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Stock market will go one of two ways, everything depends on Thursday + My prediction.

stinkynuts

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Jan 4, 2005
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Thursday is the most important day for stocks, by far.

This is a most critical day since CPI data will come out before the open.

It will go one of two ways.

1)CPI is higher than expected. Stocks will tank another 10-20% in the upcoming days. A big increase in CPI will cause massive damage, and this will force the Fed to act even more aggerssively, and raise rates even more. Expect no relief for the stock market for many months.

2)CPI comes in lower than expected. This will be the turning point. Inflation is now under control and dropping. It will drop rapidly from here and soon we will be well below 5%. The Fed has a justification to be a bit more dovish, and will increase the Federal funds rate by 0.5% instead of 0.75%. This is when everyone will rush to pick up deals. The stock market will soar. I mean, truly soar. I wouldn't be suprised if we end up the year positive. These last three months are typically the best during a midterm year:


But, wait, there's more. 2023, without any doubt will be a phenomenal year. EVERY single year after a midterm year has been amazing for stocks.

EVERYTHING is riding on Thursday morning's report.

How likely is CPI going to drop? Oil was cheaper in September, so that should help. But core CPI was on an upward rise, so it's impossible to tell. Although overall inflation is trending downards, there are occasional upticks. If we are so very unfortunate to have such an uptick on Thursday, it's game over. Inflation higher than the previous month would be a calamity for stocks.


But I came across some really good news. Inflation expectations are a VERY good predictor of inflation.
Watch from 2:08

So, this is what I think will happen:
1)On Thursday CPI drops to below 8%, below the forecasted 8.0%
2)Markets rally
3)For the next two weeks, markets go back and forth, awaiting the Fed's decision on November 2
4)Markets don't like uncertainty. There is a further drop in the market, reaching a new bottom in late October
5)This is when you should buy! Stocks that have been hit the hardest will rebound the strongest (Tesla, Nvidia, Shopify, Netflix, Carnival, Norwegian, QQQ, or more conservatively any S&P index fund.)
6)November 2. The Fed pivots. It's a 0.5% increase instead of 0.75% increase. Markets rally strong for the next two months straight, recouping almost all of the years's losses, possibly even being slightly up.
7)The midterm election is over. The fear of rising inflation is over. The world economy is recovering. It's a new start. Markets rally in 2023 like we've never seen. We see returns for the indexes in 2023 in the range of 10-20% or more.
 
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thenewace

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Mar 19, 2011
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my spy puts went from +20% at open to -20% in two hours yikes...

anyone thinks cdn energy stocks will finish the year strong fro current levels?
 

Ceiling Cat

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Feb 25, 2009
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My guess is that many people think that this is the bottom of the market, and are now buying in.
All it takes is a big economy, big bank/financial institution to tak, some bad news to start a world contagion. There will be many ups and dows before we see a stable economy.
 
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