.

 

[|2 /-\ | /|/]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501545207988473856

How about them pyramids?

 

[richaceg]

No, Bitcoin isn't an investment...you need to afford heavy lossees if you wanna play with crypto....now if you want to play with some crytpo currency...start small. I made some money on Loopring bought it at 0.80 cents. unloaded at $3.20. Bought CRO for $0.49 cents...

 

[|2 /-\ | /|/]

Biden just put out an executive order on cryptocurrencies — here's everything that's in it

U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order on Wednesday calling on the government to examine the risks and benefits of cryptocurrencies.

www.cnbc.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501570133436743680

and just like that crypto is not a pyramid scam anymore

 

[|2 /-\ | /|/]

I don't understand it, and nobody has been able to explain it to me satisfactorily. Anybody in the business I respect has warned me to "stay away". Guys like Warren Buffet and Larry Berman. So, not for me. I read this really interesting book once about tulip bulbs, and how crowds can go crazy.

you mean this one. I see said the blind man.

 

[sprite09]

I don't understand it, and nobody has been able to explain it to me satisfactorily. Anybody in the business I respect has warned me to "stay away". Guys like Warren Buffet and Larry Berman. So, not for me. I read this really interesting book once about tulip bulbs, and how crowds can go crazy.

wrt Warren buffet, he implicitly didn't understand Apple and amazon and hence why he got in late...just saying

I'll let you what blockchain is about ...imagine public town square
and if I want to send you some money, I basically write a cheeque to you and post it in the town square.

the miners try to confirm the cheques ...the first one confirm the cheque carve them into stone tablets that then go into the public square. he then gets rewarded Bitcoin for being the first one to do so (because he has the best computer ) and all the other miners simply wasted their electricity (by using their computers) to try to solve the problem ...this is what's called proof of work

Think of the miners as the record-keepers who manage all of this. They validate the checks, stack them into a bundle (called a block), and then they get paid for their role in the process.

another consensus mechanism is called proof of stake which is uses far less electricity ...instead of everyone trying to finish the race first (first to confirm a transaction) and everyone uses electricity , proof of stake picks one person to do it based on how much of that cryptocurrency (eg cardano aka ada ) he has locked in on the network and how long (longer the better chance ) plus some randomness to try to keep things fair for the little guys .

or....this is the more concise definition ...cryptocurrencies are spreadsheets that tend to appreciate in value over time and the some of the money goes towards paying the people (miners or validators) to keep the spreadsheet honest

 

[Valcazar]

I'll let you what blockchain is about ...imagine public town square
and if I want to send you some money, I basically write a cheeque to you and post it in the town square.

the miners try to confirm the cheques ...the first one confirm the cheque carve them into stone tablets that then go into the public square. he then gets rewarded Bitcoin for being the first one to do so (because he has the best computer ) and all the other miners simply wasted their electricity (by using their computers) to try to solve the problem ...this is what's called proof of work

Think of the miners as the record-keepers who manage all of this. They validate the checks, stack them into a bundle (called a block), and then they get paid for their role in the process.

another consensus mechanism is called proof of stake which is uses far less electricity ...instead of everyone trying to finish the race first (first to confirm a transaction) and everyone uses electricity , proof of stake picks one person to do it based on how much of that cryptocurrency (eg cardano aka ada ) he has locked in on the network and how long (longer the better chance ) plus some randomness to try to keep things fair for the little guys .

or....this is the more concise definition ...cryptocurrencies are spreadsheets that tend to appreciate in value over time and the some of the money goes towards paying the people (miners or validators) to keep the spreadsheet honest

Not a terrible description.

 

[sprite09]

As I said. Nobody has been able to explain it to me in a satisfactory manner. I know, I'm slow. My degree is in History. What could I possibly know about bubbles? Or tulips for that matter? I must admit, I smiled a bit that time that guy with the passcode died and left a bunch of folks unable to access their "money". Lots of people missed the boat on Apple. Me included. That was my fault though. I read Ben Graham a long time ago. I just forgot that the phone I was holding and the computer I was working on when I first got them were made by Apple. I forgot that bit about "buy what you know"; never made the connection. Still, Warren, and his buddies, are among the wealthiest people in the world. As they describe it: "It will end in tears". Good enough for me.

I think what you mean by explaining is the application of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. I'm not trying to convince you of it, but I'll give you an example: I can send a stable coin (whose value is tied one to one to the US dollar) to someone across the world and it's done within seconds or minutes (not days). that person can then use a service in his own country to either convert to fiat and access the money (often immediately) or use it to pay for goods and services (I recently booked a hotel and notice they were accepting cryptocurrencies).

I didn't smile about quadriga, but found it astonishing that some academically smart people had so much bitcoin (eg $400k equivalent) on the exchange and not store it safely on a hardware wallet (and it's not like the exchange was giving them interest either). so they stupidly treated the exchange like it was a bank that was too big to fail or with deposit insurance

Warren ...wealthy. .says avoid crypto, but ... ...Elon, richest guy in the world (depending on tesla price), owns crypto... billionaire Mark Cuban , owns crypto. Kevin oleary recently stated 20 percent of his portfolio is in crypto. ray dalio owns crypto.

could it go to zero ? sure, but I'd argue that if it to were, it should done so a long time ago (Bitcoin been around since 2009).

but, in the end, if you're not comfortable with it, then, yes, avoid it.

 

[LiveInTorontoPartyInMontreal]

I'm not comfortable with crypto either , example , last week I was 60/40 pro crypto, right now I'm 40/60. I know why that Satoshi guy created Bitcoin and I like the concept of a digital currency going forward. Yes, there's tons of new adoption and regulations forthcoming from Biden to the Fed to the SEC to the Jamie Dimon's of JPM to PayPal and ATM's. But, in the short term , the Elon Musk's and his buddies who control most of the Bitcoin want to take advantage of Bitcoin markets. They don't want retail to prosper from it and they pump it and crash it when ever they want. They usually do it when there's tons of FUD in the air , or weekends, or times with the smallest volume candles. They even boldly come out and warn us on Twitter/ YouTube. They want to take it back down to July 2021's low of about $ 29,500, and then they'll send it back up. The daytraders and leverage traders who use 10x or 100x margin exacerbate any rally or crash because millions of holders get liquidated in seconds. I don't want to get too technical here, but take any BTC Trading View chart, break it down to 1 mins or 5 mins intervals and put on H/A or solid candles and just look at the action during a few minutes span when there are pumps and crashes like 3,000 to 5,000 dollars. Look at the charts like a CSI Miami analyst and you can tell those pumps / crashes are man made. Organic markets with the Average Joe and the Average Day trader sitting at his pc terminal trading 50 dollars of bitcoin creates zig zags in charts, not parabolic moons and avalanches. The algo trading bots intention is to wipe out all liquidity in the market to wipe out all the on stop and limit orders. If I had a $ 50 million dollar Bitcoin order I would not be executing it in the public on Coinbase on a statutory holiday weekend during dinner. I would get my accounts together and buy or sell it Over The Counter not on Coinbase or Bybit. The only reason I would do it on that latter basis is if I wanted the public to see the long green or red candle wicks and get the public to FOMO in , in the direction of the Bull or Bear trap. Makes one go hmmmmm ? If I knew that Wizard behind the blockchain moving the BTC markets , I would get on for short rides and take my day trading profits and shut up. Is crypto legit or was it designed by Mr Ponzi ? Never try to beat the market, the market is always right and the house always wins. Especially in LV on Saturday nights when all the playas are out.

 

[sprite09]

I'm not comfortable with crypto either , example , last week I was 60/40 pro crypto, right now I'm 40/60. I know why that Satoshi guy created Bitcoin and I like the concept of a digital currency going forward. Yes, there's tons of new adoption and regulations forthcoming from Biden to the Fed to the SEC to the Jamie Dimon's of JPM to PayPal and ATM's. But, in the short term , the Elon Musk's and his buddies who control most of the Bitcoin want to take advantage of Bitcoin markets. They don't want retail to prosper from it and they pump it and crash it when ever they want. They usually do it when there's tons of FUD in the air , or weekends, or times with the smallest volume candles. They even boldly come out and warn us on Twitter/ YouTube. They want to take it back down to July 2021's low of about $ 29,500, and then they'll send it back up. The daytraders and leverage traders who use 10x or 100x margin exacerbate any rally or crash because millions of holders get liquidated in seconds. I don't want to get too technical here, but take any BTC Trading View chart, break it down to 1 mins or 5 mins intervals and put on H/A or solid candles and just look at the action during a few minutes span when there are pumps and crashes like 3,000 to 5,000 dollars. Look at the charts like a CSI Miami analyst and you can tell those pumps / crashes are man made. Organic markets with the Average Joe and the Average Day trader sitting at his pc terminal trading 50 dollars of bitcoin creates zig zags in charts, not parabolic moons and avalanches. The algo trading bots intention is to wipe out all liquidity in the market to wipe out all the on stop and limit orders. If I had a $ 50 million dollar Bitcoin order I would not be executing it in the public on Coinbase on a statutory holiday weekend during dinner. I would get my accounts together and buy or sell it Over The Counter not on Coinbase or Bybit. The only reason I would do it on that latter basis is if I wanted the public to see the long green or red candle wicks and get the public to FOMO in , in the direction of the Bull or Bear trap. Makes one go hmmmmm ? If I knew that Wizard behind the blockchain moving the BTC markets , I would get on for short rides and take my day trading profits and shut up. Is crypto legit or was it designed by Mr Ponzi ? Never try to beat the market, the market is always right and the house always wins. Especially in LV on Saturday nights when all the playas are out.

what you described sounds like the stock market

crypto is strongly correlated with traditional markets now (esp Nasdaq) ...so if you think the stock market will bounce back, crypto will likely do the same but even more (being more volatile )

 

[LiveInTorontoPartyInMontreal]

You mean stock markets are rigged ?